Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[booferking]

And then 120hr chalk and cheese.

[Met4Cast]

UKMO isn't backing down, the GFS has taken small steps towards but but certainly no big climbdown. 

It'll be an interesting ECM this evening, that's for sure!

[mulzy]

UKMO day 6 look good to me!

 

Edited November 22, 2017 by mulzy

[Derecho]

UKMO looks superb at T144



GFS meanwhile much messier and looks prone to toppling, very unclear picture at the moment unless there is a link with heights over Scandi

Edited November 22, 2017 by Quicksilver1989

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

UKMO day 6 look good to me!

 

Looks like the Low will steam through, Warmer uppers too.

[mulzy]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Looks like the Low will steam through, Warmer uppers too.

That's yesterday's chart - for some reason it is reverting back to that.

Try http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&time=144&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0

[Derecho]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Looks like the Low will steam through, Warmer uppers too.

For some reason the incorrect chart is showing when we use the WZ link, T144 shows a very clean northerly and strong heights to the NW.

[karlos1983]

Here's Today's UKMO 144, I'm happy with that, although not sure how long term this would be, energy pushing out of Canada!

Edited November 22, 2017 by karlos1983

[frosty ground]

The GFS is not rubbish either. High further north and further west.

[Met4Cast]

Beautiful WAA into Greenland at +120 on the UKMO

[feb1991blizzard]

Ironically though there is some very cold air to the North and I have a feeling despite looking poor in the first half, ive got a feeling this GFS will turn out to be an absolute stonker in FI, wouldn't put any faith in it though no matter what it shows, the evolution is just too messy to be bang on the money.

[weirpig]

!44  UKMO  heights stretching right up towards the pole.

[Man With Beard]

So ARGEPE T114 and UKMO T120 both clear the lows through the Atlantic

  

The GFS is struggling to do so again by this time

but sort of makes it in the end

GFS is never to be discounted when it comes to Greenland at D4/D5. 

EDIT: UKMO T144 is an absolutely fantastic split into the Pole, in exactly the position needed if Dec 2010 is to be reenacted.

 

 

Edited November 22, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ironically though there is some very cold air to the North and I have a feeling despite looking poor in the first half, ive got a feeling this GFS will turn out to be an absolute stonker in FI, wouldn't put any faith in it though no matter what it shows, the evolution is just too messy to be bang on the money.

Yup I still think the GFS is a good run and is actually fairly cold next week. Though its open to being toned down whereas the UKMO is great because it sends WAA deep into the Arctic.

Good output all in all, just on the search for some more sustained deeper cold which is why the UKMO is of particular interest.

Edited November 22, 2017 by Quicksilver1989

[Met4Cast]

UKMO at 144 has strong heights in the Atlantic up towards Greenland and a cross polar flow, stunning chart hemispherically and locally.

The GFS at 144 is, well.. quite frankly an absolute mess.

Given the bullishness of the UKMO I'd be willing to bet the GFS is calling this wrong, as long as the ECM sticks with it's output tonight too then I'd expect to see the 18z climbdown, or at least begin to climbdown.

If the ECM swings the other way then I'll start to become a bit less optimistic.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Ironically though there is some very cold air to the North and I have a feeling despite looking poor in the first half, ive got a feeling this GFS will turn out to be an absolute stonker in FI, wouldn't put any faith in it though no matter what it shows, the evolution is just too messy to be bang on the money.

Yes Feb,looks like an atlantic/Siberian link up might be on the cards on this run and a more NE'ly element too to the wind flow.

[knocker]

Massive difference with the track and configuration of the front and wave on Monday from the 06 Still snow likely in the Scottish mountains

 

[The Northern Ramper]

As you were from last night really, Gfs vs Euro's which at this rate is going to last until T12 ? 

Toys are at the ready to be thrown by some, toys which date back to February 1991 alledgedly.

Nick has informed cobra of the potential climb down and Crewe is looking at its first snow shower since 2010 but the locals will still struggle to crack a smile.

Oh and it's still Autumn, or so the Netweather version of a broken clock will tell us with each model run.

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Gem has this little zipper

[Mucka]

I can't count the times over the years the GFS has shown shortwave spoilers around SW Greenland to trash a potential cold spell - the problem is, it often picks up on them before UKMO and ECM and is proved correct.

This is a little different in that it is not finding a pesky shortwave that wasn't previously modelled, it is simply modelling the interaction with the Atlantic ridge differently.

Given how much GFS has chopped and changed with this behaviour there is no reason to believe the 12z is onto something for now.

Better to look at the bigger picture and in that regard it has taken another small step toward the Euros with keeping the pattern amplified.

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

UKMO looks superb at T144



 

You were a bit quick there Quicksilver, that's yesterdays

Edited November 22, 2017 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

      

Better effort compared to the 06z and 00z runs, a stiff north easterly bringing some heavy showers onto north sea coasts. The precipitation would probablybe mostly rain with some hail and sleet in any heavier bursts. 

The UKMO looks more amplified at day 6 though.

A deeper upstrem trough with sharper ridging in the Atlantic which should allow cold air to dig further south into Europe. It would probably evolve in a simlar pattern to the ECM this morning with some sort of cut off high developing and cutting off low pressure over central Europe. 

Overall the outlook looks chilly to cold with the risk of winry precipitation but still a litle too early in the season for proper white out conditions.... just yet

[The Northern Ramper]

Yep still Autumn.

[Allseasons-Si]

The gem ejecting the shortwave a lot quicker at 96 than it's 00z run and a bit quicker than the ukmo but not much in it,

the gfs...well.....

but we cannot discount it

Edited November 22, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[bluearmy]

My eye is drawn to the ukmo T144 failing to push the jet across the s tip of Greenland as gfs does. Thinking back to the amplified Atlantic patterns on snowy winters past, that was always a good sign.