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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Overnight runs about as good as we could hope for, so that is good news! Was always going to be difficult to match or better the 12z of yesterday!

Better news is the Spreads at +144 & +168 on the ECM, look south! So confidence has to be that heigh pressure to our south is to be replaced.. At least that's how I read it, which would of course be great news.

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.200ed285abf3236b0ee7352ce5534a5b.gifEEH1-168.thumb.gif.5355b5c5ced953d5fc7d69580266797e.gif

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.c3ca787b66f3b42c9ed7b559300ed106.gifEEH1-192.thumb.gif.14243bca0fe7522931b21434ffd4795c.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a good post...dry and cold would be my hope to usher in December- As steve has posted, the EC  mean is really encouraging this morning.

Just look at the last two December and be eternally thankful we are not (as of yet) staring into a zonal barrel.

Cheers north west :) can't believe my post was removed though. Unbelievable. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps are broadly undercutting Atlantic - best to take a step back methinks 

Quite a few Easterlies then?!

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22 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Quite a few Easterlies then?!

If you look at the T2Ms for debilt the answer is yes- & some slack easterlies as well..

The atlantic partially making easterly inroads is favoured but a high probability of this not making the UK...

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps are broadly undercutting Atlantic - best to take a step back methinks 

Would that be suggestive of the block edging into the GIN type area Blue :)

I like the undercutting element to the post- probably reflective of the extended meto - 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has winds coming down from the north/northeast

ukm2.2017112900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.10d34e754fd22b04362b2650bd3ed957.png

Liking the look of the UKMO 168 Gavin- can see the azores high has been displaced north:)

Edit looks dreadful for any Brits taking a late November break to Southern Spain tho, probably cool and really wet.yuk.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Liking the look of the UKMO 168 Gavin- can see the azores high has been displaced north:)

Edit looks dreadful for any Brits taking a late November break to Southern Spain tho, probably cool and really wet.yuk.

Oh well, my heart bleeds for them.........:nonono::rofl:

Really liking the look of that 168 chart, its a Peach!! 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Liking the look of the UKMO 168 Gavin- can see the azores high has been displaced north:)

Edit looks dreadful for any Brits taking a late November break to Southern Spain tho, probably cool and really wet.yuk.

That looks a great chart, the vertical alignment of the mid Atlantic high pressure would indicate no way through for the jet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Still seeing the issue unfortunately of good weather patterns on paper but very underwhelming upper air temperatures so if those charts came off then don't expect too see much of the white stuff that's for sure. Problem is we are just feeding off scraps and too many mild sectors coming into play.

Still, there is going to be variation in the detail and the trend for an Atlantic high is still there so it's not going to be mild that's for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, mountain shadow said:

That looks a great chart, the vertical alignment of the mid Atlantic high pressure would indicate no way through for the jet. 

Looking at the precip i think the jets already slamming into Spain..

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
On 19/11/2017 at 13:16, gottolovethisweather said:

Likewise, me too. Colder and snowier prospects involving a few days, namely Monday and Wednesday for parts of Scotland (not all hilltop stuff either) and potentially parts of Ireland in the following working week. Then by Friday onwards, hints of something much colder heading even further south. Looking back at recent weeks and the run of cold weekends, yes it's been mainly dry down south but with a few more frosts than in the recent past. During one or two of them, they didn't even produce an air frost through the whole of Autumn. We are in a completely different territory this time around. It will feel very mild this coming week, yes and the Atlantic will awaken from its slumber. However, once the troughing fills and heads slowly Northwestwards, the arctic plunge for next weekend (a recurring them) feels nailed on to my mind. D6 and beyond is where it's at, and snow will likely appear in more of the weather headlines as we head towards the end of November. Late November snowfall is not that rare, yet hill snow is probably the best I could wish for these days, given the volatility of our current climate. Over to the regular posters in here for their views and better access to the model outputs than I.

 

Looking forward to winter and all that it may bring.

 

Best Wishes

 

gottolovethisweather

 

 

Three days on and the weather developments are pretty much as expected; tomorrow looks both stormier and snowier than might have been imagined though. A genuinely wild day this Thursday with gales down Southern parts especially. Up the far North and potentially into parts of Northern Ireland, there could be some decent falls of snow. I must stop mentioning that word though; I'll start sounding like Nick Windy Miller from last night's long-range tv forecast. What of next week, I hear you say? Interchangeable spells of rain then wintry mixes are the most likely scenario with the driest weather further South. Before that, another cold weekend, in fact, the coldest since last winter, or so it seems, with temperatures struggling below 7c to 8c at best. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Strong signal from the 00z EPS 500mb mean/anomaly for ridging NE toward Svalbard and Norway by day 10, the extended EPS to day 15 maintaining ridging signal in this area, while deeply -ve anomaly is maintained over mainland Europe with hints of slight -ve anomaly over N Atlantic undercutting +ve anomaly over Greenland and Svalbard.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.e1523e2c250a426a3a3e359831ff818c.png

Last night's CPC update to its 6-10 day and 8-14 day 500mb heights/anomalies back up this idea too.

610day_03.thumb.gif.3a2cdc9b3f04e0cdf9e0ee09c0de0a73.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.ae23ee53a2b8f3a6eb46efe34efc7113.gif

So it will be interesting to see if GFS has a change of heart and goes with stronger ridging in the Atlantic rather than the toppling from the NW.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 0z although not as eye catching as the 12z is still below average after tomorrow right through to day 10 so not sure where the Beeb are getting mild with cold shots from?

Unless of course they place more stock in GFS

Saying that GEFS0z dont scream mild to me either- below average all the way through-

 

 

3

I suspect it's their idea that Atlantic fronts will be trying to make inroads after Sunday but bumping into cold already in-situ. Kind of what Knocker summarised in his post, but with the usual caveats, D6/D7 and beyond is only to be used as a guide IMHO.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Ignore the Beeb forecasts if that's what they say. Clearly written by Ian brown ..........

 

WTF :rofl:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Yes re the 500 mb anomalies Nick has posted above.

The 3 are more or less showing similar patterns and now have done for a couple of days. GFS is less keen, this morning, on the way shown on the other two. Sufficient agreement I think to suggest the cold outbreak will last at leasr 2-3 days possibly 4-5 days. But not a prolonged spell is how I read it using the anomaly charts. Yes they are mean charts so day to day variations can and will occur but their being 'mean'charts does give a good indication of the overall 500 mb pattern for the days shown. I would be a bit wary of suggesting anything longer, just yet, than what I suggest. Best to take things gently.

links as usual below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

6Z looks very similar to 0z so far- critical juncture coming u shortly- latest hot off the press from fergie- signal remains of protracted period of below normal temps with potential for NE winds later.Signals emerging of a change to milder weather by mid Dec :)

Sounds very much like EC 00z to me ..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Plenty for coldies to be positive about, colder weather on the way in a few days time, sooner in the north..some snow in the forecasts, even today on the Scottish mountains..Ecm 00z operational / ensemble mean still look very good..no prolonged mild mush in sight once it turns colder...and, it's still autumn!;):cold-emoji:chillax:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z looks very similar to 0z so far- critical juncture coming u shortly- latest hot off the press from fergie- signal remains of protracted period of below normal temps with potential for NE winds later.Signals emerging of a change to milder weather by mid Dec :)

Sounds very much like EC 00z to me ..

Id take that!  ptential snow opp for a month.   could be worse :)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Big change upstream on the 06z @96- much closer to the euros..

Yes jet being modeled differently off the eastern seaboard  at 96 steve :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

gfs-0-138.png?6

 

Nice displacement my son and not as quick to flatten this run

gfsnh-0-162.png?6

gfs-1-168.png?6

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain

For me this run is quite awful, the high doesn't get north at all, I am not seeing any positive signs

 

00z

gfsnh-0-156_iax9.png

06z

gfsnh-0-150_mxu1.png

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