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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

Exciting stuff from the main 12z models so far, the Gfs 12z for example shows snow on saturday for quite a large area and there are further wintry reloads through the run. I hope  this will be our first proper taste of wintry weather..the first of many during the next 4 months for all the netweather coldies!:D:cold:

12_117_preciptype.png

12_120_preciptype.png

12_123_ukthickness850.png

12_132_ukthickness850.png

12_204_ukthickness850.png

12_384_preciptype.png

12_384_ukthickness850.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It can't be bad, having all that colder whizzing into Europe, either...Maybe, in the long run (depending on how things eventually pan-out, synoptically) no good, but certainly not bad. A good place to start...if that makes any sense?:D

Ah, I think I can see how I confused someone...:oops:

What I should have clarified is that any winds of European origin won't deliver much if said continent hasn't properly cooled down yet...

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

You can tell winter is on the way when the GEM gets trotted out.

In all fairness it has been pretty close to the GFS in terms of verification recently. Perhaps time to make the big three the big four?

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jvenge Seasoned

jvenge

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

You can tell winter is on the way when the GEM gets trotted out.

It's not that bad, actually. I like their ensembles, anyway. Can be interesting to see where it leans when the GEFS go one way, EPS another.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, jvenge said:

It's not that bad, actually. I like their ensembles, anyway. Can be interesting to see where it leans when the GEFS go one way, EPS another.

Agree, it’s when we start rolling the Icon out we need to worry. 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Can’t post charts due the block on this site, but ECM thus far......great to t72

 

BFTP

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
59 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

In all fairness it has been pretty close to the GFS in terms of verification recently. Perhaps time to make the big three the big four?

Oh, I'm not casting aspersions on the GEMs credentials. Does get referred to more in winter though as far as I can see... 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

ECM still the most amplified at 120, actually better like for like than last nights ECM.

ECH1-144.GIFECH1-120.GIF?20-0

 

Edited by Mucka
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

EC 120

Defo more amplified but don't think we will see a fully blown Greeny/Iceland block- hoping for some re ampflifiaction at 144

Edited by northwestsnow
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
1 minute ago, knocker said:

The ecm has max temps in the 15-16C range for most of England on Weds

Whoa

peep.thumb.jpg.dc5873284bb06ab86624e79d52962563.jpg

Could be the last 16C before March 2018. Enjoy it!!

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm has max temps in the 15-16C range for most of England on Weds

Whoa

peep.thumb.jpg.dc5873284bb06ab86624e79d52962563.jpg

Don't worry your squirrel will be frozen by Saturday on latest ECM 12z:cold:

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Jonan92 Enthusiast

Jonan92

Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
Posted

Compared to yesterdays run the low gets ejected west sooner this time

Yesterday

ECH1-168_ywm6.GIF

Today

ECH1-144_giy3.GIF

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Looks pretty cold at noon on Saturday temps widely struggling to get above 3 or 4c highest temps will be in the far south-west where it might just about make 10c

252049aa-be05-4f4f-b3a2-b913503842be.thumb.png.673835280a774c67241a64ef64dcb53e.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

The ECM 168 is going to be a stonker coming up!!!:D

ooooh!!!

ECH1-168.GIF?20-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks similar to ukmo at 144 :)

EC looks great but we are lacking the uppers imho.

I think it's not too bad for a north-westerly in late November - let's see how it pans out.

Edited by mulzy
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Ec12z...very blocky run..

And very amplified indeed..

And as ec-can some time over-ampilfy..

It can also under cook cold/850hpa.

Also on the upside is the mass siberian lobe pv...

All looking v-promising in terms of cold!!!

ECH1-168.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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