Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

CC I suggest you screw your brain back on you aren't stupid. May posting anything of CFS result in a lifetime ban be implemented?  

Well I will if you can show me where I have based a forecast on the CFS?!

In fact I'm pretty sure I started the post with 'I'm not placing any stock in it'...

Confused.com!

Edited November 19, 2017 by CreweCold

[snowray]

Been out all day so missed the fun and games.

Tonights latest T120 Fax chart looks rather tasty

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Well I will if you can show me where I have based a forecast on the CFS?!

In fact I'm pretty sure I started the post with 'I'm not placing any stock in it'...

Confused.com!

You’ve just wrote all of December off crew? Whether you are right or not, who knows. Pretty bold claim at the moment I would suggest. Entitled to your opinion of course.

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well I will if you can show me where I have based a forecast on the CFS?!

In fact I'm pretty sure I started the post with 'I'm not placing any stock in it'...

Confused.com!

Well you gone and wrote off December, fair enough! I have noticed your posts have taken a sternly negative tone, I’m quite aware realism should take forefront. However, is it realism? What I do not like is you incessantly undermining valid ‘potential’ which some telecommunications may work in our favour. Say what you like about the EC it is one of the best tools we have. CFS I do not even go there..

Going forward I genuinely believe the writing is on the wall for December.

 

Edited November 19, 2017 by Daniel*

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

You’ve just wrote all of December off crew? Whether you are right or not, who knows. Pretty bold claim at the moment I would suggest. Entitled to your opinion of course.

'The writing is on the wall' is a lot different to writing the month of December off in its entirety. 

The writing is on the wall...but is it too early to be absolutely sure that the month is a 'write off'?...absolutely.

Come on people...

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Been out all day so missed the fun and games.

Tonights latest T120 Fax chart looks rather tasty

Great fax chart, troughs swinging south in an increasingly cold polar /arctic airflow..Yes please with a cherry on top!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Well you gone and wrote off December, fair enough! I have noticed your posts have taking a sternly negative tone, I’m quite aware realism should take forefront. However, is it realism? What I do not like is you incessantly undermining valid ‘potential’ which some telecommunications may work in our favour. Say what you like about the EC it is the best tool we have. 

Going forward I genuinely believe the writing is on the wall for December.

 

The issue I have, is that if I was on here giving the same reasoning but for a colder outlook, there wouldn't be any of this unnecessary overreaction.

A spade is a spade I'm afraid, no matter how much sugar coating people want. If I see upcoming cold in the modelling I'll be all over it IF  it is supported. I'm sorry but it goes against my whole ethos to say things for the sake of appeasement of cold lovers (of which I am one!)

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Great fax chart, troughs swinging south in an increasingly cold polar /arctic airflow..Yes please with a cherry on top!

T120, now according to my maths that would be D5.

Could be a very interesting period of model watching coming up in the next few days if that Fax chart is close to the mark.

[snowray]

18z short ensembles tell an interesting story.

Belfast and London:

[Ice Day]

18 minutes ago, snowray said:

Been out all day so missed the fun and games.

Tonights latest T120 Fax chart looks rather tasty

It is a great Fax chart. Certainly closer to tonight's ECM than the GFS. If day 5 pans out as shown then fun and games could follow in the 7-12 day period. Until tomorrow then.....

 

PS.  I think CC is being a bit harshly treated. He's entitled to his opinion even if it's at odds with those pining for a cold solution. Time will tell but he may well be on the money.

Edited November 19, 2017 by Ice Day

[Longtimelurker]

Met office Outlook states confidence is very low. Meaning they don't have a clue what will happen. I don't  place much credence in background signals it's the same every year with them. Predictions made by them concerning cold get pushed back and back and next you know winter is over and it didn't deliver and nothing is even mentioned of it again. An explanation of oh this happened to prevent it. Thenrinse repeat next winter. Met Office confidence is low for the next 30 days so the writing certainly isn't on the wall for December. We can't even see the wall. 

Edited November 19, 2017 by Longtimelurker

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, snowray said:

18z short ensembles tell an interesting story.

Belfast and London:

Indeed,

Perfectly plausible that we see repeated attempts at NW'ly incursions as we progress through the next few weeks (dependent on there being enough attenuation on the jet through upstream amplification).

These incursions will likely bring some snowfall to parts of the N&W, more especially over higher ground as per.

[bobbydog]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

'The writing is on the wall' is a lot different to writing the month of December off in its entirety. 

The writing is on the wall...but is it too early to be absolutely sure that the month is a 'write off'?...absolutely.

Come on people...

well the "writing" must be in hieroglyphics because no-one can read it yet....

[karlos1983]

Here’s an example if I may, of the “writing on the wall” 

I give you December 2016

[nick sussex]

Heres the US forecasters  fax chart for day 6: Next to that the ECM and the GFS:

US FC                                                            ECM                                                      GFS

 

You'll see the GFS is flatter with just one main low over the USA and Canada, that second low over the Great Lakes is important because as that runs east  and phases it causes an anti clockwise  motion on the main troughing further north which helps to keep the trough further west  and not ejecting lots of energy into the Atlantic.

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Here’s an example if I may, of the “writing on the wall” 

I give you December 2016

And for balance here is one from mid November 2016...closer to the point we are at now

Amazing how quickly the upper strat can descend isn't it...

 

[SLEETY]

17 minutes ago, snowray said:

Been out all day so missed the fun and games.

Tonights latest T120 Fax chart looks rather tasty

Wow that’s a great chart,long fetch Northerly and like Ecm ,maybe all 3 models will look the same for Friday in the morning.

[karlos1983]

Nice having N America view for ECM now @nick sussex

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Here’s an example if I may, of the “writing on the wall” 

I give you December 2016

Please don't show December 2015..still gives me nightmares of blowtorches

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

18z short ensembles tell an interesting story.

Belfast and London:

Both north and south but not as marked as further south a fairly sizeable clustering going for something cold and for it not to moderate so quickly, as compared to the GFS 18z OP. Encouraging GEFS best set I've seen in a while - a good day that is undeniable. I forsee plenty of snow for the high ground of northern Britain whether lower levels may see something that remains to be seen, but certainly possible even for lowland Southern England to see some flakes.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice having N America view for ECM now @nick sussex

Yes it’s new and good for a comparison . It’s a shame we don’t get that from the UKMO but that’s similar to the US fax chart going by the NH view .

Given the GFS flat bias and the UKMO supports the ECM upstream I’d not lose any sleep over tonight’s GFS.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Yes it’s new and good for a comparison . It’s a shame we don’t get that from the UKMO but that’s similar to the US fax chart going by the NH view .

Given the GFS flat bias and the UKMO supports the ECM upstream I’d not lose any sleep over tonight’s GFS.

I guess all we can do is see where we're at in the morning.

I'm not counting on any form of resolution however as when one thing is resolved, something else crops up!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Yes it’s new and good for a comparison . It’s a shame we don’t get that from the UKMO but that’s similar to the US fax chart going by the NH view .

Given the GFS flat bias and the UKMO supports the ECM upstream I’d not lose any sleep over tonight’s GFS.

To be honest I’m expecting all 3 models to have a few flips yet over the coming days. But all the time the gfs has no support from ukmo or ecm, I certainly won’t be losing any sleep.

[nick sussex]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

To be honest I’m expecting all 3 models to have a few flips yet over the coming days. But all the time the gfs has no support from ukmo or ecm, I certainly won’t be losing any sleep.

Even if you put aside the upstream differences downstream over the UK and Azores the GFS disagrees with the Euros at T96hrs and T120hrs hrs. It’s hard to back the GFS at T96 hrs against both models that verify ahead of it.

We’ll see in the morning but I would be shocked if the GFS has got the right evolution.

Edited November 19, 2017 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Even if you put aside the upstream differences downstream over the UK and Azores the GFS disagrees with the Euros at T96hrs and T120hrs hrs. It’s hard to back the GFS at T96 hrs against both models that verify ahead of it.

We’ll see in the morning but I would be shocked if the GFS has got the right evolution.

Guess we will know in the morning nick.

We really have been dreadfully snow starved during the last few winters,to the extent where im finding it hard to believe the more optimistic runs,even when its EC versus GFS at 96.

Hope to see plenty of cheers in the morning but fully prepared for disappointment.