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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Is that the cfs monthly or 9 monthly you refer to? Cheers in advance :)

Between 30-150 days ahead snapshot..it updates daily and currently it sounds very seasonal generally and progressively wintry further north..better than prolonged mild mush anyday!:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
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Posted (edited)

I stated the other day that there would be an opportunity for renewed Atlantic blocking from around the 27th and the models are now confirming this to some extent.

However, even though a signal for renewed blocking end of Nov has gathering support within the output, I am not convinced any blocking won't be quickly overrun by the Atlantic as yet.

We often see the models pick up on the potential and overplay when it is outside the reliable timeframe so at the moment a toppler might be the form horse but renewed interest in what may form from the 27th onward.

Edited by Mucka
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted (edited)

EC clusters at T144, T192, T240 show the op eventually becomes an outlier by D8, but some other clusters also entertain the idea of heights to the west and trough to the east. I'm giving the T144 as a link - I'm not always able to post them so if people would like to see the clusters for themselves, use the link below and adjust the dates/times as required :)

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2017/11/19/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017111900_144.png

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017111900_192.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017111900_240.

Edited by Man With Beard
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Well, either the coldies are suffering from model fatigue or are shocked by the upgrades on the 12z runs so far! 

Edited by blizzard81
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

Blizzard alert for Bergen Sunday.

The gfs is very amplified at the end of the week with the upper trough all the way down to north Africa. Thus we have a trailing front on which waves form and one intensifies and whips north east across the UK on Saturday bringing rain and strong winds and ends up in southern Norway

gfs_z500a_natl_21.thumb.png.8196aac0ce4f18ce70176f7973f4e5fe.pnggfs_uv500_natl_25.thumb.png.0d958d770c91c9388751eba9441dc741.png

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_21.thumb.png.32fbe9383eea8e692ba97806a31d9ab0.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_25.thumb.png.1b9cab054d31625ccbda8cc233688ab3.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.a5edf4f89c09df3c1e424921116fef52.png

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted
33 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Why?

because the GFS has a chalky look to it-

gfsnh-0-144-2.thumb.png.913e496cd51ce3f6f6e673c51608a353.png

and the UKMO has a cheesy look to it-

UN144-21.thumb.gif.363f848e667e8b007cd1c1ae7161b29e.gif

or.... the north atlantic profile is very different at 144hrs

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NorthernRab Accomplished

NorthernRab

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
Posted
38 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Why?

Indeed, both show riding to the west with northerly winds bring much colder temperatures south, particularly to Scotland, N. Ireland and the north of England. 

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well, either the coldies are suffering from model fatigue or are shocked by the upgrades on the 12z runs so far! 

Yes I'm shocked by the upgrades, having been roped into putting the xmas tree up already:cc_confused:

One is still wonders about the euroslug actually deflating and heading more SE to back up the eye candy being modelled. I suppose it will happen one day.

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NorthernRab Accomplished

NorthernRab

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
Posted
1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

 

or.... the north atlantic profile is very different at 144hrs

They look pretty similar to me. GFS a bit better going forward.

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted
14 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Yes I'm shocked by the upgrades, having been roped into putting the xmas tree up already:cc_confused:

One is still wonders about the euroslug actually deflating and heading more SE to back up the eye candy being modelled. I suppose it will happen one day.

Yes upgrades - but way too far ahead to get excited.

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pdiddy Enthusiast

pdiddy

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted

There is some inevitable model-fatigue ahead of the winter starting.  I think the important factor is not the detail, but the continuing signal for a disorganised PV and heights to the NW.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted (edited)

A weeks a long time in politics and looks like a few days is even longer in terms of these outputs !

Perhaps for a change the UK will clutch a victory from the jaws of defeat rather than the other way around which often seems to be the case .

Tonights GFS does get to some interest but we do see a difference of opinion earlier on two fronts, it doesn’t split the energy to the sw near the Azores and brings that ne into the UK and upstream it differs from the UKMO in terms of amplitude and phasing/timing.

Interestingly NOAA prefer amplified solutions for the east USA for next weekend and that’s positive news for those hoping for something colder in the UK.

It’s this upstream amplification that’s needed to help downstream. Tonight’s UKMO is offering support for this mornings ECM in terms of upstream timing and key features which is good although it’s a touch flatter than the ECM.

The key timeframe though comes after T144hrs with the ejection of that shortwave , the one just to the sw of Greenland .

That’s covered on page 152 , a bit more explanation as to what to look out for.  

So hopefully tonight’s ECM will keep the faith!

I should add the GFS isn’t so interested n the Arctic high and Greenland ridge combo but goes with just keeping positive heights over the latter.

As long as we get to cold I’m sure most members don’t mind how get there!

Edited by nick sussex
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

You know I keep the faith.   For me the very active solar burst we’ve had (with a bigger hit to come 23-29) has affected the jet stream and models picking up on it.  More tweaks yet for me.....and as Nick S alludes to, a week’s a long time.

lol watch the ECM flunk now

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted

Rain moving in now here, with some sleetiness mixed in. Could be some better chances from midweek onwards for the north! 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

Lovely late Nov / early Dec on the Gfs 12z..for coldies..even some snow!:cold-emoji:

12_252_preciptype.png

12_252_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_264_uk2mtmp.png

12_264_preciptype.png

12_264_mslp850.png

12_252_ukthickness.png

12_264_ukthickness.png

12_276_ukthickness.png

12_276_preciptype.png

12_276_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_384_uk2mtmp.png

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted

Now you've jinxed it.

 

Like you said, Victory from the jaws of defeat, its about time we did just that.

I know the peak district is a favoured spot but I'll believe its coming when at T+24 or even T+12 at the moment.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Still big differences between the ECM/UKMO and GFS at just T96hrs. Both to the sw and upstream , the GFS is much flatter over Canada .

I’d be astounded if the GFS wins this early battle against the Euros at that timeframe.

Moment of truth coming up at T168hrs on the ECM ! I can barely watch! Lol

Edited by nick sussex
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Ecm upto t120 and is similar to this mornings run. Cold air flooding into the north.

IMG_0029.PNG

Edited by That ECM
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

ECH1-144.GIF?19-0UN144-21.GIFgfsnh-0-144.png

UKMO currently the middle ground.

You would have to think ECM is over egging the pudding at this stage while GFS looks too flat?

 

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