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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ec mean/spreads tough to dissect re op support. Clusters hours away ! next weekend looks understated on the mean re progression of cold into Europe to our south but that could be a cluster showing a toppling ridge behind a faster moving trough. 

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech

i  know  its a  long way off  but after 240 hr  f1 saying  our winter coming   fingers  crosed :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

Good agreement in the models for next weekend especially after all of the chopping and changing over the past 48hrs or so.  Looks like that nasty low will drag down much colder weather from north. How far it comes south is anyones guess at this moment. 

I do like the reload on the GFS on the 0z run. I can imagine this one materialising. Interesting to see where it goes.  

Mild December on the cards if te GFS is to be believed. Perhaps just the model returning to its default setting?

Icant wait for the Netweather winter forecast. 

One other question... how many of you are professional meterologists?

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
3 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

 

Mild December on the cards if te GFS is to be believed. Perhaps just the model returning to its default setting?

 

GFS goes out to 5th December of which all the December part is in lala land anyway

How can you make that assumption based on that?

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
7 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

Mild December on the cards if te GFS is to be believed. Perhaps just the model returning to its default setting?
 

1

Early December looks around average or a touch below average looking at the ens

6456456.thumb.png.f4b7e9e4506e32f6dd8e3f25f9d00b9a.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

Good agreement in the models for next weekend especially after all of the chopping and changing over the past 48hrs or so.  Looks like that nasty low will drag down much colder weather from north. How far it comes south is anyones guess at this moment. 

I do like the reload on the GFS on the 0z run. I can imagine this one materialising. Interesting to see where it goes.  

Mild December on the cards if te GFS is to be believed. Perhaps just the model returning to its default setting?

Icant wait for the Netweather winter forecast. 

One other question... how many of you are professional meterologists?

??????????

depends what you mean by professional. If you had a YouTube channel which spewed out guff but earned enough off it to live then presumably you could class yourself as a professional meteorologist!!

john Holmes,  jo and fergie are my best guess. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

??????????

depends what you mean by professional. If you had a YouTube channel which spewed out guff but earned enough off it to live then presumably you could class yourself as a professional meteorologist!!

john Holmes,  jo and fergie are my best guess. 

Don't forget the netweather legend Michael Fish!:)

Models showing increasing signs of colder air in the mix  later in the week ahead onwards, especially further north with a much more seasonal flavour compared to the mild mush during the coming days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just Model Discusion please, ta.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The anomaly charts are not in real agreement with one another so expect fairly marked changes on the models until that is sorted.

Just my view but a changeable period looks the best option at the moment.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
54 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS goes out to 5th December of which all the December part is in lala land anyway

How can you make that assumption based on that?

Was based on the GFS and I did say if it was to be believed eith a question mark. 

hgt500-1000.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

6z gfs not as amplified in the atlantic past the 190hr mark.hopefully it doesn't blow up !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

Charts looking interesting again this morning going to give it a couple of days before i fully commit its been a roller coaster start to the season and it not even Winter yet ECM is:cold:but GFS just come out less cold again:wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
1 hour ago, snowbunting said:

Was based on the GFS and I did say if it was to be believed eith a question mark. 

hgt500-1000.png

GFS only goes out to 5th December, that still leaves 26 days of December left. There is no way you can judge a month by its first 5 days eg March 2013 is a prime example.

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Gfs 06z ensembles are a little colder towards the end. An interesting amendment on the latest meto update. Gone is the reference to it turning unsettled and milder as we go through December. Now replaced with cold, dry and frosty as we progress through December. The caveat being confidence is very low for that period. 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
5 hours ago, Sky Full said:

The charts for next Saturday from the main models show some diversity as you would expect at this distance:

UKMO    image.thumb.gif.b25434a411a352300b8b1f430d5f9729.gif   image.thumb.gif.dc948de21c22fac20abe4c23dffca5f1.gif

ECM       image.thumb.gif.0e5c0187fd1e2b07c27cfa24fced594a.gif   image.thumb.gif.c3d801baaa8c09266c53a207d0c88d1b.gif

GFS        image.thumb.png.8cec9fda661472964eac114c9105fd8e.png  image.thumb.png.12a77e79a7a274e57ad41601ab1b249f.png

GEM       image.thumb.png.5b8f01bdafe08119b2aa42a4c7f9f8f9.png  image.thumb.png.257e70ab778180813f0316de10faa382.png

The details will have to wait for later but I see a definite trend for the departing depression in the north east to draw colder air from the north west across the UK for the end of the month.  Whether this will bring snow to some parts is still to be decided but at least we are going in the right direction for the start of winter and there are plenty of routes to proper cold weather available in later charts.  Once we get that huge block established from the Azores to Greenland it's game on (it will happen, I can see it in the tea leaves....)!  :rolleyes:

Likewise, me too. Colder and snowier prospects involving a few days, namely Monday and Wednesday for parts of Scotland (not all hilltop stuff either) and potentially parts of Ireland in the following working week. Then by Friday onwards, hints of something much colder heading even further south. Looking back at recent weeks and the run of cold weekends, yes it's been mainly dry down south but with a few more frosts than in the recent past. During one or two of them, they didn't even produce an air frost through the whole of Autumn. We are in a completely different territory this time around. It will feel very mild this coming week, yes and the Atlantic will awaken from its slumber. However, once the troughing fills and heads slowly Northwestwards, the arctic plunge for next weekend (a recurring them) feels nailed on to my mind. D6 and beyond is where it's at, and snow will likely appear in more of the weather headlines as we head towards the end of November. Late November snowfall is not that rare, yet hill snow is probably the best I could wish for these days, given the volatility of our current climate. Over to the regular posters in here for their views and better access to the model outputs than I.

 

Looking forward to winter and all that it may bring.

 

Best Wishes

 

gottolovethisweather

 

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs 06z ensembles are a little colder towards the end. An interesting amendment on the latest meto update. Gone is the reference to it turning unsettled and milder as we go through December. Now replaced with cold, dry and frosty as we progress through December. The caveat being confidence is very low for that period. 

No mention of snow in December but reading between the lines there is scope for wintry ppn at times as the airmasses change and during the bright and cold spells..should be some decent frosts too.:):cold-emoji:could be a lot worse!:D

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Is it possible for some of you to actually post in the correct thread please?

model discussion NOT bits out of Met forecasts.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Hard to know where we are going at the moment.Obviously the EC 00z is my hope,although it seems Exeter are not giving it much mileage looking at next weekends forecast .

Hoping for upgrades :)

Edit GEFS 6z seem to be trending colder longer term, id hazard that would be PM incursions.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just had a look at what the extended CFS2 model is indicating and there appears to be plenty of cold weather with frosts and increasing amounts of snow the further north you are.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Just had a look at what the extended CFS2 model is indicating and there appears to be plenty of cold weather with frosts and increasing amounts of snow the further north you are.:)

Is that the cfs monthly or 9 monthly you refer to? Cheers in advance :)

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