Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[SMU]

Morning All

possibly firming up on a small snow event risk now for the borders - could be a tad either side! ( maybe even NI )

 

[Dennis]

one to watch

[The PIT]

Errr double figures at midnight it's certainly mild at t144.  Otherwise good agreement between the three models. Milder in the short term then back to swapping and changing.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

possibly firming up on a small snow event risk now for the borders - could be a tad either side! ( maybe even NI )

 

I would imagine the scottish ski industry are liking the look of the morning runs.

Now to map a way of nuking the Euro high

[chris55]

Ukmo 144 looking decent with strong north westerly developing and potentially colder air thereafter 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, chris55 said:

Ukmo 144 looking decent with strong north westerly developing and potentially colder air thereafter 

Pick of the bunch at 144 for me chris

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes into Wk2 were back to a N/W Pm flow, Drifting Northerly at times as systems pass. So temps avg or just below especially for the North with snow for Scotland and over high ground. What you would expect for the time of year.. As others have said good news for Northern Hills/Mountains. And not a bad set-up for the start of Winter!

Edited November 18, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

Yes into Wk2 were back to a N/W Pm flow, Drifting Northerly at times as systems pass. So temps avg or just below especially for the North with snow for Scotland and high ground. What you would expect for the time of year..

If we could just get the jet to drag that little bit further south then it would be splendid- could do with that euro high getting a life - perhaps a move to mongolia would be welcomed.

[Frosty.]

Certainly a lot more encouragement for coldies, especially further north on this morning's Gfs 00z compared to yesterday's vile nationwide two week blowtorch!

Edited November 18, 2017 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Certainly a lot more encouragement for coldies on this morning's Gfs 00z compared to yesterday's vile two week blowtorch!

Agreed !

Still a bit concerned about the heights across Europe if i were to be honest but hopefully the roll of the dice will benefit the long suffering UK coldies for once- imho this mornings runs are a step in the right direction after yesterdays faulty outputs.

 

[Sky Full]

The other day it was the 23rd November which looked stormy, but now the 24th looks worse...   

GFS, ECM, UKMO and GEM all have a deep depression somewhere near or right over the UK on the 24th:

   

   

Whatever this might mean in terms of snow for some upland areas in Scotland this is one occasion when I am hoping for downgrades in the next few days.  The GFS prediction in particular could bring damaging winds to many parts and if this is accompanied by heavy rain it will not be pleasant for those in the firing line.  There is the possibility of a strong northerly airflow in the aftermath though, and I would encourage the models to work a bit harder on bringing this about if they want us to stay friends.... 

[snowbunting]

Good morning!

Well GFS does it again... picks up a cold signal  10days out... dramatically drops it for warmish atlantic onslaught... and then brings the colder air back in again in a slightly more reliable timeframe. It is a cool NWly wintry showers for the western isles. BTW we have already had wet snow falling at sea level on thursday morning in Stornoway. So the atlantic isnt that mild!!!

[stewfox]

43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed !

Still a bit concerned about the heights across Europe if i were to be honest but hopefully the roll of the dice will benefit the long suffering UK coldies for once- imho this mornings runs are a step in the right direction after yesterdays faulty outputs.

 

Must be a solution out there, working on it supporting chart attached

[Iceaxecrampon]

Just had a quick blast through the 00z

Plenty of potential at altitude for next weekend from  NW PM - Scottish Highlands certainly will do well with decent totals accumulating.

A much change from the blowtorch mild mush of Thursdays output.

Eyes down.

[Iceaxecrampon]

49 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

The other day it was the 23rd November which looked stormy, but now the 24th looks worse...   

GFS, ECM, UKMO and GEM all have a deep depression somewhere near or right over the UK on the 24th:

   

   

Whatever this might mean in terms of snow for some upland areas in Scotland this is one occasion when I am hoping for downgrades in the next few days.  The GFS prediction in particular could bring damaging winds to many parts and if this is accompanied by heavy rain it will not be pleasant for those in the firing line.  There is the possibility of a strong northerly airflow in the aftermath though, and I would encourage the models to work a bit harder on bringing this about if they want us to stay friends.... 

Yes - didnt realise the potential of the probable windspeed and gusts up there - interesting to say the least - real Winter.

 

[Summer Sun]

The Ski slopes in Scotland should see an early season boost next week as colder air hangs over northern Scotland for England and Wales the daffs will be tricked into thinking spring is on the way with some very mild temps both by day and night

By Friday GFS has the colder air moving further south but the mean and Op split at this point so it could go either way from Friday onwards

Edited November 18, 2017 by Summer Sun

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hot period sun wise coming 23-29 Nov.  I think stormy is on the cards but mild or cold.  06z throwing up some more interest around that period.  More tweaks and twists to come I think.  Seems N I and Scotland is going to see winter......who else?  

 

BFTP

Edited November 18, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[swfc]

Given the blocking and cold spell hoped for has wained now the gfs 6Z from about the 190hr mark does show from the nhp a more south east movement of areas of low pressure. Looks a cool -cold flow setting up imo

Interest also in the east based pv 

Good outlook heading towards winter! !!

[Summer Sun]

GFS extends the milder air into Friday on the 06z before the colder air sweeps south during the weekend

[Geordiesnow]

GFS is still perhaps bring a bit over progressive with how quickly it brings the milder in across the whole of the UK with the UKMO backing a bit more towards last nights ECM. Either way, any snow will likely to be transient at lower levels whichever output we look at though.

More interestingly is the potential for a deep low developing mid next week, lots of details still need to be firmed up on but the potential is there, hopefully on my point of view it comes off and hopefully it ends up with polar maritime North Westerlies following on behind, at least it means the weather will be interesting.

[ANYWEATHER]

Morning all. Looks like we will start to crank up the weather machine following a rather quiet start to next week. Interesting if you like stormy and cold conditions.

Edited November 18, 2017 by phil nw.

[phil nw.]

Some differences in the models wrt the mild v cold placements -that area of cold air further north doesn't look like giving way very much over the coming days.Certainly anywhere north of around 60 degrees is in that arctic air.

Some fascinating charts from the UKMO this morning.

T84hrs fax                                                           T96hrs 850's

 

I noticed last night's fax for the same time had the cold further north

The fronts and milder air were moving north now latest fax has the cold still easing south-the whole low complex modelled a bit further south.

Subtle differences in all the models with chances of snowfall anywhere from the highlands in the far north to maybe as far south as the Scottish borders depending where the battle zone between the air masses ends up.

Certainly an interesting week coming up as these "battle zones" over the UK are not too common with wide differences in temperatures north to south.

Edited November 18, 2017 by phil nw.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Good weather for the Daffs next week.

Then this......

Fantasy? - but banked.

Good 06z output for coldies keeping the theme going  - not posted as too far but look at +252 at your peril  

 

Edited November 18, 2017 by Iceaxecrampon

[Frosty.]

A lot more interest this morning compared to the prolonged mild mush fest the models showed yesterday, more of a battle seems likely with a chance of cold incursions increased on this morning's runs..good to see cold air hanging on in the far north during the next few days..excitement grows as we rapidly approach the season most of us love the most..WINTER!

[bluearmy]

Looks like a reversion to standard autumn fare once the trough gets through properly with transient lee northerlies following behind systems.  Waiting for the next pattern change - you would expect the upcoming NH amplification to lead to one coming into view within a couple weeks