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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
57 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

Maybe best to just move on now,let's keep on topic.Edit.Mucka-i have pm;d you.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
18 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Tasty winds cold winds at t186 on 18z tonight. Trough moving eastwards a bit more letting some colder air move down

Yep back to quite cool / cold weather next weekend on 18z . That's what BBC week ahead forecast hinted at . 

IMG_0646.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If there's one chart that sums up my forecast for this winter, then its this one.

gfsnh-0-336_qbj3.png

Big shout considering we’ve not seen the PV anything like that organised so far Feb..,.,and it ain’t even winter yet. 

Heights to the south can’t be there all winter.......can they? ....... surely.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 18z shows some remarkably mild weather across southern UK next week with temps into the low to mid teens celsius, possibly 16/17c in the southeast at times..very disappointing for coldies but it's still autumn for another two weeks which should soften the blow...Plenty of time for cold and snow during the next 3 /4 months!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If there's one chart that sums up my forecast for this winter, then its this one.

gfsnh-0-336_qbj3.png

Really Feb ??? You can see it being that bad ? I really hope your wrong and I'm pretty hopefull we are gonna see a better winter than the last few ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Big shout considering we’ve not seen the PV anything like that organised so far Feb..,.,and it ain’t even winter yet. 

Heights to the south can’t be there all winter.......can they? ....... surely.

 

still not decided yet. big differences in the ECM and GFS at day 10

ECH1-240-1.thumb.gif.34541f74cfc6042cae1947ec5fb501f9.gif

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.50753d6d9641495232668d68e8ed245f.png

and...

dont-call-me-shirley.thumb.jpg.5ff41f41ec751ca3ed45dd57b5720f9f.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The latest UKMO charts show the battle ground between the polar and sub-tropical air masses across the UK at T72hrs.

fax72s.gif?1UW72-7.GIF?17-17

A big temperature range north to south.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
20 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Big shout considering we’ve not seen the PV anything like that organised so far Feb..,.,and it ain’t even winter yet. 

Heights to the south can’t be there all winter.......can they? ....... surely.

 

A little bit tongue in cheek but half serious, I firmly believe we will be requiring an SSW to enable any blocking and if it comes it will be much further into the season than early to mid Dec, I wholeheartedly disagree with those who suggest that the zonal winds in the stratosphere will not downwell

In the 3 years before this there were at least some minor warmings present in Nov, no sign of any here.

gfsnh-10-234_acg5.png

 

The stronger zonal winds retreating back up the strat in next few days will only be temporary before they downwell, the wave activity is the only thing that will stop that happening, these wave's are nowhere near potent enough to stop this happening and are weakening again by the end of the run.

ecmwfzm_ha2_f72.gif

Ive seen w2 heights of 1200 - 1400m and w1 in the high 2000's before.

 

Also I don't buy into this weak Vortex in November = better for later anymore, I still think the OPI definitely had some merit and was proven by some analoging by Steve Murr,  we were just unlucky IMO that year. BUT - a lot of years where a weak vortex and a good Snow advance in October, also had a strong vortex in November but still delivered potent cold snaps in winter, in fact a lot of good winters had very zonal Novembers preceding them, 2010 and 2009 I believe had severe flooding and mild in November to name but 2, This could be that the sooner the vortex gets going properly, the better chance we have of it running out of steam in the middle of winter and thus not having to rely on early final strat warmings to produce a few flakes at the end, I admit this is a new theory I have developed recently and wont get the chance to put it to the test as this period of blocking has put pay to that but I have seen some papers recently on weak vortex's in Nov not staying weak for very long in the last few years, I think it was in the strat thread but I cant remember. There are some things in our favour and if we can keep the La Nina strength to a minimum and enjoy some spells of spotless solar activity, that's not a bad starting position in order to achieve an SSW later on but December - forget it, its a write off.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
37 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Really Feb ??? You can see it being that bad ? I really hope your wrong and I'm pretty hopefull we are gonna see a better winter than the last few ? 

The ECM ensembles have trended even worse, the London graph is just about as bad as it gets after being quite promising recently.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm not writing off the first month of winter..details next week are still up in the air!..:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

A few ens going cold in the mid term . ;) IMG_0647.thumb.PNG.1a83fb7ff858e7f9e14dafc6c65f8308.PNGIMG_0648.thumb.PNG.dca174a7ed5bd23fbca9dd592cafd414.PNG

Feb you can't be seriously writing off December for any cold spells , it's the middle off November ?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

A few ens going cold in the mid term . ;) IMG_0647.thumb.PNG.1a83fb7ff858e7f9e14dafc6c65f8308.PNGIMG_0648.thumb.PNG.dca174a7ed5bd23fbca9dd592cafd414.PNG

Feb you can't be seriously writing off December for any cold spells , it's the middle off November ?? 

2/20 GEFS go cold in short term and the same number out of 50 eps members, I'm not writing off cold zonality (you cant) or some of @bluearmy 's 'runners around the base of a trough' scenario but I'm writing off blocking, that's assuming the return to zonality occurs but I really think it will.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM ensembles have trended even worse, the London graph is just about as bad as it gets after being quite promising recently.

The amount off times I have heard people over the last few years saying that the back groud signals etc etc are favourable for blocking and it's looking good It never comes off . So how you can say December is a write off when it's November the 17th baffles me ? Can't tell the weather 1 week ahead let alone 4,5 and 6 weeks ahead ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

What seems to not been mentioned in here too much is the potential for some localised flooding to occur with such a mild SW'ly flow and shall low pressure systems not going too far in a hurry, especially on any western slopes in the north.

The ECM does offer a tease the milder air may be a bit slower than other runs to sweep right across the country, see if the morning run shows anything similar but the main emphasis for next week will be just how remarkably mild it could get for the first part of next week for some.

The other kick in the seat for coldies during this period of model watching was when the outputs did initially show the potential for something colder via a Greenland high, the uppers did not look cold enough for snow with the exception of those couple of GFS runs so its a real kick in the teeth how all this plays out.

My next point of interest will of course be the potential for a deep depression, unlike most on here it seems, I do relish a good old Autumn/winter deep low and the potential is there although details are impossible to nail at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ooz output..chucking up some decent evolutions!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
23 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I just looked at gfs output and it doesn’t look good to me at all!

It offers polar maritime incursions so thats a plus as far as im concerned :)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

tale of two airmasses today slowly becoming one overnight. The deep low west of Norway will slide SE to the southern Baltic states during the day keeping Scotland and the NE in a showery. cool, north westerly, some of the showers quite wintry. These will tend to die out and the wind to abate overnight.. Elswhere the high pressure centred to the SW and the warmer air (relatively speaking) is the more influential thus lighter winds but more moisture and cloud with possibly some light drizzle in places in the south. By tomorrow morning all will be in this airmass.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.36bcf1def67812951b2b40f166284b9e.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.8a53ae66da33b7f8e650f8603e2b2f6e.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.08be69d7b0613b60150161cef3a955ec.gif

So on to this mornings gfs

Tomorrow a front associated with a depression west of Scotland will track NE during the day and by 00 Monday witl be impacting N. Ireland and Scotland bringing rain and snow on the higher ground of the latter. Over the next 24 hours the low will track south east across Scotland to be northern germany by 00 Tuesday.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_9.thumb.png.d1f559ee7a2877e4ab8ab09c3167c4fe.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_13.thumb.png.f20c89ede3d2169849127f16e1fe5ee4.png

But as mentioned last night this is where it starts getting a little complicated. The major trough is out west in the Atlantic stretching a fair way south but another trough has tracked south around Greenland bringing colder air with it and by 12 Tuesday is starting to phase with the Atlantic trough. On the surface a frontal low has formed off the main trough and has tracked north east to be over Scotland 991mb at the same time. This morning the gfs is taking this low far enough north to probably rule out any significant snow on the higher ground in Scotland but this is very dependent on the precise track

gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.efe812378cc95cd895132197df846569.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.a8c61f5cc87310f680100ae0e7a1ca7d.pnggfs_t850a_natl_15.thumb.png.222fe1831dc492b83d971066ff544b14.png

The low continues to move NE to be southern Norway 984mb by midday Wednesday leaving behind an upper trough set up to the west and north of the UK which to say is complex doesn't do it justice. But keep an eye to the south west because this is where the major low develops with some explosive cyclogenesis which tracks north east to be 963mb over Wales by 12 Thursday bringing heavy rain and gales, severe in exposed areas and possibly some significant snow in the Scottish mountains. .

gfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.9adcb66a4a89dd198adadc61dada981b.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.c99fbac649a1646a792486d8253f27e0.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_23.thumb.png.cdd6a325f2665d6bb42ae56d21705104.png

By 12 Friday the low is west of southern Norway initiating blizzard conditions in Scotland with severe north westerly gales Needless to say this scenario is not good news from the wind and rain perspective and although it is obviously subject to adjustment from future outputs and other models a careful eye needs to be kept on developments. I have included a couple of 500mb charts which give some idea of the energy flows.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.13524363dca8f6024dd8a45f0017931f.pnggfs_uv500_natl_21.thumb.png.50417ac455f2737f7b532f34453afd4b.pnggfs_uv500_natl_27.thumb.png.76a36b64af86b6a8a497780212e73bc2.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

The big 3 at t144. Similar but certainly not the same. You would not describe any of them as mild! It highlights to me that depending on the strength of the high and the position of the high the differences in what would we experience and what might follow. Not a done deal for me nor the met as they talk of low confidence and you can see why. Still much interest.

IMG_0023.PNG

IMG_0024.PNG

IMG_0025.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm has the Tuesday front approaching Scotland more from the south under a tongue of cold air so snow briefly more likely than the gfs over the high ground on the leading edge. Thereafter, without the gfs doomsday scenario, suffice it to say very unsettled with plenty of rain and severe gales likely at times.

ecm_t850_anom_natl_5.thumb.png.1c1e97123afdb93dad4c356240a777a3.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.b3f24eee29da95ba39d3604b8c1687a4.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The big 3 at t144. Similar but certainly not the same. You would not describe any of them as mild! It highlights to me that depending on the strength of the high and the position of the high the differences in what would we experience and what might follow. Not a done deal for me nor the met as they talk of low confidence and you can see why. Still much interest.

IMG_0023.PNG

IMG_0024.PNG

IMG_0025.PNG

Either way, good to see UKMO starting to suggest slightly stronger HP over Greenland.

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