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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS 12Z looks very wet for scotland and eventually all of us as we head through next week.

We have a genuine Greenland high but we also have a huge Euro high- 

UKMO pretty much the same at 144- not pretty at all. :(

loads of blocking across the pole,ruined by a big fat euro slug.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ukmo 12z shuts the window upstream that it showed on its previous run. All modelling now phases the neg NAO unfavourably in both the short and mid term. 

The euro heights are generally a consequence of the upstream systems meandering across the Atlantic and phasing with the cold trough headed sw around the neg AO. If the jet split was favourable then a mid atlantic ridge would likely retrogress what becomes the euro heights and the CAA would be more favourable for our locale. 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

That setup is so cruel, Iceland the place to be (if you like snow that is). :cold:

gfsnh-0-150.thumb.png.bd1f067f948891c2a80e6085139abed7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo 12z shuts the window upstream that it showed on its previous run. All modelling now phases the neg NAO unfavourably in both the short and mid term. 

Indeed Blue - just look at all that warm air being pumped into Europe from southern latitudes :( All courtesy of the euro high, a truely vile setup, think we need to accept there is going to be a very unwelcome pattern setting up shop.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed Blue - just look at all that warm air being pumped into Europe from southern latitudes :( All courtesy of the euro high, a truely vile setup, think we need to accept there is going to be a very unwelcome pattern setting up shop.

not easily shifted either... historically 

*must stress not writing any winter months off* just saying

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, karlos1983 said:

not easily shifted either... historically 

Nope, can be a very very durable pattern.The only good news is its coming in mid to late November,our hope is it doesnt hang around for weeks and weeks.But we are going to be searching into FI again for crumbs of hope.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Actually I find the 12z GFS to be an improvement from earlier run and it is closer to the 0z ECM which was not too terrible. 

It has the low pressure further south with the cold air touching Scotland at times and the Euro highs getting pushed a bit further east with time.

Not great but it could be worse.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed Blue - just look at all that warm air being pumped into Europe from southern latitudes :( All courtesy of the euro high, a truely vile setup, think we need to accept there is going to be a very unwelcome pattern setting up shop.

 

19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

not easily shifted either... historically 

*must stress not writing any winter months off* just saying

 

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nope, can be a very very durable pattern.The only good news is its coming in mid to late November,our hope is it doesnt hang around for weeks and weeks.But we are going to be searching into FI again for crumbs of hope.

 

 

14 minutes ago, karyo said:

Actually I find the 12z GFS to be an improvement from earlier run and it is closer to the 0z ECM which was not too terrible. 

It has the low pressure further south with the cold air touching Scotland at times and the Euro highs getting pushed a bit further east with time.

Not great but it could be worse.

 

13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-192.png?12

While people talk of new South Wesley pattern setting up for a long time the actual output shows a sinking jet with low heights edging into western Europe 

Will it? Won't it? Is it? Isn't it? frigid NE'rly, blowtorch SW'rly, Mild? Cold? Rain? Dry? Snow?....trying to work these things out from the above posts have just made my brain implode :fool: :crazy:

banter aside, it just goes to show a) how model runs change, and b) individuals interpretations of the models can be like chalk and cheese..........Could I do any better?.....Nah, I wouldn't have a clue :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

 

 

 

 

Will it? Won't it? Is it? Isn't it? frigid NE'rly, blowtorch SW'rly, Mild? Cold? Rain? Dry? Snow?....trying to work these things out from the above posts have just made my brain implode :fool: :crazy:

banter aside, it just goes to show a) how model runs change, and b) individuals interpretations of the models can be like chalk and cheese..........Could I do any better?.....Nah, I wouldn't have a clue :laugh:

Well i guess its all about opinions / interpretations AJ :)

As Frosty ground says , the jet is heading into Europe so its not all doom and gloom. Personally i dont like gfs12z as it looks very unsettled, and i dont like rain but maybe there will be opportunities down the line of we can get some amplification in the Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
33 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

That setup is so cruel, Iceland the place to be (if you like snow that is). :cold:

gfsnh-0-150.thumb.png.bd1f067f948891c2a80e6085139abed7.png

It's the place to be even if you don't 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Uncle Barty ruin the party in one word extremely unsettled very windy mild flooding cold snaps at times in the far north.

The Atlantic must be the most active for some time I reckon.

Not ideal west based NAO awful model runs now.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Uncle Barty ruin the party in one word extremely unsettled very windy mild flooding cold snaps at times in the far north.

The Atlantic must be the most active for some time I reckon.

Not ideal west based NAO awful model runs now.

 

So what your saying is...

If we have other hobbies, now might be a good time to revisit them? 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The last 3-4 winters have been utterly ruined by the European High and it's right back at it again.

Instead of cold and snow to end the month, it looks like we could see a few pretty nasty low pressure systems. Iceland gets the Beast from the East, we get cold rain and wind. Yay for UK weather!

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Keep reading it's the Euro heights ruining any chance of cold but it's not really, its all down to the west based NAO as the whole weather set up is further North and West basically because the high bear Greenland is further North and West, it's really is just unfortunate as if it was a TRUE Greenland high then the whole set up will be further South and East and any high pressure over Europe would soon clear.

As it's been said it's almost if not impossible to get a cold pattern from a west based no.  The question is how quickly will the mild air come in and if there is any delays in this then what impacts will that habe down the line

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The last 3-4 winters have been utterly ruined by the European High and it's right back at it again.

Instead of cold and snow to end the month, it looks like we could see a few pretty nasty low pressure systems. Iceland gets the Beast from the East, we get cold rain and wind. Yay for UK weather!

I actually think the GFS run is a step in the right direction. Jet heading south, the dreaded Azores High suppressed quite a way south and south west at times, cold at certain times too and at least we will have some actual weather. If it verifies of course

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Typically just as the GFS improves the UKMO goes the other way.

Having seen the GFS first I was expecting better from the UKMO which manages to phase everything in the most unfavourable way. With the GFS theres still a chance the far north could remain in the colder air, the UKMO no chance as it blows up the low.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Putting aside emotive responses to missing out on a cold spell and the possibility of a zonal flow being established, things may well look worse than they actually are.

The darkest hour comes before dawn and all that, right? (Though I accept we have had Winters that have been the equivalent of perpetual night in that poetic context)

We are seeing the break down of Atlantic blocking in the 5-7 day range but Northern blocking should persist in some form for some time after that.

Granted it won't be in a position to deliver cold for us but it may be enough to force low pressure SE into the continent once more slowing any zonal flow in last week of November.

This is why I believe there is still a small window of opportunity for blocking to begin to reestablish itself the last few days of November - probably in the form of an Atlantic ridge once more should it happen.

Keep an eye on the output from the 27th for any signs of the jet digging South and height rises in the Atlantic.

We may get a full blown zonal spell that goes on through the first half of Dec as the vortex organises and jet ramps up but I don't see why we should rush to that conclusion at the moment.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some posts are more suited to the Model moan/banter thread, Please use that thread for such posts or they may start to go missing. Please continue, Thanks.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

We're trying to let the conversation flow as much as possible in here, but a few have gone beyond a bit off topic and into a place where there isn't even a tenuous link to the models! So a few posts have gone, sorry. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

npsh500.png  npsh500.pngnpsh500.png npsh500.png

 

When you consider just how much GFS loves to consolidate the polar vortex around Greenland, it's encouraging to see it failing to maintain such a setup even in the further reaches of lower-res ('FI') when climatological bias usually shows its hand the most.

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