Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

To an idiot like me, it suggests:

December - mild-ish and wet

January - mild-ish and wet

February mild-ish and drier.

Doing yourself an injustice mate.. Fairly accurate I'd say 

The good news is we saw how fickle these EC Long range models were last year.. sods law they will be bang on this winter 

Edited November 17, 2017 by karlos1983

[Chris.R]

So where did this rain come from that I’m currently having. It was supposed to be dry today. If we can’t even get t0 correct then how can wee be so  concerned with things t120 and above?

Edited November 17, 2017 by Chris.R

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Sorry, I can't see it in those graphs.

What are you struggling to see? The increased scatter from around the 23rd to 27th 

Or the Cool down showin for the final third of the graph in comparison to the 0z run?

Edited November 17, 2017 by frosty ground

[frosty ground]

15 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

To an idiot like me, it suggests:

December - mild-ish and wet

January - mild-ish and wet

February mild-ish and drier.

Looks bang on average to me..... Temp anomaly between -0.5 and +0.5 (F)

[bluearmy]

Am I the only person who finds those ec seasonal charts quite interesting for coldies, especially for Dec and jan ??

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Am I the only person who finds those ec seasonal charts quite interesting for coldies, especially for Dec and jan ??

are you referring to The above average heights to our NE BA? Give us a clue...

I like that, but it doesn't tie up with the Temp Anomaly  so left me a bit confused.

Edited November 17, 2017 by karlos1983

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

What are you struggling to see? The increased scatter from around the 23rd to 27th 

Or the Cool down showin for the final third of the graph in comparison to the 0z run?

Please see my PM, this is not the thread for such discussions.

[Frosty.]

Reading between the lines, it doesn't sound like a two week blowtorch coming up as the Gfs shows so far today. I like the sound of colder air and wintry showers spreading south at times..fingers and toes crossed!

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

are you referring to The above average heights to our NE BA? Give us a clue...

I like that, but it doesn't tie up with the Temp Anomaly  so left me a bit confused.

its a mean chart for a month karlos. with a mean continental flow it shouldn't be mild and systems will run nw/se against any blocking. we aren't ever going to see the same pattern for four weeks so if this is the mean then its not a bad start. anyway, given how the model is a bust for month 1, are going to take any notice ????

[Snowy Hibbo]

Sorry this is super late.....

Latest EC Monthly runs 

Week 1 21-27 Nov

Greenland and Mediterranean ridging, Atlantic troughing extending to Northern UK and Scandi troughing as well, extending to Euro Russia.

Week 2 28 Nov- 4 Dec

Scandi troughing including over Scotland, Mediterranean ridging, causing zonal jetstream setup.

Week 3 5-11 Dec

Troughing over Norway, Atlantic Ridge present.

Week 4 12-18 Nov

Atlantic Ridge present.

 

sorry for lack of detail, very early morning in Aus....

[Snowy Hibbo]

57 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Dec-Jan-Feb ECMWF Seasonal

This site is getting bookmarked

Nothing overly inspiring, but at least no blowtorch showing in terms of temps. Is the way i would read it...

https://weather.us/monthly-charts/euro/europe/temperature-diff-f/20171201-0000z.html 

While you are on the subject, here is the main official public source of EC Seasonal data, along with C3S MME data.

http://climate.copernicus.eu/s/charts/c3s_seasonal/

Quite late from the weather.us guys, I got that data ages ago. If you want the early data, just give me a buzz

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

While you are on the subject, here is the main official public source of EC Seasonal data, along with C3S MME data.

http://climate.copernicus.eu/s/charts/c3s_seasonal/

Quite late from the weather.us guys, I got that data ages ago. If you want the early data, just give me a buzz

Cheers for the link and comment, top banana !

[bluearmy]

Can you extract each month though on that site ??

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Can you extract each month though on that site ??

Not that I can see. only historical Data monthly.

[nick sussex]

Those ECM precip forecasts wouldn't correlate with mild conditions in December and January.

Higher than average rainfall towards the Med suggests the limpet Azores high won't be taking up residence to the sw with lower heights there suggested by the pressure anomalies.

So not sure what the ECM is playing at because theres a non-correlation between the temp anomalies and the rainfall ones, you can't have both being correct.

The pressure anomalies suggest higher pressure to the ne and lower pressure to the sw. It looks like a battle ground scenario with that configuration, of course these are averaged over the whole month. They also show the storm track not in its usual position with the normal strong Azores high and Icelandic low scenario.

Edited November 17, 2017 by nick sussex

[joggs]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Am I the only person who finds those ec seasonal charts quite interesting for coldies, especially for Dec and jan ??

I'm thinking battle ground scenarios lol.

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Those ECM precip forecasts wouldn't correlate with mild conditions in December and January.

Higher than average rainfall towards the Med suggests the limpet Azores high won't be taking up residence to the sw with lower heights there suggested by the pressure anomalies.

So not sure what the ECM is playing at because theres a non-correlation between the temp anomalies and the rainfall ones, you can't have both being correct.

It’s a whole month nick - there can be warm and cool phases through the month leading to average. I don’t see an issue - looks like a southerly storm track on a nw/se axis which is why I’m intrigued 

[karlos1983]

I'm thinking it concludes yet more uncertainty  It's a good job that's right up our street on here 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s a whole month nick - there can be warm and cool phases through the month leading to average. I don’t see an issue - looks like a southerly storm track on a nw/se axis which is why I’m intrigued

Yes of course , the point I'm making is that they clearly don't see the limpet Azores high setting up shop for extended periods to the sw. Overall I'm quite happy with those ECM charts, could be a great early season for the ski resorts here.

[karyo]

21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Those ECM precip forecasts wouldn't correlate with mild conditions in December and January.

Higher than average rainfall towards the Med suggests the limpet Azores high won't be taking up residence to the sw with lower heights there suggested by the pressure anomalies.

So not sure what the ECM is playing at because theres a non-correlation between the temp anomalies and the rainfall ones, you can't have both being correct.

The pressure anomalies suggest higher pressure to the ne and lower pressure to the sw. It looks like a battle ground scenario with that configuration, of course these are averaged over the whole month. They also show the storm track not in its usual position with the normal strong Azores high and Icelandic low scenario.

Agreed! You can also see the lack of correlation in the February chart which should be super-mild for us but the temperature anomaly is not much different to the previous two months.

[swebby]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s a whole month nick - there can be warm and cool phases through the month leading to average. I don’t see an issue - looks like a southerly storm track on a nw/se axis which is why I’m intrigued 

I was wondering if they (mslp anom) indicated a more southerly tracking jet?  The lack of dark blue in the area NW of iceland for Dec/Jan must also be a positive or at least not indicative of a powered up vortex over greenland?  Flip side is i would assume the Feb mslp chart = mild and wet?

 

Edit - actually, looking again at the Feb chart i'd say mild/wet for Scotland. Settled (azores ridge) for Eng/Wales?

Edited November 17, 2017 by swebby

[MR EXTREMES]

Well I'm going to add my two penny's worth.

These long-range forecasts and models really can't have a clue as we spent several days looking at the models showing us cold then flipping to blow torch warmth.

Now my thinking is the long range ones are bound to be much much more erratic.

Anyway I wonder if the short range models  are going to stick or bust or will we get a royal winter full house.

But last autumn winter proves how sucked in we can become.

But addictive.

Edited November 17, 2017 by MR EXTREMES

[swfc]

12z gfs takes the low slightly further south at 96hrs???

[booferking]

Better run in short term low further south colder air further south and some snaw for the Scotts lucky devils.

[karlos1983]

isn't this just the most agonisingly frustrating chart EVER!!!