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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Height rises pushing up through europe into scandi could be the new trend seems to be getting picked up with the worlds worst model GFS:rofl:

Indeed! !you could head to the med for a tan,iceland for blizzards or stay in uk for hmmm rain?.well time to start looking for building blocks and trends again in the mop.gfs has at least given some great eye candy and memories I will certainly cherish! :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Looking closely at the GFS 06Z, it suggests that 15C could be reached somewhere every day next week. I commented 36 hours ago that "the GFS is almost never completely wrong". Well it was more than wrong this time - it's now gone back to the other models and beyond!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking closely at the GFS 06Z, it suggests that 15C could be reached somewhere every day next week. I commented 36 hours ago that "the GFS is almost never completely wrong". Well it was more than wrong this time - it's now gone back to the other models and beyond!

That 18z netweather meltdown run the other night seems like a very long time ago in a galaxy far far away now.:cray::gathering:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That 18z netweather meltdown run the other night seems like a very long time ago now.:cray:

cheer up, it was just 36 hours ago and it just shows how much model output can change in 36 hours, which of course means that nothing is set in stone...wait another 36 hours and I reckon there will be another different model solution!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
7 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

cheer up, it was just 36 hours ago and it just shows how much model output can change in 36 hours, which of course means that nothing is set in stone...wait another 36 hours and I reckon there will be another different model solution!

Correct. Even wetter and milder!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking closely at the GFS 06Z, it suggests that 15C could be reached somewhere every day next week. I commented 36 hours ago that "the GFS is almost never completely wrong". Well it was more than wrong this time - it's now gone back to the other models and beyond!

Any models predicting weather away from the climate norm at 120hrs+ is going to be hard to believe.

What we are seeing now for next week is the climate norm for North West Europe, albeit slightly to the extreme of the climate norm...... I mean 15-18c late November, that's just a kick in the teeth.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Looks like it's turning into a horror show the 06z GFS operational run, a protracted run of long-draw mild southwesterlies and the dreaded +ve heights across mainland Europe.

A glance at the extended 00z EPS 500mb mean/anomaly out day 15 doesn't offer much joy either, with low heights extending south toward the Azores which teleconnects to ridging to our south over mainland Europe right through to D15. Really need to see blues across mainland Europe, not oranges.

The only positives I can draw from the morning's outputs is the medium-longer term signal for cross polar +ve heights to continue. Only problem is, for now, is the ridging is too farr away from our part of the northern hemisphere to have much influence. For now, eastern N America and eastern Siberia/Far East will be the main benefactor in terms of deep cold digging way south thanks to high latitude ridging.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.a5909d9c42d06732cb5fa76f11b03db1.png

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Doesn’t the pattern pretty much always get shifted east as it gets closer to the given day(s)? If so there could well be quite a few changes yet. Just wondering that’s all

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
5 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Any models predicting weather away from the climate norm at 120hrs+ is going to be hard to believe.

What we are seeing now for next week is the climate norm for North West Europe, albeit slightly to the extreme of the climate norm...... I mean 15-18c late November, that's just a kick in the teeth.

Genuinely the most reliable ‘model’ over the last two weeks. Genuine. 

D81FDF49-8207-4D3E-B644-4A89EED5565C.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
9 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Correct. Even wetter and milder!

:80::doh:.....:laugh: (no words needed)

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Horrible looking charts as we head towards the end of autumn and start of winter! Those well above average temperatures not just here but for much of Europe are doing us no favours re: future cold spells.

Let's hope that the expected move of the stratospheric vortex from Canada to Siberia will help to shift the high pressure from the continent and allow a cooler flow. Having said that, I don't trust stratospheric forecasts 300 hours away. I have seen them change many times before.

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Well thanks GFS for making me look like a fool, I stuck up for you yesterday and you do this to me ha ha, never mind the model craziness as started early this winter, don't mind the mild\warm temps in summer has you have the light to enjoy it,in autumn winter its just a kick in the teeth , but maybe ecmf,gfs,ukmo,gem etc are all wrong and it will winter mayhem with 10ft snow drifts next week, here's hoping, PS love this forum.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS often does this. It pulls the coldest solutions for a few runs then goes completely to the other degree when it drops that.

The ECM op today is positively  a Michelin starred meal compared to the GFS Little Chef.

Not to say that it’s that good but at least has a chance to improve. The GFS continues its descent on the 06 hrs to the Freddie Kruger special this morning!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
13 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Below is a link to a blog from John Hammond which talks about recent model volatility and also a bit on the stratosphere. 

Relevant for this thread and no doubt of interest:

https://weathertrending.com/2017/11/17/horizon-battleground-britain/amp/

Thanks for that , great discovery . JH is one of my favourite forecasters and he hasn’t been taken over by the at least it will be mild bunch! Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks for that , great discovery . JH is one of my favourite forecasters and he hasn’t been taken over by the at least it will be mild bunch! Lol

What a brilliant Blog, very well balanced and easy to read, with his experience thrown in. I need to add that to the favourites bar! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

What a brilliant Blog, very well balanced and easy to read, with his experience thrown in. I need to add that to the favourites bar! 

I found it from following "@weathertrending" on Twitter :)

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS often does this. It pulls the coldest solutions for a few runs then goes completely to the other degree when it drops that.

The ECM op today is positively  a Michelin starred meal compared to the GFS Little Chef.

Not to say that it’s that good but at least has a chance to improve. The GFS continues its descent on the 06 hrs to the Freddie Kruger special this morning!

I would go for  BOM model scrapings from a greasy spoon trashcan if it showed just a hint of snow

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
35 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks for that , great discovery . JH is one of my favourite forecasters and he hasn’t been taken over by the at least it will be mild bunch! Lol

Yeah' JH is well known for he's expertise in model analysis.

And as much highlighted....

Much uncertainty!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
34 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks for that , great discovery . JH is one of my favourite forecasters and he hasn’t been taken over by the at least it will be mild bunch! Lol

Im sure that I read somewhere that he mentors other forecasters

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The GFS 06Z Ensembles show a lot more scatter for next week and good agreement for it to be cool in the final third.
Diagramme GEFS06zgraphe3_1000_241_26___.gif0z

Sorry, I can't see it in those graphs.:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Dec-Jan-Feb ECMWF Seasonal

This site is getting bookmarked

us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_1_1642_419.thumb.png.c932255e5f966cc752f4675f118d155d.pngus_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_2_1642_419.thumb.png.3c14a5f5500c33fcd8acab6416f7049c.pngus_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_3_1642_419.thumb.png.72db758502d537f85651740025464cb6.png

us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_1_1642_525.thumb.png.4862acb7916b0698b19fcf1b184ce68a.pngus_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_2_1642_525.thumb.png.ff9b9056a2fc1bc85a0e29478e73cfb3.pngus_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_3_1642_525.thumb.png.37cc3fdd94db0c0bb705696de63567d1.png

Nothing overly inspiring, but at least no blowtorch showing in terms of temps. Is the way i would read it...

https://weather.us/monthly-charts/euro/europe/temperature-diff-f/20171201-0000z.html 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Dec-Jan-Feb ECMWF Seasonal

This site is getting bookmarked

us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_1_1642_419.thumb.png.c932255e5f966cc752f4675f118d155d.pngus_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_2_1642_419.thumb.png.3c14a5f5500c33fcd8acab6416f7049c.pngus_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_3_1642_419.thumb.png.72db758502d537f85651740025464cb6.png

us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_1_1642_525.thumb.png.4862acb7916b0698b19fcf1b184ce68a.pngus_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_2_1642_525.thumb.png.ff9b9056a2fc1bc85a0e29478e73cfb3.pngus_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2017110100_3_1642_525.thumb.png.37cc3fdd94db0c0bb705696de63567d1.png

Nothing overly inspiring, but at least no blowtorch showing in terms of temps. Is the way i would read it...

https://weather.us/monthly-charts/euro/europe/temperature-diff-f/20171201-0000z.html 

To an idiot like me, it suggests:

December - mild-ish and wet

January - mild-ish and wet

February mild-ish and drier.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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