Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Dean E]

Agreed @CreweCold, the stubborn heights over the Mediterranean have been a problem for many winters now.

GFS 18z +96h that shortwave only has one way to go

And that is absorbed into a strengthening Low to our NW

 

ECM should not be discounted though, this is how trends start. Just as one door closes, doesn't mean its locked. 

Edited November 16, 2017 by Dean E

[blizzard81]

Nothing will be resolved tonight I am afraid. Even the fax charts have been woeful at short range flipping and flopping like I don't know what. We will see what the 00z runs bring. 

[damianslaw]

What a difference an evening makes, this thread was alive this time yesterday, and now we have a GFS 18z showing the complete opposite, its not called the crazy run for anything, but still people seem to get hung up on it - its either the saviour or the enemy for some. As I said expect further twists and turns and treat all models with much room for error within the very short-timescale at present - we have an unusual synoptic set up, that the models are going to struggle to get to grips with. Indeed the reliable timeframe over the next week or so, may only be 72 hrs tops.. making any medium term forecasting fraught with difficulty. (I feel I might need to keep repeating myself over the days ahead - some never learn..).

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

only the Atlantic sector - the euro high heights seem to drop away after week 2 (seen that before but eventually it has to be right). Atlantic ridging and scandi troughing and eventually high anomoly to our north. So nothing that screams deep mid winter but output that allows for cold scenarios to play out. 

As you know we have been here before with the ec46 but without hope what are we as they say. 

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Another positive is the ensembles are apparently clueless so anything could happen next week onwards..I don't think anyone could say right now what's going to happen next week with any degree of confidence which just shows how potentially complex the situation currently is..I found another positive..today's MO update mentions blocky patterns, cold weather and snow with frosty nights in the north which with a bit of tinkering could become more widespread...chin up fellow coldies

 

You are quiet right there Frosty

there are disagreements as little as day 4.

[nick sussex]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

only the Atlantic sector - the euro high heights seem to drop away after week 2 (seen that before but eventually it has to be right). Atlantic ridging and scandi troughing and eventually high anomoly to our north. So nothing that screams deep mid winter but output that allows for cold scenarios to play out.

BA that would tie in with what NOAA said re their December monthly forecast updated today. It seems as if the ECM is picking a different temp profile for the eastern CONUS compared to the others.

They talk about lower temps in the east so that could correlate with troughing there and hence the Atlantic ridge if that troughing is amplified.

Anyway heres their take for the USA:

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME LARGELY NEGATIVE DURING
MID-NOVEMBER AS A BLOCKING RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE BERING SEA WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT. THE DURATION OF THIS NEGATIVE
AO INDEX IS UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE TRANSIENT WITH MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING THAT THE AO INDEX BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL BY THE END OF NOVEMBER. MOST
INPUTS TO THE NMME AGREE ON ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. SINCE THE ECMWF MODEL AT WEEKS 3-4 (WHICH INCLUDES DEC
1-12)INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NECESSARY FOR THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME LEAD.

So it looks like they don't know whats happening re the east!

PS that blue highlighting links to the NOAA glossary of terms which automatically happens with copy and paste from their site, I wasn't implying British folk didn't know what equal chances were! lol

Edited November 16, 2017 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

As you know we have been here before with the ec46 but without hope what are we as they say. 

Just seen it globally and it's less interesting with a high anomoly hanging on to our sw - there are no signs of low anomolys over Europe which would do us any favours.  Not a write off by any means but no strong encouragement 

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

BA that would tie in with what NOAA said re their December monthly forecast updated today. It seems as if the ECM is picking a different temp profile for the eastern CONUS compared to the others.

They talk about lower temps in the east so that could correlate with troughing there and hence the Atlantic ridge if that troughing is amplified.

Anyway heres their take for the USA:

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME LARGELY NEGATIVE DURING
MID-NOVEMBER AS A BLOCKING RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE BERING SEA WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT. THE DURATION OF THIS NEGATIVE
AO INDEX IS UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE TRANSIENT WITH MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING THAT THE AO INDEX BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL BY THE END OF NOVEMBER. MOST
INPUTS TO THE NMME AGREE ON ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. SINCE THE ECMWF MODEL AT WEEKS 3-4 (WHICH INCLUDES DEC
1-12)INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NECESSARY FOR THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME LEAD.

So it looks like they don't know whats happening re the east!

Important to keep an eye on developments over the eastern USA seaboard over the days ahead, as it will be developments here which will influence conditions over here as we end the month and enter December - an amplified flow would aid some warm air advection through west greenaldn, and this will allow ridging from the northern heights south through the mid atlantic which conversely would enable a deep trough to anchor down through scandi - I mentioned this potential scenario occuring next week yesterday, and the general set up looks pre-desposed toward such an eventual scenario, but may take a little longer than perhaps it looked to take hold. I certainly do not see us staring at a lengthy westerly atlantic onslaught, far from it..

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

BA that would tie in with what NOAA said re their December monthly forecast updated today. It seems as if the ECM is picking a different temp profile for the eastern CONUS compared to the others.

They talk about lower temps in the east so that could correlate with troughing there and hence the Atlantic ridge if that troughing is amplified.

Anyway heres their take for the USA:

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME LARGELY NEGATIVE DURING
MID-NOVEMBER AS A BLOCKING RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE BERING SEA WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT. THE DURATION OF THIS NEGATIVE
AO INDEX IS UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE TRANSIENT WITH MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING THAT THE AO INDEX BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL BY THE END OF NOVEMBER. MOST
INPUTS TO THE NMME AGREE ON ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. SINCE THE ECMWF MODEL AT WEEKS 3-4 (WHICH INCLUDES DEC
1-12)INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NECESSARY FOR THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME LEAD.

So it looks like they don't know whats happening re the east!

PS that blue highlighting links to the NOAA glossary of terms which automatically happens with copy and paste from their site, I wasn't implying British folk didn't know what equal chances were! lol

their comment re temps firs part Dec was based on mondays run. Today's has high anomolys in that region!! 

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

their comment re temps firs part Dec was based on mondays run. Today's has high anomolys in that region!!

Yuk!

Doesn't Thursdays have less data! lol

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Important to keep an eye on developments over the eastern USA seaboard over the days ahead, as it will be developments here which will influence conditions over here as we end the month and enter December - an amplified flow would aid some warm air advection through west greenaldn, and this will allow ridging from the northern heights south through the mid atlantic which conversely would enable a deep trough to anchor down through scandi - I mentioned this potential scenario occuring next week yesterday, and the general set up looks pre-desposed toward such an eventual scenario, but may take a little longer than perhaps it looked to take hold. I certainly do not see us staring at a lengthy westerly atlantic onslaught, far from it..

If this is a failed attempt and there's not enough resistance from below to stop the +ve zonal winds downwelling from the strat, which IMO is very likely, I cant see anything other than a lengthy westerly atlantic onslaught lasting December, and judging by previous Nina winters, the only thing that's likely to save us seasonally is a full on potent top down split SSW.

Edited November 16, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[tight isobar]

Thermodynamics!!

Is the result-nil result here.

The state of miniscule movement' and /or expance is of absolute fruition is ridiculously absolute atm.

Back yawning of heights' and height placement 'just' cannot be deciphered point-blank via output atm.

The state of flux/(non ce) is almost diabolical!..

Hemisphercaly its a non absent worry' but as miniscule movement its massive.

The meteorlogical gods have tied' a knot..

And the un-doing will take some mathmatical/dynamical deciphering.

To many telecon' have been screaming of late..

And with current -raw- output..and evaluation..a flip across 'main compu-models looks likely.

@cold

 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Incredibly mild GFS 18z for much of the UK, 850mb anomaly of +8C, 850mb temperatures up to 12C in the south west approaches off Cornwall, 2m temps up to 16C across northern France!  Here in South Wales, we could potentially be looking at some very mild weather for late November if this model run verifies.

Don't forget this is a long way off so I wouldn't get too excited / disappointed depending if it's mild or cold you like. 

Finally it now looks very wet and not as mild as was previously shown for next Wednesday along with an increasing risk of strong to gale force westerly winds. 

[Man With Beard]

Funny, from looking at that you'd have thought something cold would come out of the ECM op run. So, so close:

[Daniel*]

I don't quite understand the 'game over' comment was it ever on? Making an overall assessment  based on op is a foolish thing to do. Nothing is defined yet, and it will remain that way till the start of the new week, where the mist should disperse. Already some model fatigue setting in I sense, tis not even winter yet, lower your expectations. Undeniably interest is there so nothing to be disappointed of, we were never promised anything wintry. 

Edited November 16, 2017 by Daniel*

[Man With Beard]

21 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

As you know we have been here before with the ec46 but without hope what are we as they say. 

EC46 has done very well this month to be fair ... except with regards to euro heights.

[damianslaw]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If this is a failed attempt and there's not enough resistance from below to stop the +ve zonal winds downwelling from the strat, which IMO is very likely, I cant see anything other than a lengthy westerly atlantic onwards lasting December, and judging by previous Nina winters, the only thing that's likely to save us seasonally is a full on potent top down split SSW.

La Nina forcing might well suggest such a scenario we shall see. I'm going to refrain from model watching until Sunday, as I just think the margin of error at the moment is exceptionally high, and its not worth drawing any conclusions from the models until then. In the meantime we have a couple of very pleasant autumnal days to enjoy with frost, and sunshine.. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

La Nina forcing might well suggest such a scenario we shall see. I'm going to refrain from model watching until Sunday, as I just think the margin of error at the moment is exceptionally high, and its not worth drawing any conclusions from the models until then. In the meantime we have a couple of very pleasant autumnal days to enjoy with frost, and sunshine.. 

And because its too painful to watch, good idea!

[Cheshire Freeze]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If this is a failed attempt and there's not enough resistance from below to stop the +ve zonal winds downwelling from the strat, which IMO is very likely, I cant see anything other than a lengthy westerly atlantic onslaught lasting December, and judging by previous Nina winters, the only thing that's likely to save us seasonally is a full on potent top down split SSW.

Nail on the head Feb. Couldn't have put it better myself.

We are, IMO staring down the barrel of a +NAO winter. The GLOSEA sees it, CFS sees it and I see it (along with you and a few others)

This isn't to say, however, that some areas can't potentially do well from potent topplers ala Christmas 2004.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Nail on the head Feb. Couldn't have put it better myself.

We are, IMO staring down the barrel of a +NAO winter. The GLOSEA sees it, CFS sees it and I see it (along with you and a few others)

This isn't to say, however, that some areas can't potentially do well from potent topplers ala Christmas 2004.

plus of course you cant rule out a late Jan, Feb potent brief Easterly within a generally +NAO spell or potent true cold zonality, which is the reason I always keep model watching right until the mid spring.

[tight isobar]

+nao situ's are frought with danger/divergance in la^nina set ups.

Thus'responce of even raw/op' output inter run-2 run.

Its northern'hemisphercaly like chucking myself into a beer tasting comp...

With a -tee-total convert...

The outcome is messy' but the cause will' OUT.. 

[tight isobar]

15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

+nao situ's are frought with danger/divergance in la^nina set ups.

Thus'responce of even raw/op' output inter run-2 run.

Its northern'hemisphercaly like chucking myself into a beer tasting comp...

With a -tee-total convert...

The outcome is messy' but the cause will' OUT.. 

Im backing a raw output non-divergance..

Of cross model mid term notable cold!!!

Within-reliable.. and well within 48 hrs .

 

relevant!

Edited November 16, 2017 by tight isobar

[snowray]

I'm moving to Iceland!

[tight isobar]

22 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Im now backing a raw output non-divergance..

Of cross model mid term notable cold!!!

Within-reliable.. and well within 48 hrs .

 

relevant!

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

The Beeb are still mentioning "something wintry" for Northern UK next week, as the fronts bump into the cold air that's apparently still around over Scotland. So they must know something we don't! Keep the faith y'all