Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[swfc]

Very explosive 12 early on!!! Will it snow in Iceland tho

[bluearmy]

So gfs has ditched its cold solution for us - what are the odds that the 12z ec op will now come from cluster 2 !!!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The problem is with these w-based setups or anything where low heights / pressure / pv lobes engage each other to the N of the Uk, they rarely give you another chance down the line, its all or nothing and the jet just fires up and your back looking to deep fi again.

Good job its mid November Feb

BTW I agree- i feel we are looking at an unsettled spell now, i really was hoping for something cold dry foggy etc, its not going to happen.The big question is how long this Atlantic driven pattern lasts,hopefully not as long as the past few 'winters'.

The ukmo 144 is soooooo frustrating- its those heights across Southern Europe killing our chances...again.

[festivalking]

4 hours ago, festivalking said:

Ding Ding Round 1! So the first heavy weight bout of the season gets underway. In the Blue corner we have GFS with a flurry of cold promises and in the red corner we have the UKMO and ECM hoping to keep the heating bills down for a bit longer. Betting has swung one way and the next current favourites are the ECM/UKMO combination not to say GFS can’t influence a result.

All puns aside this is what model watching for me is all about. Disagreements in the long term is normal but into the short to medium is just fascinating! Just hope I don’t get model burn out as its only mid November!

UKMO/ECM 1 - 0 GFS

..........now watch ECM go cold

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

So gfs has ditched its cold solution for us - what are the odds that the 12z ec op will now come from cluster 2 !!!!

In a word....no, sorry that sounds a bit dismissive - i should say i doubt that very very much Blue.

Think a period of Westerlies is pretty much nailed on now- the million dollar question is for how long.

GFS 12z as expected is pretty ghastly.

Back to FI cold hunting it is then..

Edited November 16, 2017 by northwestsnow

[booferking]

GFS should be banned from the world and not be allowed to be viewed or be discussed in any weather chat fourm in this universe .

What a mess blocked they said.

Edited November 16, 2017 by booferking

[nick sussex]

The UKMO at T120hrs isn't that bad but then implodes at T144hrs. The GFS goes from hero to zero in 12hrs.

The models are still making a drama over the shortwaves and so although the towel is being readied I wouldn't throw it in just yet. We best wait till tonights ECM run.

[andy_leics22]

Well, the rest of that run didn't turn out as I was expecting 

*looks for expletive emoticon*

If only that high over Greenland at T153 was about 300 miles further South, we'd be in business! Oh well, still more changes to come and it's only November. Still a long way to go ths winter.

[igloo]

Just now, booferking said:

GFS should be banned from the world and not be allowed to be viewed or be discussed in any weather chat fourm in this universe .

i have to agree some of the dross it churns out it must be a embarrassment across the pond the euros on the other hand are atleast consistent

[phil nw.]

Ah well it didn't go the cold route GFS pretty much with the UKMO now.

UK T120hrs                                                   GFS T120hrs.

It looks like a decent weekend with a couple of frosts under the high before it get's flattened and the Atlantic milder dampness moves in.

Edited November 16, 2017 by phil nw.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, phil nw. said:

Ah well it didn't go the cold route GFS pretty much with the UKMO now.

UKT120hrs

It looks like a decent weekend with a couple of frosts under the high before it get's flattened and the Atlantic milder dampness moves in.

Yes, looks like the lows flatten the ridge and it heads into Europe.

The concern is the downstream profile implodes and eventually the decent looking upstream profile will do exactly the same, and that will mean us looking into Fantasy island for hope.

[mulzy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, looks like the lows flatten the ridge and it heads into Europe.

The concern is the downstream profile implodes and eventually the decent looking upstream profile will do exactly the same, and that will mean us looking into Fantasy island for hope.

Welcome to Winter 2017/18 but chin up, sometimes FI charts do come to fruition!

PS - I count FI as anything after day 6.

Edited November 16, 2017 by mulzy

[Captain Shortwave]

   

Ultimately we have cold and unstable air towards Iceland with a series of Atlantic lows which it can be drawn into creating an Atlantic trough, whilst we have heights to our north west we have these cut off and too far away from the UK to steer low pressure to our south. We need subtropical ridging to push north and allow cold pools such as those over Iceland to clear south east to give us a chance. In the end the increasing likelyhood is that we will see a deep trough develop just to the west of us which could kick off an unsettled period of weather and low pressure is allowed to move close to the UK and deepen in response to the cold air moving south into the Atlantic. 

GFS

In the end the GFS like the ECM this morning tend to keep heights fairly high over Europe with a north/south split, but there is scope for the jet to move further south though not enough probably to deliver cold conditions (Just unsettled or very wet the options).

There is always a chance that we could get another go at getting some cold conditions, but that relies on the movement of any arctic heights which have proven to be very hard to predict.

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, looks like the lows flatten the ridge and it heads into Europe.

The concern is the downstream profile implodes and eventually the decent looking upstream profile will do exactly the same, and that will mean us looking into Fantasy island for hope.

Split jet patterns often throw up disagreements in the earlier frames between the models.In this case too much forcing finally goes north rather than sending that mid-Atlantic trough under.

I think many of us although liking the earlier GFS runs were dubious because UKMO and ECM never went for it as a relatively early stage.

Never say never though whilst the vortex is still under strength.

  

[nick sussex]

Although theres not that much excitement on offer for most of the UK upto T144hrs. For northern Scotland theres the chance for something wintry.

Several shortwaves run east in the UKMO and theres colder air just to the north there so one of these might engage that and bring some snow more especially to higher ground.

Its finely balanced especially with these shortwaves which the models are having a hard time pinning down.

 

[Singularity]

 

On and on it goes. UKMO not as door-closing as GFS as of day 6.

It does feel like we're just picking out of a hat filled with ensemble runs. Typical of situations where slight differences in the placement of disturbances within the trough circulation at just a few day's range have drastic impacts down the line. It was on day 3 that I could see GFS leaning things less favourably than the 06z, leading to an expectation that this run would evolve into a ripe pile of dog eggs.

If it wasn't for the displaced subtropical ridge over Europe, it might yet have been rescued in the midweek period, but instead the trough was held too far NW and so a ridge was unable to establish just east of Canada and hold the progression up. Not sure the Euro ridge would have been sunk even then, though.

 

The UKMO 12z is tricky to gauge as of day 6, for it has a bit of trough disruption going on with the one SW of the UK, with signs that a shallow secondary low might peel off into Europe, but then it also has a very vigorous low by Canada which may simply power east as it engages with the cold air passing by to the N of the UK. That threat is clearer in the traditional view;

It is getting to the point where I'd just like to get past this tricky period; this extreme level of uncertainty is a drain on even the most experienced of meteorologists; I expect there's been some stressful days at the UK Met Office given the lack of coherent movements in the model output either toward or away from their recent outlook summaries for the middle to latter part of next week.

[Summer Sun]

Quite a change from GFS for the end of next week with it ditching the real cold air

 

[Mucka]

Unfortunate output after this mornings GFS 00z stuck to its guns.

At least the 12z wants reamplify in deep FI so that could be a good sign for early December and that itself is a reminder we are still in mid November.

Disappointing to see good charts evaporate into COB territory (could of been) but a long winter ahead.

Edited November 16, 2017 by Mucka

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I have to say though, from past experiences we can all say most times when the Atlantic does fire up and we find it difficult to shut it down for a while.. But when you eventually do, it can deliver 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows Scotland holding onto the chillier air but always that bit milder the further south you go

[mb018538]

GFS slowly revert back to type, with the polar PV tightening into its usual circular grip, with zonality returning. Wonder what ECM will make of it all....

[mulzy]

Chin up folks - It's only mid November!

The medium range output is not the usual raging PV over Greenland - we will get a few more opportunities over the next few months.

 

[nick sussex]

NOAA criticized both the GFS 00 and 06hrs runs as out of sync with the rest by next Monday. Additionally given teleconnections the GFS seems to be ejecting the eastern CONUS troughing too quickly. They do expect troughing to last there till at least next Thursday supported by high pressure near Baja California.

This doesn't mean we can expect any miracles but the ejection of the troughing does effect the downstream pattern. You'll note the UKMO at T144hrs looks like holding the troughing there for longer.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS slowly revert back to type, with the polar PV tightening into its usual circular grip, with zonality returning. Wonder what ECM will make of it all....

Aye, things are defo not looking as good as they could be, are they? Far be it for me to suggest that the upcoming winter is about to start just as the last one left off...But!

Och well...more runs needed?

[MR EXTREMES]

I really think I'm going to throw the towel in.

Very disappointed indeed it's not going to happen the heights to the south are really stubborn maybe Nina forcing is the thorn in the coldies sides.

Once again close no cigar but hey mild and stormy in the later runs.

Although it's only November so maybe we might get another shot.