Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[bluearmy]

32 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The JMA long-ranger is relatively positive in my book.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/pztmap.php

with no low anomaly to our south the climatological 'average' will be too high to allow the pattern to advect cold to nw europe 

Edited November 16, 2017 by bluearmy

[comet]

I still would not discount a cold/ very cold spell establishing itself in 6 to 10 days time. Still plenty to play for.

The Jarma charts for what they are worth are good.

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

with no low anomaly to our south the climatological 'average' will be too high to allow the pattern to advect cold to nw europe 

Northern Britain looks like being generally on the cold side during the next few weeks and more according to the Experts with snow at times, unless I'm missing something, there is a chance of wintry spells for the uk as has been shown on some recent / current model output..especially further north!

Edited November 16, 2017 by Frosty.

[swilliam]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

with no low anomaly to our south the climatological 'average' will be too high to allow the pattern to advect cold to nw europe 

High anomaly to the NW, low anomaly to the SW and E - looks pretty good to me for an anomaly chart.

[tight isobar]

Ooz ec-

Further highlighting....divergance!!

Wide open being the word.

Some complexions to say the very least.

Look-forwards to yet another set of 12z......

[Timmytour]

2 hours ago, festivalking said:

Ding Ding Round 1! So the first heavy weight bout of the season gets underway. In the Blue corner we have GFS with a flurry of cold promises and in the red corner we have the UKMO and ECM hoping to keep the heating bills down for a bit longer. Betting has swung one way and the next current favourites are the ECM/UKMO combination not to say GFS can’t influence a result.

All puns aside this is what model watching for me is all about. Disagreements in the long term is normal but into the short to medium is just fascinating! Just hope I don’t get model burn out as its only mid November!

For me it's hard to have confidence in the GFS when it's not maintaining consistency within the early part of its own runs, no matter about the broad consistency of where the last three end up.

I feel disappointment in the air regarding the rest of this month, but encouragement going forward into winter.  We surely can't get a complete winter of promising models with nothing delivered can we...not twice in a row surely!

Mention is often made of winters past which have been magical very often begining with models alternating between the freezer and mild mush, perhaps understandable because of our position.

However.....what about Bartlett dominated winters?  How soon do they become apparent?

Would seeing charts like this in November 1988 for example have caused great excitement among those hoping for a cold winter?  Of was it already clear then what was going to be the outcome

I refuse to get my hopes up this time...I will keep my feet on the ground....but I'll despair if we turn out to have a similar outcome!!! 

 

 

[Duane S.]

13 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

For me it's hard to have confidence in the GFS when it's not maintaining consistency within the early part of its own runs, no matter about the broad consistency of where the last three end up.

I feel disappointment in the air regarding the rest of this month, but encouragement going forward into winter.  We surely can't get a complete winter of promising models with nothing delivered can we...not twice in a row surely!

Mention is often made of winters past which have been magical very often begining with models alternating between the freezer and mild mush, perhaps understandable because of our position.

However.....what about Bartlett dominated winters?  How soon do they become apparent?

Would seeing charts like this in November 1988 for example have caused great excitement among those hoping for a cold winter?  Of was it already clear then what was going to be the outcome

I refuse to get my hopes up this time...I will keep my feet on the ground....but I'll despair if we turn out to have a similar outcome!!! 

 

 

But that eventually led to this...

On April the 3rd of the following year 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

There's still some chances of snow for us up North at least, that's something!! And for mid November we should take it! 

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, swilliam said:

High anomaly to the NW, low anomaly to the SW and E - looks pretty good to me for an anomaly chart.

The surface feature that would probably appear to our South being a high. The point being that to bring any cold right across the country requires a flow which generally means you need low pressure to our south. Any low heights whatsoever over France will always show as a low anomoly because the climatological average is fairly high. There is no anomoly showing on that jma chart so I would assume that there is no signal for low heights that week which means you likey see a weak upper ridge as is standard late November for that area between the Atlantic and e European lows 

[phil nw.]

Coming back to my current hobby horse-the split jet scenario-which i posted about yesterday.The crucial time when looking at this evenings charts will be around day 5- T120hrs,this is where modelling is showing how the jet splits north and south.It really would be all over quite quickly if the energy all swept into the northern arm so this is a key development to monitor.

A look at the latest runs at the same time GFS/UKMO/ECM

We need to see that trough out west heading south as it did on last night's GFS 18z and to a similar extent on the 00z run.This avoided the 2 main pv lobes phasing together which kept a window open for continued ridging north of the Azores high and this in conjunction with the Scandinavian trough eventually brought the cold south.The GFS 06z run has moved some way towards the other 2 but we still managed some cold later on before it all broke down. 

 

Edited November 16, 2017 by phil nw.

[Singularity]

  

One thing I've been struck by in terms of the GFS runs today is the removal of the west-based negative NAO. 

ECM has a sharper trough-ridge-trough sequence across the U.S. which allows the ridge to nose into NE Canada and seemingly force disruption and a total split apart of the trough that GFS allows to remain in-situ over Canada. This being another important piece of the puzzle alongside the N. Atlantic calamity capers.

Perhaps we have here a case in which we could really do with ECM falling foul to it's tendency to go a bit far with ridge/trough amplification? That being different to the usual situation in which that produces tantalising charts that prove merely to be cruel teasers?

[andy_leics22]

GFS 12z rolling out soon. Going to be an interesting one i'm sure!

I'm expecting another downgrade but i'll gladly be proven wrong  I knew I shouldn't have got carried away with last nights 18z. Was lured in by the pub run AGAIN 

[feb1991blizzard]

41 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

 

We need to see that trough out west heading south as it did on last night's GFS 18z and to a similar extent on the 00z run.This avoided the 2 main pv lobes phasing together which kept a window open for continued ridging north of the Azores high and this in conjunction with the Scandinavian trough eventually brought the cold south.The GFS 06z run has moved some way towards the other 2 but we still managed some cold later on before it all broke down. 

 

I'm afraid that's about to bust the 12z already.

[igloo]

22 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

GFS 12z rolling out soon. Going to be an interesting one i'm sure!

I'm expecting another downgrade but i'll gladly be proven wrong  I knew I shouldn't have got carried away with last nights 18z. Was lured in by the pub run AGAIN 

yes i does look as if your right even on the early stages of the GFS everything is moving east more quickly this time round its looking more and more likely the UKMO has shown the way once again 

[Summer Sun]

Milder air further east at t96 compared to the 06z

NE Scotland is around 5c warmer on this run

Edited November 16, 2017 by Summer Sun

[karlos1983]

looks a better run to me so far, low seems further south to me at +114? Could be wrong. need few more frames yet...

Edited November 16, 2017 by karlos1983
typo

[frosty ground]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

looks a better run to me so far, low seems further south to me at +114?

I don't see a bust and I don't see the relevance of the colder air moving away quicker at 96 hours..... 

 

[karlos1983]

UKMO +96, 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO +96, 

That's a definite bust as well.

[andy_leics22]

This may not actually turn out to be a bad run in the longer term. High building over Greenland and after the initial low throwing a spanner into the works, it may turn out to be a pretty blocked scenario.

 

[Summer Sun]

Early next week looking mild and dry

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Early next week looking mild and dry

Unless you live in the North?

[karlos1983]

Can imagine the +168 UKMO chart wont look to pretty if it's cold you want sooner rather than later

 

 

Edited November 16, 2017 by karlos1983

[Methuselah]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Unless you live in the North?

Or even better, move to Day 10!

[feb1991blizzard]

The problem is with these w-based setups or anything where low heights / pressure / pv lobes engage each other to the N of the Uk, they rarely give you another chance down the line, its all or nothing and the jet just fires up and your back looking to deep fi again.