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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

Ding Ding Round 1! So the first heavy weight bout of the season gets underway. In the Blue corner we have GFS with a flurry of cold promises and in the red corner we have the UKMO and ECM hoping to keep the heating bills down for a bit longer. Betting has swung one way and the next current favourites are the ECM/UKMO combination not to say GFS can’t influence a result.

All puns aside this is what model watching for me is all about. Disagreements in the long term is normal but into the short to medium is just fascinating! Just hope I don’t get model burn out as its only mid November!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

well this doesn't read well (if cold is your thing). The 18z and 00z from the GFS whilst nice to look at are pretty unlikely IMO.

 ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.6b479ef5279b3bff9a0782d5d56a9f15.gif

you can't polish a turd i'm afraid. 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

well this doesn't read well (if cold is your thing). The 18z and 00z from the GFS whilst nice to look at are pretty unlikely IMO.

 ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.6b479ef5279b3bff9a0782d5d56a9f15.gif

you can't polish a turd i'm afraid. 

You can’t Karlos - note cold cluster 2 now showing on the 00z model suite T2max graph whereas it wasn’t on last few runs 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

AO watch - not really worth posting the variation. We seem to have settled around -4. Landing will be somewhere between -3.8 and -4.2 around 21 st before slow recovery towards neutral (or not )

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You can’t Karlos - note cold cluster 2 now showing on the 00z model suite T2max graph whereas it wasn’t on last few runs 

Lets hope that gains some more support. :) after all... The harder the struggle, the more Glorious the Triumph :spiteful:

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

well this doesn't read well (if cold is your thing). The 18z and 00z from the GFS whilst nice to look at are pretty unlikely IMO.

 ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.6b479ef5279b3bff9a0782d5d56a9f15.gif

you can't polish a turd i'm afraid. 

It would be a very different chart for Glasgow - a lot more colder runs for the north - but most members couldn't quite push the cold out of the south.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

this  show a few going for quite a temp drop towards the end of the short ensembles 

graphe3_1000_231_78___.gif

Are those the ensembles for Dudley there Weirpig?:unsure2:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Shame there are no ensembles for Glasgow or Edinburgh.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Shame there are no ensembles for Glasgow or Edinburgh.

There are.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=56.85263197431681&lon=-4.960378970739974

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=55.980566851040614&lon=-3.218867463885612

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Interesting tweet by Ian furgusson unusually unsettled in the Mediterranean.

Northern blocking and unsettled med good combination but perhaps not this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Shame there are no ensembles for Glasgow or Edinburgh.

Why not ask a Mod to create one. I asked for Dublin many years ago to be added and they obliged

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Shame there are no ensembles for Glasgow or Edinburgh.

Let alone Inverness, Aberdeen and Aviemore! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mainly mild on the 06z ensembles then, the colder members very much in the minority, even Berlin is trending milder. I usually find the 06z run to be the least reliable though out of the four.

06z Ensembles

Glasgow

Edinburgh

London

Berlin

Milan

graphe_ens3-3.gif

graphe_ens3-4.gif

graphe_ens3-2.gif

graphe_ens3.gif

graphe_ens3-1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Mainly mild on the 06z ensembles then, the colder members very much in the minority, even Berlin is trending milder. I usually find the 06z run to be the least reliable though out of the four.

06z Ensembles

Glasgow

Edinburgh

London

Berlin

Milan

graphe_ens3-3.gif

graphe_ens3-4.gif

graphe_ens3-2.gif

graphe_ens3.gif

graphe_ens3-1.gif

BTW They are not exact locations as you just click on the map for them and I wouldn't know exactly, so they are rough, but as they are only 850's, with the resolution of the GEFS, they will be a very accurate guide, you can get the 2m temps on wetterzentrale as well I think, and pressure ensembles as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Thanks for that. The map that I use on Meteociel does not go north enough, it stops around Cumbria.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, snowray said:

Thanks for that. The map that I use on Meteociel does not go north enough, it stops around Cumbria.:)

Just select Europe and then it goes further.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just select Europe and then it goes further.

Brilliant, got it. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 hours ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Look artic lining up 6z

That'll be down to all the refrigerated lorries piling down the M6?:wink:

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Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That'll be down to all the refrigerated lorries piling down the M6?:wink:

piling down the M6 ???? parked up on the M6 more like :( lol

Edited by V for Very Cold
mistype
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Longer term signal doesn't indicate the usual mild mush fest, still some interest for coldies, especially further north. This isn't your typical uk late autumn into early winter pattern so wintry surprises could occur as has been shown on some of the more recent output..it's great to be part of the early season netweather meltdown as was the case last night when the forum was buzzing..hopefully that's just a little taste of what's to come during the months ahead.:)..cheers:drinks: 

Edited by Frosty.
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