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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

00z GFS

How's your Summer going? :closedeyes:

h5001111slp.thumb.png.2d2f8d6d0ea953f8405b58b593e593e7.png

 

Best on offer looking to the East  - but thats a whole week away.

 

h500slp.png

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

And here begins major issues.

A whole array of shortwave develop!

Crushing the route for waa.  

@backtrack

Screenshot_2017-11-16-10-05-03.png6z

Screenshot_2017-11-16-10-04-46.png00z

gfs-0-144.pngooz

gfs-0-138.png6z

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Bit of a climb down by the GFS  block nowhere near as strong  shortwaves spawning in the Atlantic    and all at t144

Incoming Low looks like will take the block out  mmm   still its only November

gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Bit of a climb down by the GFS  block nowhere near as strong  shortwaves spawning in the Atlantic    and all at t144

gfsnh-0-144.png

Yes that is the key time where the split jet sends more activity into the northern arm. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

At D5 its still not even close to the ECM, yes more progressive than the last three runs, UKMO taking the middle ground it would seem. 

gfs-0-138.png

UW144-21.gif

ECM1-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

And here begins major issues.

A whole array of shortwave develop!

Crushing the route for waa.  

@backtrack

Screenshot_2017-11-16-10-05-03.png6z

Screenshot_2017-11-16-10-04-46.png00z

gfs-0-144.pngooz

gfs-0-138.png6z

Yes and its that shortwave up near Iceland thats the spanner in the works again, as soon as you see that going east up there its pretty clear where the run is going. 

 

Hold on, looking good again as the cold air fights back...:)

gfs-0-180.png

gfs-1-180.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Wait can the GFS save the day with a second bit of the cherry building heights again along with a slider.:rofl:

gfsnh-0-156.png

That dosent sound so outlandish   cold air is marching towards the Uk   maybe the low will slide under giving copious amounts of snowfall?.  Then Again

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Rescued from the claws of defeat. 

gfsnh-0-180.png?6

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Check out these bad-boys..

Talk about holding the line.. defending against any infer to greenland whatsoever!

Any football manager would be chuffed!!

Screenshot_2017-11-16-10-21-10.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Chalk and cheese at T192, something has got to give later on today, maybe a third solution like HP centred over the uk. mmmmm:doh:

gfs-0-192.png

ECM1-192.gif

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

NE the place to be on this run, would be a pretty decent snow/cold event up there

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Classic undercut/slider scenario on the 6z. 

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Can the gfs  be incorrect three times in a row.Huge differences between the models .

Hand on heart and without support from the ECM or UKMO

You would have to say The GFS is on very Rocky Ground,the saga will continue at

4pm this afternoon.

C.S. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes Punx, The cold air is never far from the UK, Very fine margins.

viewimage-10.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
24 minutes ago, weirpig said:

That dosent sound so outlandish   cold air is marching towards the Uk   maybe the low will slide under giving copious amounts of snowfall?.  Then Again

Good Morning Weirpig and other fellow posters.

As a novice I find the current set up very complex and I am not surprised the models are differing from run to run and betwixt each other. However if the high can establish in the correct location to benefit us it could well stick around for some time and although there is not a lot of cold air around it could gradually arrive as the continent starts to cool down once the air source also becomes established. 

Past historic winters once we have everything in place have seen the cold weather very difficult to shift. I recall listening to the weather forecasts during the winter of 1962/63 and if my memory serves me right milder weather was often predicted 2 to 3 days ahead, but it did not arrive in the eastern part of the UK as the high pressure held strong.

Kind regards

Dave

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GFS 6z again pumping up some very mild air up to and across southern & western UK for late November by next Wednesday. Here in South Wales max temps would again be 14-15C (that's been achieved quite a few times already this month) but with no rain forecast and especially if we get some sunshine I wouldn't be surprised to see it get even milder than that. 

However, I have to say, I'm not convinced it will turn out to be a dry day here in South Wales, as in this sort of set up at this time of year we often see lots of damp, drizzly and misty conditions along the coasts and hills of the south and west, having said that, parts of east & north Wales often gets the best of any drier, brighter weather in this scenario. Time will tell :) 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Even if it doesn't come off this time ,the very cold air over Scandinavia and Northern Eastern Europe,is very encouraging.Sometimes it's hard to shift and nice to  see these pressure patterns this early in the season for a change.

 

Sometimes for the Uk it takes several attempts before the cold air wins out.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Even if it doesn't come off this time ,the very cold air over Scandinavia and Northern Eastern Europe,is very encouraging.Sometimes it's hard to shift and nice to  see these pressure patterns this early in the season for a change.

 

Sometimes for the Uk it takes several attempts before the cold air wins out.

Indeed, cold air over Scandi is often an encouraging sign, I remember in March 2013 we had a similar set up, with warm southerlies threatening early on in the month. They made inroads for a day or two but the cold air kept building over Scandi and this won out in the end.

The longer we can keep the high over the UK for the greater the chance that the cold air will build to our east :)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I think the chances of the GFS 06hrs run verifying are low against the ECM and UKMO which resolutely want to phase energy to the nw of the UK at T144hrs.

I’d be shocked if anything like the GFS 00hrs run made a return given even the 06hrs has latched onto more shortwave issues in the Atlantic.

Anyway as ever us coldies will keep hoping for a last gasp miracle which needs to start tonight.

Because of the complex behaviour of shortwaves and timing issues as to when phasing takes place there might still be some room for changes but best to lower expectations for the timebeing .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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