Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[MR EXTREMES]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No,,,its not good for coldies at all.In fact it just looks very wet at 144.

We are left holding a torch for the GFS op which has little support amongst its suite.

It is a shame because many aspects of the NH profile looks good for us, ultimately its going to count for very little as things stand, and we're just going to get rained on, quite a lot.(whats new).

Hate posting negative thoughts so i'll finish by saying its only November- the big freeze can wait until Mid December..

I agree tbh and ECM don't look good either.

With heights seeping away from Greenland replaced by low pressure and south west flow.

And west based nao.

Deep cold plunging into most of Europe.

At least it's not winter yet.

[Stozzy]

Anything is up for grabs , the models are all over the place . If the gfs 6z shows similar too this morning and last nights run. Then maybe it could be onto something . 

[bluearmy]

Looking at the ecm mean and spreads the NH plot is pretty good for coldies if not for nw Europe with the pattern a tad north and west of where we need it 

suspect a cluster of eps will reflect the gfs solution days 7/10 

[northwestsnow]

18 minutes ago, knocker said:

I think it rather amusing this morning that all those of a certain persuasion who have spent endless hours vilifying the European high are rather dependent on it, if this morning's gfs is going to come to fruition, to block sufficient energy eastbound from the eastern seaboard to allow the colder air to plunge south east of Greenland.

That's interesting- i was led to believe Low pressure,certainly across southern latitudes of Europe was one of the main ingredients of UK cold....

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at the ecm mean and spreads the NH plot is pretty good for coldies if not for nw Europe with the pattern a tad north and west of where we need it 

suspect a cluster of eps will reflect the gfs solution days 7/10 

Thats interesting Blue- i mentioned earlier the NH profile isn't actually that bad, our problem is we pretty much every piece to the jigsaw to hit the jackpot-

Some lingering hope would be sustained if we see a cluster approaching GFS 00z-i would take that right now in a heartbeat.

EC mean isn't great- and its showing quite a decent height anomaly where we dont want it- Europe by day 10!

Edited November 16, 2017 by northwestsnow

[chionomaniac]

A massive 15C 850hPA difference between the GFS and ECM op's at T+192. Truly remarkable

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That's interesting- i was led to believe Low pressure,certainly across southern latitudes of Europe was one of the main ingredients of UK cold....

I was actually just talking about the current pattern and the near future not making a general assessment of the best scenarios for incursions of cold into the UK. A route I rarely travel as there is already a fiendish amount of traffic and I fear at the end of the road madness beckons.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

EC mean isn't great- and its showing quite a decent height anomaly where we dont want it- Europe by day 10!

That's yesterday's 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

A massive 15C 850hPA difference between the GFS and ECM op's at T+192. Truly remarkable

Yes chino, very mild and probably really quite wet for the UK on EC-moist South westerlies to usher in the christmas markets, hopefully you will be providing some festive cheer in the strat thread soon

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I was actually just talking about the current pattern and the near future not making a general assessment of the best scenarios for incursions of cold into the UK. A route I rarely travel as there is already a fiendish amount of traffic and I fear at the end of the road madness beckons.

Understood

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Frosty. said:

That's yesterday's 

OK karl im having terrible problems with this issue- i dont think todays is much better

[Matty88]

It's the first time in 2 years the GFS has had a consistant couple of runs with a decent cold snap/spell so I'm happy to make the most of it - even if it doesn't come to fruition (accepting this is more than likely!!!).. certainly makes for fun and games. 

Bracing for the dramatic twist back to mild SW's.... but keeping everything crossed (probably won't be enough !)

[Summer Sun]

The GFS and ECM means are much closer with the 850's for the UK unlike the Op's

[jules216]

guys to cheer you up a bit I had a look at this mornings EC ensembles for my location in Slovakia from our nat.weather agency SHMU and they do nice graphics how the operational run stands in the ensembles,

on the attachment the 4th chart is for mean sea level preasure, operational is in red squares and ensemble mean is black line, you can see the OP is 1025hPA, mean is amout 10hPA lower and some ensembles go as low as 1005hPa, that is for next wednesday/thursday, if you want GFS to verify then lower pressure is better as it reflects better aligned block as Slovakia is bang in Central Europe, we will have all to play for as the scatter is huge! 

[tight isobar]

23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The GFS and ECM means are much closer with the 850's for the UK unlike the Op's

!!!!

Yeah' certainly consistancy there -regards the means-gfs/ecm.

A world apart from the two ops!

Sadly expect a backtrack from the gfs 6z this morning.

However' also expect the un-expected..

In current modeling.

Gfs ooz london ens.

850's

Edited November 16, 2017 by tight isobar

[Man With Beard]

Perhaps 30-40% of this morning's ECM ensembles are of great interest to coldies by T162 - there's going to be a decent sized cluster of runs that clear low pressure through the channel with pressure rising to the north.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

It looks to me has the GFS is onto something this time around,in my thoughts I think the ecmf will backtrack some what, also the last 3 runs have consistently pushed the cold south, this time I think the GFS is correct,also ECM struggles with this sort of set up, watch the 6z put egg on my face ha ha 

[Ali1977]

21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Perhaps 30-40% of this morning's ECM ensembles are of great interest to coldies by T162 - there's going to be a decent sized cluster of runs that clear low pressure through the channel with pressure rising to the north.

Yep, people are writing the GFS off as ECM Op doesn't follow - the NH pattern still has a great chance of producing some v cold weather for us - we've been in much worse situations over the last 3 years that's for sure. A few tweaks and the cold floodgates could well open, and with this set up a prolonged event 

[swilliam]

22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Perhaps 30-40% of this morning's ECM ensembles are of great interest to coldies by T162 - there's going to be a decent sized cluster of runs that clear low pressure through the channel with pressure rising to the north.

Yes you can see the split @ on the 21st

[weirpig]

Im a bit bemused this morning.  The Gfs 0z  was a very good run (it was never going to be as good as the 18z)  the UKMO is awful  but the ECM has deffo made  a beeline towards the GFS . for me all to play for .  EDIT  of course this could all change on the 6z  in which case disregard this post as its the utterings of an middle age man.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, people are writing the GFS off as ECM Op doesn't follow - the NH pattern still has a great chance of producing some v cold weather for us - we've been in much worse situations over the last 3 years that's for sure. A few tweaks and the cold floodgates could well open, and with this set up a prolonged event 

If gfs 6z goes with its evolution(18z/ooz)

I'll be inclined to fall that way-colder/notable.

Its v-complex atm.

And its all about micro dynamics..

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Look artic lining up 6z

[weirpig]

mmm 6z not looking as good  high not as robust.  shortwaves making more inroads  we shall see

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

mmm 6z not looking as good  high not as robust.  shortwaves making more inroads  we shall see

Yeah the change starts about 72 hours.

[MR EXTREMES]

GFS 96 big difference since 0z low in the Atlantic further north.