Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[andy_leics22]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO computer says no

Here's the GFS...

Take your pick

Holy moly that is a big difference at a medium timeframe! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, andy_leics22 said:

Holy moly that is a big difference at a medium timeframe! 

Well either way, by 7am we'll either be left with a GFS vs UKMO and ECM or GFS and ECM vs UKMO situation. Neither are ideal as so many times the UKMO has proven correct when calling against a possible cold spell.

[geordiekev]

It's certainly nail biting stuff, can't believe we're having to pull all nighters so early on this year, must stock up on the proplus.

We got some of those new stupid white led lamps in the street this year,  hope to christen them soon, but think I will miss the peach hue of the old lanterns when the white stuff does fall. 

Edited November 16, 2017 by geordiekev

[Mucka]

UKMO does say no but at least GFS 00z has good consistency with the 18z Op run.

It could be consistently wrong though of course 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO does say no but at least GFS 00z has good consistency with the 18z Op run.

It could be consistently wrong though of course 

0z GFS doesn't produce a robust GH like the 18z. I suppose that's moot at this point though as even from this point we could see Scandi heights take hold

Would certainly be very cold with hard frosts and ice days likely in some locations I would imagine, given the time of year

Edited November 16, 2017 by CreweCold

[andy_leics22]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

0z GFS doesn't produce a robust GH like the 18z. I suppose that's moot at this point though as even from this point we could see Scandi heights take hold

Yeah it's definitely not as good as the 18z out to t180 but it's still not the worst chart i've seen for late November and a lot better than the UKMO 

I sincerely hope the UKMO is wrong this time. Squeaky bum time though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The block wants to have another go at gaining latitude into FI

Seen enough- cold, frosty (if not particularly snowy) from the 0z GFS

That'll do me, sir!

Edited November 16, 2017 by CreweCold

[geordiekev]

Yeah shame it's a slight downgrade from the 18z, but the theme very similar and still snow risks to the east coast I would imagine in little more than 7 days time.

[Scandinavian High.]

South east England could get some snow with this...

[northwestsnow]

Gfs is a lovely run...trouble is we all know too well its going to be wrong.I will gladly eat humble pie if im wrong...in fact id be ecstatic to eat humble pie..:)

Ukmo is really really bad.( for coldies obv)

Edited November 16, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Mucka]

Still not really backed by its ensembles with around 20% backing GFS Op.

[Ali1977]

Doom and gloom 24 hours ago and now it's all go with positivity again, can't beat a good GFS rollercoaster this time of year. I think the positioning and behaviour of the mid European low at day 7 may well be key to how this pans out, the ECM has this staying to our North as per earlier GFS runs which keeps the E flow to our North.  Let's see if the ECM follows - a pretty long chilly/cold spell if the GFS was to be correct, big if obviously!! 

Edited November 16, 2017 by Ali1977

[swfc]

Ecm says no thankyou im afraid!!!.wow what a performance this is

[booferking]

Ecm meets halfway between GFS&UKMO.

[tight isobar]

Ecm 00z still has legs.

Just goes on an' alternative route.

And evolves a tad tougher in format.

Edited November 16, 2017 by tight isobar

[That ECM]

23 minutes ago, swfc said:

Ecm says no thankyou im afraid!!!.wow what a performance this is

You might be a little swift with your conclusion there!! looking very interesting to me. It doesnt quite get there but a step towards gfs. Still much to play for.  

Edited November 16, 2017 by That ECM

[knocker]

Today a band of  rain currently affecting Scotland (quite windy as well) thanks to a cold front associated with the depression to the north will gadusally track south east during the day and weaken. Thus it will generally just take cloud with, perhaps the odd spot of drizzle.This will clear the south coast late on and high pressure will edge in from the west giving a quiet perhaps frosty star to many places tomorrow. The exception being Scotland which is still in  the circulation of the low pressure so a fair westerly wind and more showery rain as another front edges in from the west.

So to this morning's gfs and the European HP having a few twitches.

Over the weekend the HP ridges north initiating the movement of the main low to the north south east into southern Norway and points east and thus veering the surface wind to northerly, perhaps some wintry showers in Scotland before the becoming much slacker generally.

But it's out west in mid Atlantic where the action is with a complex upper trough interacting with the high pressure ridging north. This translates to a complex area of surface lows and fronts but the important development would appear to be a low between Greenland and Iceland and the associated front that has tracked NNE to be impacting Scotland by 12 Monday which could produce some snow on the leading edge. Over the next 24 hours the low slowly fills SW of Iceland and the front weakens and makes little headway south against the strong ridge but the important development is another disturbance  has tracked around the Greenland HP that has dragged the much colder air down and by 12 Tuesday there is a marked delineation between the warm/cold air that tracks SE close to Scotland and quite a strong upper flow.

Our low SW of Iceland latches on to the flow and by 12 Wednesday is in the North Sea with the delineation line now just about over Scotland

And from here the low undergoes some pretty intense cyclogenesis as it tracks into Germany and initiates the colder plunging south over the UK whilst at the same time eventually promoting the high pressure to west. I'll just settle for 'this scenario is very unlikely to be around for long'.

 

 

Edited November 16, 2017 by knocker

[chris55]

About 5 runs on the GFS runs manage to pull the cold air south around the 23rd, so the Op is not without some clustering support, though in the minority.

london

 

[snowbunting]

Ok, the pub run wasnt alone last night whilst out on the rang dang. Looks like it finished up in the night club dancing with 0z!  In all honesty the NAO ensembles support such a development. Most going negative. 2010 anyone?indeed the ensembles for Western Isles is  remarkable within that 7day time frame with GFS ops and GEFS showing a significant downward cooling trend. Might not teach the South but I think the North eill be chilly by next weekend. 

Edited November 16, 2017 by snowbunting
Adding another chart.

[knocker]

Crunch time with the ecm is late Monday/Tuesday. It also has the low swinging south east into Scotland and the delineation between the warm and cold air is actually very close to Scotland but from this point the energy from the south west has sufficient oomph to push it NE rather than down into the North Sea  This allow the Atlantic and warmer air to get established and new systems to swing east across southern Britain midweek so very unsettled Obviously, even at this relatively short range, next week is done and dusted but I would think the ecm is much nearer the money.

[MR EXTREMES]

Absolutely stonking GFS stonking ukmo proper Greenland blocking feature southerly tracking jet lows driving southeast.

I'm going to wait till next couple of runs but ukmo and GFS seem like the cold train is still there.

We shall see

[Duane S.]

00z suite keep all options open.

Not that anything was going to be resolved this morning, nor this afternoon or tomorrow morning for that matter. 

The ECM may not be the best looking on the face of it was you can see it was touch and go with heading a different route midway through. Wouldn't be surprised to see a better set of ens than yesterday's. Clusters are the way to go in these situations, not the mean.

The GFS sticks to its guns, albeit with less WAA into Greenland through D6/7 and subsequently not quite as good an outcome as yesterday's 18z would have us believe. That'll do though.

So whilst I agree that putting all faith in the GFS and a few GEFS members vs the UKMO / ECM may sound a bit crazy but two things.... Firstly, how many times do we see the ECM over amplifying matters with mid Atlantic ridging? More than we care to remember I suspect. Secondly, with the polar heights in question, what the GFS is showing is very plausible, so whilst it may be a less likely outcome, it is at least possible and its not plucking this turn of events out of thin air. We just need the ? to roll in our favour for a change, that's all.

[Mucka]

24 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Absolutely stonking GFS stonking ukmo proper Greenland blocking feature southerly tracking jet lows driving southeast.

I'm going to wait till next couple of runs but ukmo and GFS seem like the cold train is still there.

We shall see

Sorry but UKMO is not good for coldies.

Atlantic pushing in from day 4.

 

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Sorry but UKMO is not good for coldies.

Atlantic pushing in from day 4.

 

No,,,its not good for coldies at all.In fact it just looks very wet at 144.

We are left holding a torch for the GFS op which has little support amongst its suite.

It is a shame because many aspects of the NH profile looks good for us, ultimately its going to count for very little as things stand, and we're just going to get rained on, quite a lot.(whats new).

Hate posting negative thoughts so i'll finish by saying its only November- the big freeze can wait until Mid December..

Edited November 16, 2017 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

I think it rather amusing this morning that all those of a certain persuasion who have spent endless hours vilifying the European high are rather dependent on it, if this morning's gfs is going to come to fruition, to block sufficient energy eastbound from the eastern seaboard to allow the colder air to plunge south east of Greenland.