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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

MT8_London_ens.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Whilst the op is likely to be a synoptic outlier, there has been a slight movement towards it from the 18z GEFS suite.

I agree lot more blocked and a quite few deliver all in all happy, let see what we wake up to tomorrow:friends:

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Ok,just got in from work to see you lot jump off the fence....get back on it cos if the ecm can put us in slumber from that failed eaterly at 48-72 hrs the other year then you cannot take +72 hrs out as gospel,looks at the ens and they tell you

but i do like the latest 12z and 18z from the gfs,who wouldn't,keep a level head guys and you won't through you pc/phone out the window:rofl:

night:wink:

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

Jesus Christ I need some paracetamol after reading the latest here, but what a stonker of an 18z! 

This chopping and changing within a few days of now is really crazy, just shows how hard blocking can be to forecast. 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Cold spells never come easily to the British Isles and the models usually have problems in forecasting what is not the norm. That is why I feel confident that we are now on the cusp of a prolonged spell of cold from the north east. Of particular note this evening is the back tracking of the UKMO fax charts for sunday. The trend is once again are friend.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Cold spells never come easily to the British Isles and the models usually have problems in forecasting what is not the norm. That is why I feel confident that we are now on the cusp of a prolonged spell of cold from the north east. Of particular note this evening is the back tracking of the UKMO fax charts for sunday. The trend is once again are friend.

They do not indeed. With some exceptions there's not a cold spell that transpires without this back and fourth motion and then eventually we have mutual consolidation, we're still a few days off this. Slightly interesting is that the pub run has been a horror show all week. I tend to follow the operational over GEFS in times of unusually high uncertainty, perhaps not advisable but higher res. I've had a look at UKMO fax charts and yes somewhat encouraging - Atlantic is struggling to properly break through, unlike yesterday's, with a northerly airstream just off the east coast at T+96 running down the North Sea. I'll be watching the 00z roll out 'behind the sofa' with a bottle of whiskey to dampen my nerves... :D 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I'l be surprised if the ECM follows the gfs by tomorrow morning but it would be nice if it can somehow back away from its west based NAO like some of the GFS runs have today.

The mild air is still the overwhelming favourite at this stage but how quick it gets in has stalled somehwat so it goes to show even mild set ups can be delayed as the high over us may prove to be reluctant to break down.

Ironically this weekend's weather looks almost identical to last weekends weather, bright and cold in the North East albeit probably less shower activitiy and  dull and grey in the South West.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'l be surprised if the ECM follows the gfs by tomorrow morning but it would be nice if it can somehow back away from its west based NAO like some of the GFS runs have today.

 

Easy way to find out for folks new to model watching when they come home tomorrow evening. If ECM 'back tracks' and follows gfs 18z by 6pm tomorrow we will be on page 149 , if gfs tends towards ECM evolution we will be on page 139 by 6pm

If were on page 149 start at 131 and read it like a good book and tell the misses she is cooking.

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

OH..MY!

Well I know we can't get carried away but tonights 18z GFS is a beauty. Anyone else having deja vu from Nov 2010's cold spell? Looks similar at the moment but it's still early days of course and there will be a lot of changes before next week.

 

Still, this is only just a week away so it's coming within a reasonably reliable timeframe now. Still somewhat F.I though. Lets just enjoy this chart for next Thursday...

 

GFSOPEU18_186_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Well I've been out looking for escaped sheep and look what the GFS throws up, What a turn around. Some very choppy output lately as you would expect upon a possible pattern change.. 

viewimage-9.thumb.png.5f9dbd07054909a87f625e276a95315f.png

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

GEFS show somewhat of a flip instead of 3-4 runs in the cold its nearly 40/60. Not amazing but a small improvement. 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Before we get too carried away, I'll await the more reliable timeframe and solid agreement from all the models! 

Its usually I'm afraid to say it, the most pessimistic run is usually the most accurate and realistic. 

Great eye candy however! 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Just now, carsey said:

What time is the 00Z our?

4-5

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

All nighter anyone ? :db:

Joking aside, 18Z  GEFS are a small improvement on the 12z GEFS so hope springs etrnal- as others have said tho, its a long shot.

I will of course be up for the 00z runs as i'm working tonight, im sure coldies really are long overdue a stroke of luck or a last minute 'flip' to something favouring us.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Just now, andy_leics22 said:

Out to t99 now and it looks pretty much the same as the 18z run

GFSOPEU18_99_1.png

GFSOPEU00_99_1.png

Just back from work and wow the 18z proved the NH profile is still ripe for any outcome. On to the 00z. Steady as she goes, just wish I could skip to the back page for a sneak peek.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, carsey said:

Its looking like its going to pull it off again!

Hold your horses...

Critical point now at day 5

gfsnh-0-120.png

Need that very small low west of Iceland to do one...sharpish!

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, northwestsnow said:

LOL thats a truely shocking chart- meanwhile GFS completely different..

Time for the GFS to step up and show us it can get one of these scenarios called correctly...

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