Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Mucka]

"Holy Ice cubes! Quick, to the ensembles Robin!"

 

 

[bluearmy]

Could be one of the most sustained deeply neg AO op runs ever !!

 

seriously, those betting the 12 and 18z gfs ops against the last two ec suites are asking to be disappointed come the 00z runs ...............  unless ........... 

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Let's just say they don't diverge that much from the op. But who cares - of course the GFS 18Z will be right

5/6 days back thats exactly what happened of course, 18z went mild and everyone followed suite including the ECM the next day. So this time it should be the other way around. 

 

Edited November 15, 2017 by snowray

[Duane S.]

Whether it comes off or not (ok, probably not) THIS is why we all love coming on this forum in times of (often false) hope. For the crazy ups and downs the model runs give us through the dark winter months. It's almost as much fun as when we actually get a good dumping of the white stuff!

Like it or loathe it, we all know we'd miss the 18z pub run if the NCEP ever decided to discard it ?

[Frosty.]

Wow I can't keep up

Netweather meltdown has been successfully achieved on the Gfs 18z!..Bank!

I shall sleep well tonight and dream of magical snow 

Edited November 15, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

5/6 days back thats exactly what happened of course, 18z went mild and everyone followed suite including the ECM the next day. So this time it should be the other way around. 

I don't know what others think, but I find that if the GFS goes off on a last minute bender, it's never completely wrong, and it's often at least half right. We shall see!

[The Eagle]

We all know what cock blocking is. ECM is the synoptic equivalent.

 

Cracking GFS though. GFS is the model that throws the kind of wild parties this time of year that would see the police called in the aftermath. ECM is the one to stick with.

 

Edited November 15, 2017 by The Eagle

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I personally really don’t that the 18z is too outlandish.  Sunspots are very Q but a lot is going on with the sun......we have chances imo.....good night

 

BFTP

Edited November 15, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[damianslaw]

UKMO FAX charts always worth looking at in these situations. Latest run this evening, shows the frontal feature programmed to attack from the atlantic taking longer to make inroads, indeed its a backtrack, with rain only making it into SW England late on Sunday with most of the UK enjoying a dry fine day - going against latest BBC forecasts. On Monday it does show the front moving through, but it then looks like a stalling frontal situation out to our west, with the front forced to simply fall apart.. as pressure builds through the country.

[snowray]

Fax charts out, big difference even at T96. Here's tonights T96 and yesterdays T120 for comparison.

 

The last one is tonights T120 chart.

Lets just say that if the fax charts can shift that much at T96, then I think that tonights T120 chart can also be wrong.

Edited November 15, 2017 by snowray

[ICE COLD]

Another thing that is still not showing ,  is the PV ramping up even at the end off the runs . More good signs  . 

GFS 18z for 1st December.

[bobbydog]

well the 18z gives snow to the whole country during its run. except sussex.

for sale-

1 hat

1 scarf

1 carrot

several lumps of coal

excellent condition, never used....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Get in from work and see that 18z GFS run. Lord almighty. 

Compared to the ECM it's night and day. We all need to pray with every bit of energy we have, for the GFS 18z.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Get in from work and see that 18z GFS run. Lord almighty. 

Compared to the ECM it's night and day. We all need to pray with every bit of energy we have, for the GFS 18z.

Amen

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Get in from work and see that 18z GFS run. Lord almighty. 

Compared to the ECM it's night and day. We all need to pray with every bit of energy we have, for the GFS 18z.

maybe ask on facebook as that place is full of pray for this pray for that rubbish... you never know you might get enough amens that the weather might just do it for once.

[Man With Beard]

Oh alright then. D8. I suppose cluster 3 could go somewhere

[Timmytour]

Only one way it can go from here....

GFS 0z    only slight backtrack

Ecm 0z    major shift to Gfs

GFS 6z    looks like ECM 12z

Repeat ad nauseum....

[Midlands Ice Age]

!

Edited November 15, 2017 by Midlands Ice Age
Post Deleted

[weirpig]

Mix bag of ensembles. None the wiser  control gives a dartboard low . No idea 

[Midlands Ice Age]

26 minutes ago, snowray said:

Fax charts out, big difference even at T96. Here's tonights T96 and yesterdays T120 for comparison.

 

The last one is tonights T120 chart.

Lets just say that if the fax charts can shift that much at T96, then I think that tonights T120 chart can also be wrong.

Well it has gone over half way to meet the GFS.

It has lost the trough over the UK from the SW.

It is showing the start of ridging up to to the NW.

It shows a shortwave over Iceland ready to dive SE.

Its a good enough start....

 MIA  

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Mix bag of ensembles. None the wiser  control gives a dartboard low . No idea 

Whilst the op is likely to be a synoptic outlier, there has been a slight movement towards it from the 18z GEFS suite.

 

EDIT : my view has slightly changed from 48 hours ago, I wouldn't say I had a clue what synoptic charts /weather on the ground would be like, I would have said that I knew what type it definitely wouldn't be, and that was cold and blocked, while I haven't backtracked completely, I now concede there is still a small chance.

Edited November 15, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Tracy Flick]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Whilst the op is likely to be a synoptic outlier, there has been a slight movement towards it from the 18z GEFS suite.

Yes, particularly away from the south coast this is a solid ensemble for proper wintry weather.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whilst the op is likely to be a synoptic outlier, there has been a slight movement towards it from the 18z GEFS suite.

There as  quite a few go the same route. Short ensembles 

[cheshire snow]

32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I don't know what others think, but I find that if the GFS goes off on a last minute bender, it's never completely wrong, and it's often at least half right. We shall see!

I remember the 06z GFS going off on a bender last Winter,this place was In meltdown.

Then the wheels fell off,so to speak.

I think the saying goes more runs needed

C.S 

[Derecho]

Looking through the ensembles I'd say there are 3/4 runs which bring in cold arctic air at around T192 just as profoundly as the op, not without support the op but very much the coldest of the lot.

No surprises there but I'd say only about 7 runs have the Atlantic breaking through by Monday so more upgrades on this latest ensemble batch.

FI is T+96 at the moment.

Edited November 15, 2017 by Quicksilver1989