Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Tracy Flick]

 

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

I see the GFS 18Z has created some excitement. Out of respect to the dreamers, I shall not post the EC clusters, as to allow the dreams to carry on a little longer.

Ah!  But that data is 6 hours older! 

Could well have thundersnow coming off a still-warm North Sea pushing well inland from these sort of synoptics.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I see the GFS 18Z has created some excitement. Out of respect to the dreamers, I shall not post the EC clusters, as to allow the dreams to carry on a little longer.

Are they absolutely dyer?

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I see the GFS 18Z has created some excitement. Out of respect to the dreamers, I shall not post the EC clusters, as to allow the dreams to carry on a little longer.

Nah! Just post the 72hr fax chart instead which looks even better than the 68hr 18z chart ☺

[weirpig]

Edit

Edited November 15, 2017 by weirpig
T

[Alpine glow]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I see the GFS 18Z has created some excitement. Out of respect to the dreamers, I shall not post the EC clusters, as to allow the dreams to carry on a little longer.

Whoaaaa there!

[Had Worse]

Are we all ready with our toys, maybe they wont be needed.

Wouldn't it just be typical for the untrusted model (GFS) to go and nail this chapter and verse.

I'm outa words to describe this 18z...

[lorenzo]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I see the GFS 18Z has created some excitement. Out of respect to the dreamers, I shall not post the EC clusters, as to allow the dreams to carry on a little longer.

Remember that time when EC was 44/52 for an easterly at 120 and it vanished... it is by no means perfect..

Gfs 18z has a nose for cold/vodka/crystal meth (delete as applicable).

[damianslaw]

Important to focus on the near-term prospects, i.e. what the models are showing with regard to this weekend's high pressure/ridge, there are signals it will take a more north-south elongation, this would enable warm air advection to take place to our west, and crucially cold air advection to our east, and with the main forcing coming from the trough to our NE, the atlantic low pressure system will have no-where to go but head south and be squeezed out. If heights take on a more NE-SW alignment this will allow the atlantic to have a greater chance of building in.

Very very fine margins.

[SLEETY]

Very severe blizzards in Norway if the gfs is correct and snow here too.

[Mapantz]

The 18Z certainly threw one up there.. It looked as though it would evolve in to an Easterly, but it's gone in reverse, backing in to a Northerly then in to a North-Westerly. Obviously the flow stays cold, but it does look weird! I thought I was moving back through the charts rather than forward.

[weirpig]

Loosing cold uppers. Bin it 

[Met4Cast]

The 12z op was a cold outlier, I suspect this one will be too.

BUT. The ops are run at a higher resolution than the ensembles so often do pick out patterns and then we see the ENS coming into line later.

BUT x 2. There is almost zero support for the GFS 18z outcome within the EC EPS or it's own ensemble suit (based on previous ensembles, this could change on the 18z ensembles suite and I'll be surprised if some don't follow it)

Conclusion: I expect the GFS will probably backtrack come tomorrow morning, but we can't completely discredit the 18z until then.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Finally.......GFS 18z 15/11 is the model that gets it.   Hoorah!

BFTP

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Are we all ready with our toys, maybe they wont be needed.

Wouldn't it just be typical for the untrusted model (GFS) to go and nail this chapter and verse.

I'm outa words to describe this 18z...

Mine will be needed when 00Z trends towards ECM tomorrow

[Nick F]

Convective snow showers off the North Sea with thunder snow later next week anyone? Let the 18z GFS tease you ...

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Nah! Just post the 72hr fax chart instead which looks even better than the 68hr 18z chart ☺

Yes its a lot better, I'm waiting for the T120 fax chart to come out, running a bit late this evening, I wonder why that is?

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to say that 18z run is an example of how we good get absolutely pasted with achievable uppers.

[Scandinavian High.]

Let’s just keep feet on ground we all no we have been here before  anyway a lovely chart there .. I will be eating my breakfast behind the sofa in the morning.

[Ice Day]

Go on, have another look...you know you want to!

An absolute corker of a pub run, almost worthy of a 'that GFS' tag.  Probably about 5-10% chance of verifying but it's lovely to go to bed on.  *IF* this comes to fruition, any areas with some elevation will be digging themselves out for a while but most places would probably get a decent covering.  Lets hope for an ECM turnaround in the morning.

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Don’t tell me it was a warm outlier 

Let's just say they don't diverge that much from the op. But who cares - of course the GFS 18Z will be right

[Snowy L]

The way we get there though, a lot needs to go right. If the 18z is to be believed, the high pressure over the UK needs to hang on until low pressure reaches Spain, then magically disintergrate as soon as that happens. While this is happening a shortwave needs to develop to our North then rapidly intensify as it travels south down the North Sea. So yea just a word of caution that this is a very unlikely scenario.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes its a lot better, I'm waiting for the T120 fax chart to come out, running a bit late this evening, I wonder why that is?

Always runs late at crucial times. Meto loves to torture. Don't forget the 96hr chart is still to update too.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Wooooo that 18z looks a stonker , would be a early Christmas present if verifys ,but caution follows excitement,we shall see ?

[booferking]

Well that was fun it was like happy hour   lets see if we can get more support from the ens.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Well that was fun it was like happy hour   lets see if we can get more support from the ens.

I’m not even going to ruin it by looking, I’m off to Dream snow drifts 

gfs