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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

I think the new trend the GFS is picking up is for High pressure over the UK refusing to go south so quickly, meaning lows queing up in the Atlantic are forced to go south when they come up against the wall. This has happened on the 12z and now the 18z. Need this to start happening on the UKMO and ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

On one hand great to see this GFS run develop some festive spirit but it’s really up against the ECM and tomorrow mornings viewing will be from behind the sofa! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Ohhh my, if only....:rolleyes:

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

You are so right @Steve Murr

2010 reload anyone

allthough all models were running with that one

still time!!

good spot

Edited by snowbob
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

After several days of poor 18z runs, tonight’s is polar opposite with a cold NEly, only the GFS could make it up!

Perhaps too early to throw the towel in on this particular high latitude blocking episode, but equally lots of caution required before getting hopes up for such an evolution, as a lot of complicated jigsaw pieces to fit to get to such a position as the 18z.

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Ah  happy days winter is upon us , let’s hope the trend from the last couple of gfs runs continues and the ecm and ukmo follows in the morning and then of course actually verify , exciting time because ? , well it’s winter of course .:yahoo:

 

1608E602-58EA-45B8-9613-18B200D61CA4.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

On one hand great to see this GFS run develop some festive spirit but it’s really up against the ECM and tomorrow mornings viewing will be from behind the sofa! 

 

GFS has shut the front door, side door and back door on those heights creeping into Canada.. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Going for the wrap around greeny-to scandi.. 

Phenomenal run 18z...

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Screenshot_2017-11-15-22-25-42.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Spectacular 18z run......2010 written all over it!!

The steep curvature developing in the isobars makes me think it has more of a touch of the Dec 1990 about it.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Ice days anyone?

gfs-9-210.png?18

Fingers crossed 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

And to top it all off another high building in the west Atlantic at 216 :rofl:

 

A high pressure jet stream needs to become a thing.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

If the outcome in  7 plus days time is anything like what we are seeing tonight on the pub run remember the lowly GFS 18z delivered it to us first.

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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire

? I’m banking the 18z! Delicious snowfest.

The GFS really is a massive tease. There’s only one way to go from this run....

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

And to top it all off another high building in the west Atlantic at 216 :rofl:

Looks a bit west based :ninja:

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

contingancey planners at the ready!!!

18z gfs hard to think of better synoptics.

 

23434921_536021763440977_4485299928460983695_n.jpgtongue in check of course atm.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

18z now well into la la land so not to be taken seriously late on but it beautifully demonstrates why when we have both a deeply negative AO and a negative NAO, a cold outcome for the UK should be ruled out at ones peril. Tipping points are always in play in these scenarios and here we have one. As soon as we had that strong shot of WAA into Greenland, there's was only one outcome for us, cold. The degree to which (very much) undecided.

So to those joyously heralding in the collapse of the cold spell before it had even started, you may well get your wish of course but if I were you I'd hold my horses for a while yet, the large lady is starting to lose her voice tonight...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, comet said:

If the outcome in  7 plus days time is anything like what we are seeing tonight on the pub run remember the lowly GFS 18z delivered it to us first.

If the outcome in 7 days time is anything what we are seeing tonight, PAUL had better do some work on the NW servers because this place will properly explode, its been down a couple of times with 100 people viewing recently try it with 2-3 thousand on line at once!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I see the GFS 18Z has created some excitement. Out of respect to the dreamers, I shall not post the EC clusters, as to allow the dreams to carry on a little longer.

Don’t tell me it was a warm outlier :acute:

Edited by Mark wheeler
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