Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[snowbob]

45 minutes ago, draztik said:

Indeed! If the model isnt showing what you want, discard! Tips for winter, folks. 

Not the point frosty was making at all.

The models are doing the usual flip flop they do at this point.

Untill ecm is consistent with a direction of either blow torch or cold, then you can disregard  an outlier.

Edited November 15, 2017 by snowbob

[weirpig]

Sticking to it's guns somewhat 

[ICE COLD]

GFS 18z 144hr Hmmm

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

18z looking good.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Sticking to it's guns somewhat 

You beat me to it

[tight isobar]

While we sit in a benign frost mist laden' atmos...

Romania right into greece take the shield..

And a whole lot of snowfal too!!!

[nick sussex]

Not a bad GFS 18 hrs run so far and quite a bit different from the ECM horror show.

Heights building strongly towards sw Greenland and shortwave energy aligned more favourably  to the west . 

[snowray]

18z certainly looking pretty good, come on my son!

[SMU]

Evening-

once again the 18z exhibits a sharper profile of colder air heading south over the UK in the 72 timeline- initially the atlantic was progged to breakthrough - however across the last 18-24 hours that process has slowed- with cold air clinging on in the east-

At the same time the allignment of the flow over Northern Europe has increasing become North Easterly bringing in colder & colder air- SW through Scandi

Finally the GFS post 120 is showing signs that the atlantic doesnt get through & is developing a strong pulse of WAA across western Greenland- similar to 2010... the upward flow is almost identical !

keep an eye on it!!!

 

 

[Stozzy]

Colder air coming in quicker on this run . Doesn't mean it's right mind 

[Duane S.]

Stronger Atlantic ridging into GL by +150. Interesting indeed. We are not far away from a stellar north Easterly appearing later on

[Met4Cast]

When the GFS goes so far against it's own climatology zonal bias, I pay attention, especially when the other models are going more or less full zonal train.

In these situations, the GFS is either spectacularly correct and we see the other models take a sharp backtrack, or the GFS climbs down spectacularly. There's never a "halfway house".

I don't know whats going on with the weather models these last few days but they've been completely and utterly useless.

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Stozzy said:

Colder air coming in quicker on this run . Doesn't mean it's right mind 

18z has been the form horse though this last week, in fact this could be better than the 12z.

What are the odds that ECM come on board with this new trend tomorrow?

[ICE COLD]

GFS 18z 168hrs looking very good ? 

[Eskimo]

Here she comes! 

Edited November 15, 2017 by PerfectStorm

[bluearmy]

Euro heights going awol on the 18z allowing plenty of split flow to head into Europe 

[tight isobar]

Gfs 18z..

Much nicer profile of advection.

And would be no doubt A-class text book...

 

if it wasnt for these numptys!!!

Edited November 15, 2017 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

Burial job about to occur at 180.

[Mucka]

p13 all the way!

 

Only this is the Op

Can we get ECM on board tomorrow?

Probably not 

[blizzard81]

The 72hr fax chart for Saturday is a big improvement on the previous 84hr chart for the same day and a massive improvement on yesterday's 96hr chart for the same day.

[Stozzy]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

18z has been the form horse though this last week, in fact this could be better than the 12z.

What are the odds that ECM come on board with this new trend tomorrow?

 

[snowray]

Eye candy time! Cold in the east wins out, lovely scandi high, and snow moving south.

[Snowy L]

ECM and GFS now more divided than ever with time running out.

[karlos1983]

Oh my days 

Picasso would struggle to draw a nicer picture with his pencils

plenty of cold to keep tapping into as well 

[tight isobar]

Floodgates begin to open...