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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
1 hour ago, Mucka said:

This is really knife edge stuff.

One or two more GFS ensembles eject the shortwave SE (oops posted SW) and push the Atlantic low South keeping us on the cold side of the flow than have in recent runs.

P2 an example of something we want to see more of but there are a whole range of possibilities still on offer, some bring southerlies, some bring wet and windy, some dry and cool, some cold and all of it underpinned by how energy is split in the Atlantic against the block in just 3/4 days time so we really should know by end of tomorrow.

gensnh-2-1-120.png

But 13 is the lucky number as p13 has been rock solid today with this outcome

gensnh-13-1-180.png

 

That's the belting North to North Easterly I was hoping for earlier on. P13 yes please!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Looks like nicks words earlier were very prudent. Ecm not looking like following 12 gfs

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Do I spot some disruption to the trough east of Greenland at T144? Could heights get in between?

In a word no!!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Putting aside blocking antics nw/ne..

Ecm very much inline with gfs..12z.

 Hp= cold/cool night frost /mist...

144...

The rest of the run is of big importance on a wider scale..

ECF1-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Ecm says no. Onward to the 18z  tiring this model watching 

Going to have model fatigue before winter has even arrived at this rate :lazy:

that low really blows up from 144-168, looks odd 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Going to have model fatigue before winter has even arrived at this rate :lazy:

that low really blows up from 144-168, looks odd 

Try looking at ensembles more and not living det run to det run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Now being a fashion guru I'm in a pickle  next week I will either be wearing a rather dashing sheepskin coat. Or flip flops  what to do. Ecm and gfs at different ends of the spectrum . Do I back against the king ecm

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, jvenge said:

Try looking at ensembles more and not living det run to det run. 

I’m good thanks, at 34 years old I’ve managed to master how I like to live my life. :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Well we see the flip-flop weathermodels :D

Get them out if ECM right, as SS posts!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Going to have model fatigue before winter has even arrived at this rate :lazy:

that low really blows up from 144-168, looks odd 

Good call on the 144-168 hrs.spotted myself and imo looks very wrong how it explodes in such a short time!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Goodness me EC 12z is awful, i did mention ukmo this evening and i suspect it would have gone the same way.

EC shows moist south westerlies taking over next week- and probably temps into the teens? :(

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

strange looking charts tonight from ECM its at odds with all the other models even the so called junk models the change from 144h to 168h is bizzare to my eyes

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Goodness me EC 12z is awful, i did mention ukmo this evening and i suspect it would have gone the same way.

EC shows moist south westerlies taking over next week- and probably temps into the teens? :(

3

Mid teens for some is entirely possible if ECM is right

35365346.thumb.png.7a92d07b93acf5b6b579437957dae7ae.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

In a nutshell the ECM delivers one phasing tragedy after another.

That bulge you see sw of Iceland at T120rs is waiting to  engage energy from the ne You either want no initial shortwave ejection and for that to become completely absorbed in the next upstream low or for it to eject early like the UKMO which gives you a chance .

The ECM does neither and leaves the worst halfway house. The GFS although delivering some interest eventually is really not to be trusted because it’s evolution is so fragile with shortwave energy flying all over the place .

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM does the dirty!:ninja:

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

So as it stands, quite incredibly we are still none the wiser of a clear route forward. Unbelievable Jeff 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Time for some reverse psychology..really great Ecm 12z with beautiful balmy sw'ly  zephyrs  bathing the UK in unseasonable  mild conditions..hope it verifies!!!!:whistling::crazy:

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

 

192_mslp850.png

192_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850.png

216_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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