Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[tight isobar]

Tbf after 144..

Its a case of throwing darts in the dark..

Crossboard...

Lets see what ec-says 120/240 hrs.

On its 12z.

 

6z

12z

Edited November 15, 2017 by tight isobar

[Day 10]

Maybe for once the pattern starts too far west, then corrects east as we get closer to T zero and we end up with a belting North Easterly!! Nice thought anyway.

[snowray]

Well I can't believe it, here comes the easterly, scandi high....

The forum will be in melt down if ECM come on board later on.

[wimblettben]

Seriously I don't think I've ever known the models to change so much as this before!

Even the chopping and changing that occurs during the summer months is nothing compared to this.

In all honesty though I wan't the charts that are showing the atlantic to fire up next week be correct as this Autumn has been rather boring for Atlantic storms so far and its becoming rather dull.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure showing a few random Outliers is of any use.....

Perhaps i should post them more often..it's certainly helped the 12z runs so far

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Seriously I don't think I've ever known the models to change so much as this before!

Even the chopping and changing that occurs during the summer months is nothing compared to this.

In all honesty though I wan't the charts that are showing the atlantic to fire up next week be correct as this Autumn has been rather boring for Atlantic storms so far and its becoming rather dull.

I wonder what new signal they have all picked up, I mean UKMO, GFS and GEM have all shifted in the same direction at once. Very strange.

[Summer Sun]

A much colder look again from GFS probs best to wait for the ens a bit later this afternoon to see how it sits certainly not game over yet by any means the key time looks later next week

[booferking]

This will keep quite a few happy in here if this came off,

Edited November 15, 2017 by booferking

[feb1991blizzard]

Heavy snow band straddling the spine of the country.

[joggs]

Well,first post for me at(nearly)the start of silly season.

I really think the models are struggling big-time with the AO  tanking and the PV in tatters(for now).

As long as meto don't mention mild mushfest in their med/long forecast,I'm happy.

A lot of good pointers and signals for the season ahead with ups and big downs but we're due a decent one

[Derecho]

Maybe the signal is for the subtropical storm SW of the Azores, which had a 50% chance to develop yesterday, now dropped to 5%. Less energy out west helping build a more stable block?

[Walsall Wood Snow]

20 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Oh yeah, we all know tomorrow or the day after there's every chance more building blocks start popping up on some model and cheering everybody up again. Always happens whether it comes to anything or not.

Well there you go.

[snowray]

Not quite an easterly, but this is even better, nationwide snowfall, temps of around 0c.

Edited November 15, 2017 by snowray

[khodds]

As I said this morning, I saw this coming! It’s the way it’s always been with the models. That’s why it’s a roller coaster ride each winter! The Meto are going for blocking, they are mentioning it in the media (heard mention on the radio this week). There will be some ups and downs still to be had  but it’s looking far more positive this year. Eyes down for the ECM! 

[Rosswsm]

Been my firm believe it'll turn colder, models struggling to model the energy out West plus the negative AO, much better GFS this evening though, ECM should follow suit with a colder theme. 

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, khodds said:

As I said this morning, I saw this coming! It’s the way it’s always been with the models. That’s why it’s a roller coaster ride each winter! The Meto are going for blocking, they are mentioning it in the media (heard mention on the radio this week). There will be some ups and downs still to be had  but it’s looking far more positive this year. Eyes down for the ECM! 

Looking better.

But again anything after 144hrs is wide open.

With an array of options.

Ecm 12z 'should' cast a little light.

We are at that juncture/point.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not a surprise for more changes.  Probably room for more too.  Interesting ECM tonight, with positive moves from GFS and UKMO I would like to and hope to see an upgraded ECM.  Strong solar burst hit 14/15 Nov, I wonder if it will perturb the jet stream south and the models will reflect this as we move forward.  Major flare/solar wind burst anticipated to hit Earth 24th onwards.  If nothing else should some strong lovely northern lights 

 

BFTP

[Derecho]

Better support in the GFS ensembles for the Atlantic energy to be held further back at T96, encouraging signs . Low pressure to the west of Iceland on many runs still at this time, rather then bringing SW winds to the UK.

Instead we are stuck under an anticyclone on Sunday in many ensemble members, allowing more cold to build further east hopefully...

Quite a lot of runs slowly bring the mild air next week but so much uncertainty at the moment. P13 is shaping up to be an epic run though 

Edited November 15, 2017 by Quicksilver1989
More detail

[jules216]

Hi guys, sorry for maybe off topic question, but I think it might be model related as we stand, is it true that models have lack of satellite data over Greenland?

I saw it written here before when models had no clue during blocking period,could that contribute to the fact of huge swings and forecast uncertainty even at 5 days range?

If so, is there any link to official sources that could confirm this?

 

thanks 

[Radiating Dendrite]

I don't think much has really changed. The 12z is just showing a colder run in fantasy land; it has no more chance of occurring than the mild weather being shown on the 6z.

Personally think we will see a West based NAO and average conditions in the UK with fronts crossing from the SW.

[snowray]

GEM is on board. Could we get full agreement now with the ECM, or will it be the party pooper I wonder?

[northwestsnow]

GFS12z is much better but im afraid from what i can see ukmo is poor at 144 for cold the heights across Greenland have already become detached.

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

Hi guys, sorry for maybe off topic question, but I think it might be model related as we stand, is it true that models have lack of satellite data over Greenland?

I saw it written here before when models had no clue during blocking period,could that contribute to the fact of huge swings and forecast uncertainty even at 5 days range?

If so, is there any link to official sources that could confirm this?

 

thanks 

This lack of data line is trotted out every silly season. 

If this is the case would we not see inaccuracy in whatever the models were forecasting in the area and downstream from there?

[Luke Best]

4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I don't think much has really changed. The 12z is just showing a colder run in fantasy land; it has no more chance of occurring than the mild weather being shown on the 6z.

Personally think we will see a West based NAO and average conditions in the UK with fronts crossing from the SW.

Boo hoo, you sound of reason you!

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Lol just for fun.. ens number 13 anyone 

:).