Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Iceaxecrampon]

06z for Monday 20th November

Pick of the bunch - although Alba doing well for the Cairngorms as per.

Stubborn Euro High wont budge with the Scandi Low spinning like a top near Iceland.

Anymore stagnant output for us coldies and  plenty of this will be flying about.

 

....early days

 

Edited November 15, 2017 by Iceaxecrampon

[nick sussex]

Still too much uncertainty in the models to throw the towel in for some colder weather.

The situation is finely balanced because the UK is at the weak end of the blocking , this often means low pressure will want to head ne from the sw at that point.

And if you’re on the wrong side of that you’re in the milder air which is what we’ve seen shown in quite a few outputs 

At present it looks like it’s a close but no cigar outcome but I think we’d need a few more runs to see whether the block might get edged further east .

Upstream we want to see the high boxed in and not allowed to seep heights into Canada , that way we see more forcing on the pattern in the Atlantic .

 

Edited November 15, 2017 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

Just catching up..the back end of the Ecm 00z op in particular looks good for coldies with a blast of arctic sourced air with 520 / 522 dam thicknesses bringing wintry showers with some snow ( especially on hills) and widespread night frosts / icy patches! The longer term signal still indicates plenty of below average / cold temps with frost and fog and also hints at short-lived milder interludes of atlantic weather which to me would include some wintry ppn at times as fronts bump into cold air across the uk..not bad considering its still autumn.

Edited November 15, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

A few late November goodies from the GEFS 6z which show a wintry end to autumn and a wintry start to winter..just for fun at this range but at least I'm trying to do my bit to keep spirits up for those hoping for cold / frost / snow!

[frosty ground]

24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A few late November goodies from the GEFS 6z which show a wintry end to autumn and a wintry start to winter..just for fun at this range but at least I'm trying to do my bit to keep spirits up for those hoping for cold / frost / snow!

 

Not sure showing a few random Outliers is of any use.....

[Frosty.]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Not sure showing a few random Outliers is of any use.....

I said it was just for fun plus it's relevant as its what's shown on the GEFS..no matter how unlikely. In any case, the extended outlook doesn't indicate a mild mush fest, there is some interest for coldies as we approach winter.

[winterof79]

4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I suspect some are missing the significance of the deeply neg AO upcoming 

the amplification introduced into the NH pattern and subsequent vortex disruption provides for further opportunities to bleed cold into the mid latitudes thereafter. Whilst this particular negative phase may not bring any snowy wintry conditions to nw Europe,  it could well leave us with a mid lat high which could lead to a greeny or Scandi ridge a week or two down the line. there is currently no sign of the vortex returning to Greenland on the extended two week ens suites. N American upper temp profile is not predicted to be cold which would fire up the jet. Upper strat zonal flow whilst on the strong side is not descending. there is nothing to be downbeat about as we approach winter proper.

Nice chin up post Blue.

The last time the NAO tanked was middle of September 

Edited November 15, 2017 by winterof79

[swfc]

Slightly more amplified in the atlantic on the gfs 12z at 114 hours .not sure if it will have any effect. Not sure if its of any interest? Probably just a wasted post

Infact il get my coat!!!!!

 

Edited November 15, 2017 by swfc

[Tom Jarvis]

May need to put the fat lady back in the box as there is allot better amplification on this run and it looks like the low will undercut. 

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Slightly more amplified in the atlantic on the gfs 12z.not sure if it will have any effect. Not sure if its of any interest? Probably just a wasted post

Infact il get my coat!!!!!

 

Lol  To be fair it is   also the shortwave in the Atlantic is more south  edit big difference at 144

Edited November 15, 2017 by weirpig

[mulzy]

UKMO close to a very good chart at day 5

[tight isobar]

A case of slightly better ukmo/gfs 12z

Better trajectory-atlantic shortwaving-and a tad better aligned' heights both greenland/iberia..

But certainly not screaming much atm!.. 

Cold hp looks the leading hand!

#fog#frost

Edited November 15, 2017 by tight isobar

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

UKMO close to a very good chart at day 5

How do we lower pressure over Spain though from there, the low pressure mid Atlantic would just pump up the Euro heights and leave us on the wrong side of the cold air.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

UKMO close to a very good chart at day 5

Is that a couple of smurfs appearing on Celebrity Come Prancing!

[Tom Jarvis]

This is why model watching can be so fickle. Yesterday it was doom and gloom but now the trend is our friend where the models are finally getting a better grasp of where the shortwaves are going and how strong the blocking high is. FI is curently at about t96 until the models can get a grasp of where the energy is going. Remember the trend is our friend now!!!!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

UKMO close to a very good chart at day 5

That low in the mid Atlantic is pumping all that warm air up toward Greenland in turn helping the heights almost join up completely shutting the Atlantic out, if that happens then it will be a continental dominated weather pattern with northeasterly winds,  yes almost a very good chart, very interesting none the less.

[weirpig]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Is that a couple of smurfs appearing on Celebrity Come Prancing!

Dear me  Pete  id shudder to think what would be unleashed if you did the ink blot test!

[tight isobar]

Just to illustrate how close this one is...

A real plunge into euro-south-east.

-8 hpa mins 850s into a large swath.

Making the atlantic ridge a pain...not our friend!!!.

Major placement issues for uk AGAIN.

Edited November 15, 2017 by tight isobar

[weirpig]

Incoming  lol  just for fun  models all over the shop

[snowray]

Here we go again, all back on board the old models roller coaster ride!

 

Spot the difference.

Edited November 15, 2017 by snowray

[booferking]

Meanwhile GFS is going for a plunge from the North 180hr.. Its never over till its over

Edited November 15, 2017 by booferking

[Jonan92]

This is much better

[cheshire snow]

Here comes the Northerly again for the Following Weekend,What is it about Weekends and cooler Weather?

C.S

[mulzy]

The GEM has also flipped to a cooler scenario. It's all about the how a series of shortwaves behave.  For once they may be our friends...

Edited November 15, 2017 by mulzy

[weirpig]

For me  whether these charts verify or not.  The silly season has started.  What a wonderful chart.