Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Summer Sun]

Just now, frosty ground said:

What are the ones further North Showring?

I can't compare them as I don't have older charts available but Edinburgh fails to drop below 0 from around the 20th

Inverness struggles as well maybe reaching -1 at best after the 20th

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I can't compare them as I don't have older charts available but Edinburgh fails to drop below 0 from around the 20th

Inverness struggles as well maybe reaching -1 at best after the 20th

Little misleading that ss... The operational member doesn't drop below 0 & -1 respectively, many of the other members do and many of the members also do not.

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Little misleading that ss... The operational member doesn't drop below 0 & -1 respectively, many of the other members do and many of the members also do not.

Aye was basing it on the mean as per the post frosty ground quoted me in

Edited November 15, 2017 by Summer Sun

[mb018538]

Looks like a quick rebound to something more typical for November..



AO forecast to sharply rebound too. The first red herring of the year - a week ago we had all sorts of crazy northern block charts appearing. Now as we get closer to the time, it appears this will be swiftly gobbled up, and revert us back to type - vortex back over the pole, unsettled for us.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Aye was basing it on the mean as per the post frosty ground quoted me in

just realised, sorry my bad 

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts are going through what one might call a changeable phase and are no use for forecast guidance. I'll be back when they are showing consistency over about 3 days with each other and themselves!

[Paul_1978]

29 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like a quick rebound to something more typical for November..



AO forecast to sharply rebound too. The first red herring of the year - a week ago we had all sorts of crazy northern block charts appearing. Now as we get closer to the time, it appears this will be swiftly gobbled up, and revert us back to type - vortex back over the pole, unsettled for us.

That's an old chart - there will be a new one out shortly. Nevertheless, there is only one rogue run going positive - the rest are negative.

[Stozzy]

Some very cold air too our north and east . It would only take a slight adjustment and were In the game .

[Snowy L]

Definitely a better attempt by the Atlantic lows to push into that Euro High but still not getting there and inevitably being forced towards the UK. That Euro High has killed the last 4 winters and it is killing this one.

[swfc]

Such big changes around the 120 hours mark between gfs 0z and 6z that any forecast imo is on a very dodgy wicket

Totally agree with John's post regarding seeing the way forward ie forecasting. Let the weather do its dance im afraid and see where it finishes

[booferking]

Just now, Snowy L said:

Definitely a better attempt by the Atlantic lows to push into that Euro High but still not getting there and inevitably being forced towards the UK. That Euro High has killed the last 4 winters and it is killing this one.

Most of the statement is correct above i agree 100 percent just one little thing i don't agree with it ain't winter yet so can't kill what not here yet.

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Most of the statement is correct above i agree 100 percent just one little thing i don't agree with it ain't winter yet so can't kill what not here yet.

yes... i think perhaps "that rather stubborn High pressure to our south has been a thorn in our side for quite long enough, I really would prefer it did one" would have been better. 

Edited November 15, 2017 by karlos1983

[Geordiesnow]

16 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Definitely a better attempt by the Atlantic lows to push into that Euro High but still not getting there and inevitably being forced towards the UK. That Euro High has killed the last 4 winters and it is killing this one.

Well hardly as we are not even in winter yet and last winter was stormy and Atlantic based so I don't think the Euro high had that much of an influence really. And all that malarkey that pressure in Euro is stronger and more stubborn these days because of climate change is laughable really, nothing at all unusual about Europe highs dominating all year down at southerly latitudes as that is the way the weather works around the globe.

Also what is not unusual is that if the models are showing a west based NAO, then the weather for us will more than likely be mild and wet with colder air never that far away but in general the cold air won't be heading in our direction. I can't see this really changing but the details will of course vary from run to run and whilst you can't ever rule out any attempts from any trigger lows, it looks unlikely.

Edited November 15, 2017 by Geordiesnow

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

14 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Definitely a better attempt by the Atlantic lows to push into that Euro High but still not getting there and inevitably being forced towards the UK. That Euro High has killed the last 4 winters and it is killing this one.

The last 3 winters have had the euro slug at some point, last winter was not the same although it did have it at times, we did get low pressure into Europe at times though.

Regarding this winter been killed by the same I'm sorry is the most ridiculous statement yet I'm afraid. It's 15th(?) November, and our first attempt at that aswel! 

[karlos1983]

Didn't know we can now get N America view for ECM on meteociel, very handy for when we need to look upstream for evolving cold patterns next winter, being as though this winter is already over 

[weirpig]

yes agree with the above posts    that blessed Euro high at the moment is a curse. Of course all could change as at the moments there is no agreement with the models from run to run.    The 6z  is well not the best  also with quite a bit of precipitation failing over most parts of the UK    no doubt will change on the 12z

[karyo]

The 6z is fantastic... for Iceland where it shows blizzards and subzero temperatures for days! This is a sharp contrast to last Oct-Nov when they were completely snowless.

Here, although the -NAO tries to become more centrally based after 200 hours, we still manage to be under a mild southwesterly thanks to the stubborn high pressure over the continent.

[bluearmy]

AO watch 00z

ec: -4.3

eps: -4

gfs: -4.1

gefs: -4.5

gens: -3.8

[Dennis]

[Polar Maritime]

A wet mid-week on the cards as systems move in off the Atlantic, With gales for the South at times.

 

Edited November 15, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Tuesday & Wednesday next week looks like some very mild air moving up to and across the UK from a long way south. Temperatures here in South Wales for example could well reach the mid teens quite widely. 

That's good news anyway for some of my mates who are doing a charity swim next Wednesday at least it won't be too cold for them when they come out of the sea

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Ec op is too cold and too troughy

the extended eps now with several runs showing w European high height anomoly. it got the low euro heights wrong - what odds it has this right!!

Indeed so. On the clusters, the op is now the best option for something colder in the short term. The others have weaker blocks near Greenland, and higher heights over Europe.

Up until this morning there have consistently been clusters that would allow something colder to reach the UK, but no more. West based -NAO looking more and more correct, and - more importantly - not enough variants left allowing for a colder detour.

[Tracy Flick]

We could be using our snow shovels to clear Saharan sand off the sidewalk before the month's out.

[bluearmy]

I suspect some are missing the significance of the deeply neg AO upcoming 

the amplification introduced into the NH pattern and subsequent vortex disruption provides for further opportunities to bleed cold into the mid latitudes thereafter. Whilst this particular negative phase may not bring any snowy wintry conditions to nw Europe,  it could well leave us with a mid lat high which could lead to a greeny or Scandi ridge a week or two down the line. there is currently no sign of the vortex returning to Greenland on the extended two week ens suites. N American upper temp profile is not predicted to be cold which would fire up the jet. Upper strat zonal flow whilst on the strong side is not descending. there is nothing to be downbeat about as we approach winter proper.

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Punxsutawney Phil said:

We could be using our snow shovels to clear Saharan sand off the sidewalk before the month's out.

I rather doubt it will make it all the way to Pennsylvania  

certainly a feeling of Groundhog day in here and in more ways than one as well I might add...

Edited November 15, 2017 by karlos1983