Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[V for Very Cold]

5 minutes ago, The PIT said:

I guess T144 is make or break point. Fingers crossed for a return to colder modelling.

it's never at T24 is it??? lol

[Paul_1978]

48 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks awful to me from a coldies POV- not a good run from 6z - a lot of wind and rain

Matt Hugo tweeting about quite a large uptick in zonal wind speeds into December.

we really are hoping GFS is sniffing the wrong progression or its batten down the hatches time, EC is much better than any of the GFS runs since last night- METO update will be more revealing but looking at GFS the notion of mainly dry and cold weather for the uk doesnt match up, whatsoever.

Yes, but for context he is quoting NASA data and merely suggesting it could be a matter of time before the strat and the trop couple. Summer Sun mentioned it here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88772-stratosphere-temperature-watch-201718/?do=findComment&comment=3649287

 

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

it's never at T24 is it??? lol

Well we have models all over place at t48 in the past. The may thing to watch for is trends though beyond T144 if they all trendingtowards cold solutions you can be fairly confident thta soemthing albeit watered down is fairly likely.

[karlos1983]

One can confidently say confidence is low at this stage 

And the GFS is a mild lovers best friend, whilst the ECM is sitting on the fence getting splinters.

[Summer Sun]

From the 19th onwards the mean on the 06z is struggling to even get below 0

 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Well, what a mess. Still all to play for although i do get that sickening feeling that the 'oh so familiar' westerlies will dart across us next week. Gfs op is awful, a few but not many decent ens- although the ens do tend to follow the op. 

 

Ecm could go either way but that's probably our best shot at cold.

 

Ukmo is okay at 144hrs and could produce something decent going through next week.

 

Gem back to it's usual zonal pattern. We should get a better idea by 12z runs tomorrow. 

:).

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

They are lovely numbers but unfortunately it doesnt look (at this juncture) like doing us much good in terms of getting the cold to our latitude Blue- 6z continuing with the theme of Atlantic lows destroying any hopes of retrogression.

Don’t shoot the messenger !  Irrefutable that the direction of travel is away from any notable wintry spell for nw Europe (can’t discount a cold and frosty spell at this time).  Whilst the nwp could change, there is currently no strong evidence to believe it will. 

The zonal strat flow does show a pull back of strongest flow higher up as we go into week 2 so I wouldn’t be looking to the strat for any reason that the final third of November may not bring the wintry nirvana some felt was on the cards. The Atlantic doesn’t play ball and the euro heights don’t drop. West based neg NAO looking likely with downstream euro upper ridging rather than troughing. It’s not over but the evidence at the moment says ‘no’. 

Back to week two modelling to see signs of next amplification and hoping that we get several suites swinging the momentum back in the meantime  !

 

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Well, what a mess. Still all to play for although i do get that sickening feeling that the 'oh so familiar' westerlies will dart across us next week. Gfs op is awful, a few but not many decent ens- although the ens do tend to follow the op. 

 

Ecm could go either way but that's probably our best shot at cold.

 

Ukmo is okay at 144hrs and could produce something decent going through next week.

 

Gem back to it's usual zonal pattern. We should get a better idea by 12z runs tomorrow. 

:).

Looks like the UKMO has dropped the NEly from its worded forecasts for next week. Its extended model now likely showing milder influences, especially further south.  However, all models continue to give a mixed message and as usual changes in the offering. All a bit of a mess. Wait for the next instalment . Changes a foot, yet again ?

C

[Frosty.]

58 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looks like the UKMO has dropped the NEly from its worded forecasts for next week. Its extended model now likely showing milder influences, especially further south.  However, all models continue to give a mixed message and as usual changes in the offering. All a bit of a mess. Wait for the next instalment . Changes a foot, yet again ?

C

It doesn't sound bad to me, short-lived milder interludes, mainly further south but overall, still enough to keep coldies  interested, we still have the Ecm op  / ens  mean  on-board, it could be wintry at times, especially further north with some snow and frosty nights..could be a lot worse and it's not even winter for another few weeks.

Edited November 14, 2017 by Frosty.

[Chesil View]

In reality unless you just want the east coast to have the snow from an easterly or northerly regime.Then milder low pressures trying to push into the cold air is quite a good way of getting snow to other parts of the UK.

[karyo]

14 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

In reality unless you just want the east coast to have the snow from an easterly or northerly regime.Then milder low pressures trying to push into the cold air is quite a good way of getting snow to other parts of the UK.

We need the cold to be established first and that's a big ask looking at the current models. 

Anyway, breakdown snow is only worthy when the breakdown is happening slowly, otherwise it lasts two minutes.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

In reality unless you just want the east coast to have the snow from an easterly or northerly regime.Then milder low pressures trying to push into the cold air is quite a good way of getting snow to other parts of the UK.

Agreed, the wishbone effect in late autumn and throughout winter is generally useless for the interior which would be dry with long sunny spells unless there are troughs swinging South in the arctic flow, I see potential for a mix of rain, sleet and snow from Atlantic systems bumping into cold air at times during the next few weeks, especially but not exclusively further n / ne which to me is interesting on the cusp of winter.

[Chesil View]

Just now, karyo said:

We need the cold to be established first and that's a big ask looking at the current models. 

Anyway, breakdown snow is only worthy when the breakdown is happening slowly, otherwise it lasts two minutes.

In truth though Karyo none of the modelling over the last few days has shown the country consistently flooded with cold enough uppers anyway. The north always looked more favoured which was what the meto updates were saying. Sadly widespread snow has never been forecast. 

However I still think there are one or two twists and turns yet. So surprises could still be on the cards.

Edited November 14, 2017 by Broadmayne blizzard

[karyo]

10 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

In truth though Karyo none of the modelling over the last few days has shown the country flooded with cold enough uppers anyway. The north always looked more favoured which was what the meto updates were saying. Sadly widespread snow has never been forecast. 

However I still think there are one or two twists and turns yet. So surprises could still be on the cards.

Yes, that's what I am saying.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

One can confidently say confidence is low at this stage 

And the GFS is a mild lovers best friend, whilst the ECM is sitting on the fence getting splinters.

From that I think we can conclude that, beyond day 4-5, uncertainty is very high.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I don't know whether this counts as a model (I'm sure this post will be deleted if the Moderators decide that it isn't) but I thought this output, from another weather forum, puts into perspective the areas where modern climatology works against cold for areas away from the usual upland and mountain suspects:

[karlos1983]

Icon is rolling out, didn’t realise it was first out the blocks.. all eyes down 

Mickey Mouse model, never did rate it 

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by karlos1983

[tight isobar]

All is not lost but the door is shutting!

Gfs6z 

Jet-profile..@240 hrs uk is in somewhat no-mans land with a southerly jet but due to altlantic waving' its preety pointless in term of looking for cold of any notability!..leaving us betwwen a somewhat split jet that offers nothing of note other than cool-interspersed with milder incursions! With wet rather than white away from perhaps scottish peaks/higlands.

 

Also via 6z gfs is again feature after feature coming through(atlantic) tightening the squeeze on any eye opening push of heights/waa north/north-west-/greenland.And only morphing of small waves into deeper depressions(no-pun intended).

Its luck of formation of waa...and spawning micro LP'S Ejecting westwards toward our shores!!!

However- its a complex/complicated mess via output at present...and a revert to some decent synoptics COULD be on the cards... 

Or the continuing evolution of what 'most' will cringe at...

But no-done deal atm...and right now all cards are firmly on the table..

Keep watching!!!!!

 

 

[booferking]

Most be reprogramming the GFS to show as its not coming out in any site that iv checked.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Most be reprogramming the GFS to show as its not coming out in any site that iv checked.

Rolling out now on meteociel 

[tight isobar]

20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

All is not lost but the door is shutting!

Gfs6z 

[email protected] hrs uk is in somewhat no-mans land with a southerly jet but due to altlantic waving' its preety pointless in term of looking for cold of any notability!..leaving us betwwen a somewhat split jet that offers nothing of note other than cool-interspersed with milder incursions! With wet rather than white away from perhaps scottish peaks/higlands.

 

Also via 6z gfs is again feature after feature coming through(atlantic) tightening the squeeze on any eye opening push of heights/waa north/north-west-/greenland.And only morphing of small waves into deeper depressions(no-pun intended).

Its luck of formation of waa...and spawning micro LP'S Ejecting westwards toward our shores!!!

However- its a complex/complicated mess via output at present...and a revert to some decent synoptics COULD be on the cards... 

Or the continuing evolution of what 'most' will cringe at...

But no-done deal atm...and right now all cards are firmly on the table..

Keep watching!!!!!

 

 

Ejecting eastward/not west.

Couldn't edit this one!?

[karlos1983]

To my untrained eye, looks an improvement in the 12z compared to 06z

06z 

12z

can the energy head se .....

Edited November 14, 2017 by karlos1983

[festivalking]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

To my untrained eye, looks a big improvement in the 12z compared to 06z

Yep a bit more amplified and that low pressure in the Atlantic is not darting north.....yet

Edited November 14, 2017 by festivalking

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

To my untrained eye, looks a big improvement in the 12z compared to 06z

Indeed - significant differences at only T+90 hours.

[karlos1983]

This is exactly what we wanted to see, there’s still time to improve on this as well!!