Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[chris55]

00z ensembles show a big spread with still a decent cluster of colder runs around 25th, the op in the milder camp.

london

 

 

[booferking]

Ecm keeps the faith for the next set of runs.

Edited November 14, 2017 by booferking

[Radiating Dendrite]

50 minutes ago, Heekster said:

Thanks Knocker, a lot of rain and temps up to 14-15 again next week ! 

Certainly not been 14-15c here this week. I wouldn't get too hysterical over the weather 7 days away. 

[snowbunting]

I am struggling to buy into the monster low in the atlantic being able to push back a Greenie High on the 0z run of the GFS. I just cant believe a weak jet would do that.  Glad it is out of the 7day range. 

 

As has been mentioned before I think the models are struggling a bit with pretty unique climatic conditions. 

Gut feeling... the ECM has found a trend. Lets hope it doesnt backtrack!

[knocker]

Although varying in detail the ecm is along the same lines as the gfs and if it is anywhere near on the money it would ensure some quite inclement conditions next week.

It also has the weekend low slipping south east on Monday thus a brief respite but as previously mentioned the Atlantic door is now ajar and the next system arrives on Tuesday bringing more rain and strong winds, The low deepens as it tracks into the north North Sea bringing severe N Gales to Scotland (possible blizzard conditions in the mountains ?)  and the position is further complicated by a waving front slipping up the Chanel. All of this is of course open to revision.

[carinthian]

Some agreement this morning between the big models at T144. However, big difference emerges at T240 between the N American Models and European. In fairness to the Canadian Model for the most part it has shown for some days  a spin and rinse cycle into Western Europe with a milder outlook, now backed by GFS over recent runs. ECM holds the trough across NE Europe with the British Isles open to colder air mass. 

C

[northwestsnow]

EC again looks more amplified this morning-GFS is another bad run -the GEFS now have a milder cluster (majority) and a colder cluster.

Nothing really resolved

[sundog]

59 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ecm keeps the faith for the next set of runs.

It kept the faith  plenty of times last winter aswell,give me a break. Its like its just carrying on with the same antics again this yr. Cant beat those good ol 9 and 10 day charts lol.

Edited November 14, 2017 by sundog

[karlos1983]

19 minutes ago, Heekster said:

I think what a learned last year is that the worst option for us coldies usually comes off so it would be silly to favour the ECM outcome I think ? 

The verification stats would disagree. 

 

[northwestsnow]

For me this is the chart with the most potential this morning- its day 9 on EC so must come with lots of caveats-i was actually  little disappointed with the day 10 when i saw this- plenty of room for coldies to be optimistic about if we get to here- trouble is, its getting to here

Edited November 14, 2017 by northwestsnow

[karlos1983]

Rather worryingly the Icon has gone mild folks 

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

GFS continuing it's journey towards mild weather and unfortunately this is swinging into towards the reliable time frame. UKMO seems to be heading towards the same theme.  After this weekend can't see much in the way of cold weather unfortunately.

You must have been ruing your last comment when the ECM came out? I assume you have no faith in the world's best model?

Nothing much changed since last night.  Greenie high certain  but low heights into Europe, not yet.

Another 24 hours before we know for sure.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

You must have been ruing your last comment when the ECM came out? I assume you have no faith in the world's best model?

Nothing much changed since last night.  Greenie high certain  but low heights into Europe, not yet.

Another 24 hours before we know for sure.

Yes, i think this is the big question now, clearly METO see the jet digging into Europe- GFS isn't really interested but EC does get there in the end.

I think the issue here is the window of opportunity is generally quite small for our little island, next few days will reveal whether we go into a zonal mild fest ala GFS00Z or something more akin to METO outlook, ala EC.

 

[jvenge]

Not that I care either way, but having looked at the EPS mean, I remain rather confused why it is the saviour of coldies this morning. To me the uppers on offer are not nearly cold enough and it seems to be the model most in a rush to let the atlantic in towards the month end.

[Summer Sun]

Monday to Thursday sees the mean getting a high of around +3 it then varies from around -2 to +2 for the rest of the run

Colder again this weekend though with a return to some frosts

Edited November 14, 2017 by Summer Sun

[MR EXTREMES]

Greenland heights still there forget the rest looks like the vortex splits still all to play for at the moment.

But would love to see a 1065mb heights from Greenland to Iceland.

[Frosty.]

Scotland has quite a bit of cold weather and snow on the Gfs 00z..it's very interesting unpredictable output and the uk is very much in the game for a spell or spells of wintry weather before winter even begins!

[Froze were the Days]

Strikes me we're going into a phase of a lot of unsettled weather with LP not far from the UK maybe with the odd plunge of Pm/Am air mass interspersed with milder conditions...can't see anything of note for us coldies, no raving PV but makes you wonder when it will wake up.

Oh well not even winter yet...just have to keep fingers crossed...

[karlos1983]

Slightly better looking mean at D10 to my eye (ecm)

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Slightly better looking mean at D10 to my eye (ecm)

Yes the mean shows the azores high dragged west - the problem as ever for the UK is we need a break in the Atlantic for some Atlantic retrogression- EC kind of shows this at day 9- if we dont get the retrogression then the pattern will flatten out and we will be looking at a zonal set up.

Hopefully we will get that break between Atlantic systems.:)

[jvenge]

Surface and 850 mean anomalies from the GEFS.

[jvenge]

The ECM EPS, although never quite sold on a deeply negative NAO, is sending both the AO and NAO to neutral and then onto slightly positive conditions around the 25th or so.

[johnholmes]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

The ECM EPS, although never quite sold on a deeply negative NAO, is sending both the AO and NAO to neutral and then onto slightly positive conditions around the 25th or so.

At that range the accuracy of either AO or NAO predictions are not very high in my view. All the NAO is anyway is a measure of surface pressure differences between say Iceland and the Azores. Synoptic outputs are questionable beyond about 6-8 days in most cases.

[jvenge]

Just now, johnholmes said:

At that range the accuracy of either AO or NAO predictions are not very high in my view. All the NAO is anyway is a measure of surface pressure differences between say Iceland and the Azores. Synoptic outputs are questionable beyond about 6-8 days in most cases.

Quite true, but as it has come closer, it does seem that the ECM has been shortening the duration of that negative NAO. In the interest of balance, it is worth saying that the GEFS see it going on for much longer, but I'm not really convinced the value it is predicting, even if it verifies, will be of too much use.

I think the UK still has a reasonably good shot of something interesting in the next two weeks, but I can't really say that is reflective in model output at the moment, unless you live at a quite high altitude.

[swfc]

Well given its my birthday was hoping for some big upgrades regarding the suggested blocking ete

My thoughts are the signal remains be it slightly weaker on the models ie cold weather impacting the uk.i still say the nhp is pretty good for mid November and full of "potential"did I say that!!!All to play for and lets hope the atmosphere decides to send our friends the Atlantic lows to coventry,ok maybe iberia.