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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Is the GFS beginning to think about a pattern change or has it lost it marbles and thrown a temporary spanner into the mix. UKMO doesn't agree with it so lets see what the ECM thinks.

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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Well, it only took until the third time of asking to separate the troughs, so that's something I guess :whistling:

The stronger Arctic blocking on this run is notable. AO readings must have gone very low? In some ways we've gone fill circle, with the proper cold signal back to the final week of the month, having been severely teased about a possible earlier onset (and given the GEM 12z, this may yet continue depending on the ECM 12z). How... Amusing?

If I remember correctly something similar happened in either 2009 or 2010. Models repeatedly showing HLB and cold for UK, then signal dissappeared and then reappeared a week beforehand and verified. Still all up for grabs but hope something similar happens here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Jet off on a two tier holiday.Pressure building oop north.Steady as she goes through the Barents?

gfs-5-312.png

gfs-1-324.png

gfs-0-300.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Its like a drama that never ends. Now the GFS after not delivering with the first shortwave now manages to fall over the line with the second one but that's well out past the more reliable timeframe and given whats happened over the last few days I'd refrain from ordering the ear muffs and ice scraper!

The UKMO having been the least interested looks a bit better at T144hrs with an important gap in energy and detachment between the second shortwave upstream and the one over the UK.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.8e7cda1a306aaa240df4f6832441a472.gif

In this set up your shortwave is in a sense your marker in terms of either increases or decreasing chances for cold, the further south this crosses the UK the better chance.

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20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I don't see the day 5 ec op as being particularly encouraging re the lows to our west. if someone wants to contradict me then I'd love to be wrong

Good angle of low crossing UK @day 6 with nice seperation & WAA in the atlantic as well 

Polar blocking not quite as good in terms of depth as GFS

S

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Good angle of low crossing UK @day 6 with nice seperation & WAA in the atlantic as well 

Polar blocking not quite as good in terms of depth as GFS

S

Day 6 looks better than day 5 did steve !  agree the polar field less encouraging and whilst we may well manage an undercut, how cold will the continent be ??

the main models all separate this low around day 5/6 to approach from the west. no agreement on how strong the feature is but at least we have some kind of broad agreement at T120/T144 now

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Day 7 reasonable not quite as good as GEM

polar field droppinng sub -3 ish

IMG_1172.thumb.PNG.0ff468c11ea769336f26c968e75400c8.PNG

need the atlantic alligned NE SE

cold air needs 2 days through scandi to get sub -8c

s

Looks ready to break through to the east of Greenland to me?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Day 7 reasonable not quite as good as GEM

polar field droppinng sub -3 ish

IMG_1172.thumb.PNG.0ff468c11ea769336f26c968e75400c8.PNG

need the atlantic alligned NW SE

cold air needs 2 days through scandi to get sub -8c

s

Any coldie that isn't v happy with that NH needs their eyes tested - not sure what will happen just yet but the opportunity for something cold/ v cold is surely up for grabs by early Dec or if not before.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

polar field by day 8 is very good on the ec op. the AO will be low. I wonder if the eps will catch up on this - the GEFS 12z bottomed out around -4.3

as steve mentioned before, the last couple days where the AO corrected shallower is now heading back the other way.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Impressive cut-polar flow...

Pin-point waa tip greenland..

Bow it watch/wait for shortwave...needs aid-in a drop south/south east...

Then we are in business!!!

ECH1-192.gif

Screenshot_2017-11-13-18-43-45.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Gfs and ecm are not too dissimilar at t216. And both are good looking charts from a coldie perspective. Probably all change in the morning!!

IMG_0016.PNG

IMG_0017.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Hard to have too much faith in this ECM run given its a complete departure from its 00hrs run. Although its following a similar GFS trend the matter of needing two shortwaves to decide if they're going to behave should give cause for concern for coldies.

We really need a southwards correction in the outputs as everything is too finely balanced.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, That ECM said:

Gfs and ecm are not too dissimilar at t216. And both are good looking charts from a coldie perspective. Probably all change in the morning!!

IMG_0016.PNG

IMG_0017.PNG

One big difference gfs has a euro high ecm has euro low.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
58 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

If I remember correctly something similar happened in either 2009 or 2010. Models repeatedly showing HLB and cold for UK, then signal dissappeared and then reappeared a week beforehand and verified. Still all up for grabs but hope something similar happens here. 

Well if the cold is delayed until the last week of November into early December it would not be a bad thing. 

Thought I would wait for the ECM, nice charts but at T240. 

But as much as I hate to admit it, I await the GFS 18z this evening with baited breath, the new trend setter it would seem.:fool:

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

ECM brings us back on track. Not perfect but wouldn't take too much to get there. Now or never if the GFS is going to flip, the key detail is only a few days away.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
5 minutes ago, booferking said:

One big difference gfs has a euro high ecm has euro low.

Indeed but I am looking at the overall pattern on the nh not the detail. I understand that this will have big differences in our locality but looking for detail at t216 is not worth while. The low is there it is just further north. 

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

i  know its deep f1 but this for coldies

12_276_preciptype.png

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