Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[knocker]

The gfs is still correcting the track of the developing low and the explosive cyclogenesis late Wednesday more south east which could briefly impact Scotland with strong winds and snow on the high ground

And then later the east bound energy overrides the ridge and could bring further strong winds and more widespread snow to Scotland over the weekend

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Possibly, but not a certainty, if the low pressure can get East of the UK, there's colder air waiting North of Norway to come down. It could be that Northern and Western parts catch the colder air whilst Southern and Eastern areas are under high pressure.

I doubt very much we would see that low moving SE to allow the floodgates to open from the north.

Neither ukmet or gfs are anything like EC this morning- GEM looks better this evening but really it is rare for that to trump the others.

It is exciting for sure- lets see what EC comes up with

[northwestsnow]

GFS is trying to rid of us of the euro heights into FI

showers turning to snow across Northern scotland

Edited November 13, 2017 by northwestsnow

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes a right old pasting about to move southwards through N. England.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is trying to rid of us of the euro heights into FI

That's showing what I think the Meto might have gone on to show. ECM will be interesting later.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes a right old pasting about to move southwards through N. England.

Yes Feb colder air moving south- scotland seeing some snow as we finally get rid of those horrid euro heights

[That ECM]

The volatility in the models past t168 is huge.  All we know is that it is likely to be a blocked pattern in which gives opportunities. Not this set of runs nor the ones in the morning will give the detail most crave. However it is interesting to watch it pan out. Compare this run and the previous gfs run from t192 onwards and you can see the differences.

Edited November 13, 2017 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

The volatility in the models past t168 is huge.  All we know is that it is likely to be a blocked pattern in which gives opportunities. Not this set of runs nor the ones in the morning will give the detail most crave. However it is interesting to watch it pan out.

Its brilliant, love the model watching as get to November- esp when there is so much going on, and hope for coldies

GFS has got stuck at an interesting juncture

Edited November 13, 2017 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Well last one from me before EC comes out, GFS is actually really quite a cold run longer term and brings plenty of snow chances for the UK.

[Singularity]

Well, it only took until the third time of asking to separate the troughs, so that's something I guess 

The stronger Arctic blocking on this run is notable. AO readings must have gone very low? In some ways we've gone fill circle, with the proper cold signal back to the final week of the month, having been severely teased about a possible earlier onset (and given the GEM 12z, this may yet continue depending on the ECM 12z). How... Amusing?

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well last one from me before EC comes out, GFS is actually really quite a cold run longer term and brings plenty of snow chances for the UK.

Although at the last few frames it looks like the UK wasn't invited to the after party with the other guests. Still, best not to obsess over det runs. To the ensembles....;-)

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows southwesterly winds taking over on Sunday still chilly for the east but turning milder in the west with some rain most likely in the north 

[booferking]

Gem is a good match for metoffice outlook showers turning wintry at the  weekend then small chance of front pushing in to the south west early next week with snow on hills maybe slightly progressive with the low as its there on sunday but still a good match then thereafter we are likely to see blocking pattern becoming established.

[mulzy]

The ICON model seems to eject that pesky shortwave SE from day 5 onwards - this is what we want I guess?

[Mucka]

Just to say, UKMO 144 really is not a terrible chart for coldies IMO as that neg tilted low is not getting through and would stall in the Atlantic, while the low over Ireland would clear through to the East. Hopefully the 168 chart will confirm that judgement.

 

Edited November 13, 2017 by Mucka

[Summer Sun]

This is one big high from GFS at the end

Edited November 13, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is actually really quite a cold run longer term and brings plenty of snow chances for the UK.

Absolutely, this run and the Gem in the medium / longer range is like Exeter is indicating with more of a wintry pattern gradually becoming established from the north..nothing like the ukmo model...fingers crossed we coldies  are in for a wintry outbreak in the near future! Hopefully GloSea5 / Mogreps continue with their cold blocking signal for late Nov / early Dec!

Edited November 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The ICON model seems to eject that pesky shortwave SE from day 5 onwards - this is what we want I guess?

LOL mulzy, that’s a new one on me.... the ICON Model? Desperate times 

that said, I like its output...must be good

Edited November 13, 2017 by karlos1983

[Summer Sun]

What a difference 24hrs makes with GEM

Sunday 12z ?

Monday 12z ?

[Dennis]

well if the NAO lines are OK......then it could happen that a Greenie high is more setup and stable

Edited November 13, 2017 by Dennis

[Man With Beard]

Kinfe edge and this afternoon we're just on the wrong side for the Arctic blast. If the low near Ireland can get to the Scandi trough we could get the northerly later on. 

[bluearmy]

AO/NAO combo -5/-3.8 on that gfs op run 

[mulzy]

17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

LOL mulzy, that’s a new one on me.... the ICON Model? Desperate times 

that said, I like its output...must be good

It's German - must be good! 

I will scrape any barrel if I have to!!

Edited November 13, 2017 by mulzy

[NorthernRab]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This is one big high from GFS at the end

Makes a difference from the one big low of this thread! 

 

The 12hz is actually really interesting and would produce some potent northerly blasts / settled periods with very low temps for November, particularly to Scotland. However, the volatility is such that, until we get some actual consistency between runs let alone between models, it's best to take all these runs with a big pinch of salt. It's been a few years since we've had a nice area of high pressure with cold 850 hPa temps though (see attached charts)

 

 

 

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's German - must be good! 

I will scrape any barrel if I have to!!

No no no, I’d call it resourceful   

Edited November 13, 2017 by karlos1983