Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Methuselah]

Come on peeps, chins up: what the models may show has absolutely no effect whatsoever on what the weather will do...relax and enjoy whatever Mother Nature sends our way?

Very sorry to hear about you wife, Legritter; very sad indeed...

Edited November 13, 2017 by Ed Stone

[winterof79]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

'Dire' - did some of you go to school?  

Well we still manage this on the mean, we are still none the wiser, however what has firmed up is that HP is likely to be in the vicinity of UK (blocking placement is still uncertain) resulting in dry, cold, conditions for a time thereafter who really knows. Folk should also take assurance that the realm of possible wintry potential is drawing nearer. 

It would be wonderful if Fergie could provide some insight from the big guns but it's this constant emotional flux that is one big driver for he's absence and others.. I'm afraid the models don't give a damn what you feel! Calm down folks it's just the weather. All the more poignant with the passing of legritter's lovely wife - sorry to hear that mate, just know we all I hope are wishing you strength in these hard times.  

 

 

Many perturbs are blocked by the end of the run.....just an observation

Sincere condolences Legritter.

[tight isobar]

The 12 suites going to make for v-interesting viewing(upcoming)

A lot of deciphering as regards block placements/and organisation of pv set-up.

As others deepest sympathes @legwritter..

That disease has an awful lot to answer for.

[MR EXTREMES]

5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its never a good thing when you have a load of shortwaves around the Southern tip of Greenland like on the 6z GFS, you always know one of them is going to shoot out towards Iceland and ruin everything, if your going to have disruption around that area, you want it clearly split flow with the energy going Directly North and directly south so you can pump up a nice HLB.

Is the 6z gospel then ?

I'm under the impression northern blocking being modelled constant just placing is the hard part.

12z I find better as it's whole day of data not 6hrs.

And GFS has always been a half way house type of model.

I'd settle for dry frosty start to winter any day but from what I've seen it looks likely somewhere in the UK will get some wintry weather as we have already seen.

Can't see CET getting above average this month judging on the model outputs.

Absolutely deepest sympathy legritter my thoughts are with you at this difficult time.

Edited November 13, 2017 by MR EXTREMES

[bobbydog]

3 hours ago, legritter said:

Good morning Gang ,Its great to be back reading the Posts on Net weather .My Wife passed away two weeks ago ,she had Pancreatic Cancer which spread ,but enjoyed life since she was diagnosed back in April , No one now to tell me OFF when i make Dirty marks on the Curtains in the winter to see if its SNowing around our street lights .Catch you all up soon ,i,m looking forward to the friendly chatter !!!!!!!! Banter and The Best weather forum in the World ,Shovels at the Ready ,cheers 

so sorry to hear that mate, glad to see you're keeping your spirits up despite everything. it should be a reminder to us all that there are more important things in life than a little bit of snow, so its not worth getting upset about a few dodgy charts! you always do your best to keep our spirits up in here so keep posting! anyway, i think this year could throw a few pleasant snowy surprises our way and bring you back a bit of cheer so you can have a few stellas to celebrate! 

[karlos1983]

oooh someone pressed the start button early on the GFS, must mean they couldn't wait to show us and a stella run is on the way 

Edited November 13, 2017 by karlos1983

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Imo the most crucial set of 12z runs of season so far. Lets hope they all come on board for us coldies and make this forum a very happy place later this evening..

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Imo the most crucial set of 12z runs of season so far. Lets hope they all come on board for us coldies and make this forum a very happy place later this evening..

Just for arguments sake, let’s say they are positive for coldies - all that does is stop the drift away from cold which has been happening for a few runs now. Will take a trending back to sustained cold over a few runs to make that outcome more likely 

[feb1991blizzard]

23 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

oooh someone pressed the start button early on the GFS, must mean they couldn't wait to show us and a stella run is on the way 

Not looking like it so far, trending even flatter again by T84.

[Singularity]

+ 87 hours.

06z:  12z:  

Low by the UK further east, and low by the Azores further NE, interacting with the one near Canada to set up a more negatively-tilted flow up the western flank of the ridge.

Positive adjustments to this point with respect to building a stronger ridge and holding the Atlantic back for longer.

+102:

  
Differences not as marked as hoped for following earlier changes, but the flow on the western flank of the ridge is still better aligned than the 06z had it. Shift east in pattern may just mean a cold, dry sort of weekend, but this may lead to a better shot at building a ridge to our N/NE early next week... with any luck! Given this is GFS, keeping my expectations on the low side.

[karlos1983]

UKMO +120 vs GFS +120, fairly good agreement it has to be said

Ok blocking is prevalent, but its no nirvana for the UK. be chilly though. I fully expect the ECM to look similar at D5

For sure though, opportunities still exist. Look at the NH profile... what PV?

Edited November 13, 2017 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

Until that small low in the Atlantic does something other than just move West to East, we are going to struggle to get a decent run.

EDIT : This still doesn't rule out the fact that we might still might still end up with a blocked cold run deep in FI but if you look how many lows / shortwaves your reliant on to do what we need exactly at the right time then would you even have any faith in the output anyway?.

Edited November 13, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Singularity]

So that low still managed to push east despite everything. Seems we really need that little tropical/subtropical low to catch up with it on day 4 as per the 00z ECM.

With the low pushing east the best we can hope for is that it doesn't open the door to further troughs coming along behind it. It'd have to become disassociated with the trough to its west and then either fill in-situ with a new ridge building from the south, or nip across the UK with a new ridge building in behind.

Unconvinced about so much eastward movement though; the low is almost disconnected from the primary jet stream.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Until that small low in the Atlantic does something other than just move West to East, we are going to struggle to get a decent run.

I actually agree with you and ukmo pretty much the same rest of Europe cold were just to far west.

[Mucka]

The difference between how GFS and this mornings ECM handle the Atlantic low from day 3 sets the tone.

Surprising difference at such short range. GFS top, ECM bottom.

 

UKMO is closer to GFS for day 3/4 this evening but is much more favourable upstream thereafter than GFS.

UKMO/GFS 12z 120h

Edited November 13, 2017 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

Think we are going to be in last chance saloon with tonights EC as far as the pattern is concerned- whilst there are differences between ukmet/gfs neither are going to produce anything resembling the meto mrf IMHO.

Edit although gfs is looking better by 174

 

 

Edited November 13, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Singularity]

It's amazing how powerful and expansive that block it, and yet how little GFS has it doing for us up to this point.

It does seem like that next low really ought to stay back west, but recent runs have refused to weaken the jet sufficiently despite the blocking situation.

Shame the Scandi trough is shallower on this run as it might be interesting to have that low nipping across and then engaging with a deep trough close to our east.

It really is going to be cut that close, isn't it? Oh the joy of model watching  Time to take a dusk-stroll I think. 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think we are going to be in last chance saloon with tonights EC as far as the pattern is concerned- whilst there are differences between ukmet/gfs neither are going to produce anything resembling the meto mrf IMHO.

 

Luckily its only Nov 13th and not Dec 13th, any cold wintry weather we get in the rest of November will be a welcome bonus.?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Luckily its only Nov 13th and not Dec 13th, any cold wintry weather we get in the rest of November will be a welcome bonus.?

Absolutely mate- and i suspect gfs is going to be a better run longer term

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Atleast the Gem has changed it's mind on the 12z. :).

[karlos1983]

UKMO +144  

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Atleast the Gem has changed it's mind on the 12z. :).

3 cheers for GEM - thats better than either ukmet/gfs

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO +144  

Yes not a nice ukmet run for coldies, setting up for the dreaded west based -NAO

[northwestsnow]

A really frustrating gfs12z- vortex in tatters but still generally mild and wet for the UK- the high across europe is an absolute cold killer for us..

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes not a nice ukmet run for coldies, setting up for the dreaded west based -NAO

Possibly, but not a certainty, if the low pressure can get East of the UK, there's colder air waiting North of Norway to come down. It could be that Northern and Western parts catch the colder air whilst Southern and Eastern areas are under high pressure.