Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[bluearmy]

Whatever yesterday seemed to bring the glass half full brigade, the 00z suites have definitely fulfilled those of a half empty variety !

nothing particularly positive for coldies on the extended eps 

[Summer Sun]

GFS Op on the warmer side of the mean from the 21st ish

[knocker]

The EPS 7-12 mean anomaly does support to some extent the det. run

Briefly it has the twin vortex lobes Russia and near the coast of NW Canada linking to the Scandinavian trough and (I suspect quite importantly) a trough running SE and linking to a trough in mid Atlantic south west of the UK. Between these two troughs the high pressure to the west of the UK ridges north west into Greenland thus the probability is that the surface high will be in the westerly quadrant vis the UK  with temps around average perhaps a tad below.. But there is still a fair amount of energy tracking out of the US to the trough  in the SW which i think the gfs is coming from

 

[northwestsnow]

Well years of experience tells me we are being led up the garden path again lol.

You have to say, its a cruel life being a coldie

We are left with EC as our only hope of something resembling the METO outlook-i was hoping GFS 18z was a blip but when you look at this mornings runs,it really wasn't.

I would imagine if GFS is going to flip back it would need to start happening on the next couple of runs, but we have been here so many times before..

[Daniel*]

30 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well, most of us know the propensity of the ecm to over amplify but let's keep the faith for now. Remember it is still the best performer in terms of verification. 

Since the 'upgrade' to EC earlier this year correct me if I'm wrong I've not noticed this nearly as much. GFS 00Z op is one big mild outlier with its roaring southwesterlies, I don't know why folk are star struck - this swinging back and fourth without doubt always happens. A few very cold options still spread amongst there, I'm not concerned yet. 

[northwestsnow]

EC mean is a backtrack too- 

cant post images but its defo putting more emphasis on the northern arm of the jet.

Edited November 13, 2017 by northwestsnow

[feb1991blizzard]

FWIW the CFS brings its first stonker run for ages (its been the most consistent ive known it ever) and predicts a Dec CET of 1-2c and in parts of the region under 1.

Edited November 13, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[snowray]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I wònder if this solution would be better a few weeks later as the wavelengths change that bit further. without much upstream to keep it going the northern arm is still modelled stronger and the subsequent ridging from the  sw prevents the next system from going se. Without that we would get the blocking able to link up to the Arctic. 

Btw, can anyone conform that nothing unexpected  is going on re sunspot activity. 

The Sun has been spotless for the last two weeks after being quite active last month, seems that we might be entering a prolonged minimum phase early and could be on the cusp of the next grand minimum.

[MR EXTREMES]

Well last night as nick Sussex suggested the states seem to follow ECM ideas.

So I'd give it at least 48 hours to see if they and the ukmo back of from the original ideas of yesterday.

Finer details are something the models don't deal well with even at 72hrs especially the GFS.

We need the Azores to be suppressed to our west into the northwest also need main vortex segment over the Siberian side.

Like I said from now till December we need more disruption to the vortex.

The jet stream yesterday suggested heights to our west northwest and the jet splitting the energy.

As for the vortex it has been disrupted,

but still maintaining its recent years of intensity,

which is a bit of a thorn in the coldies side.

But still I'm confident that other background signals may provide something wintry at times at some point going into winter.

 

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is a backtrack too- 

cant post images but its defo putting more emphasis on the northern arm of the jet.

I think you’re nitpicking here.. many would grab at it one thing for sure it’s anything but mild, still a bolder signal for +ve heights to retain to the NW of British Isles, AH displaced on a negative axis away from British Isles, low heights in Europe is that not a cocktail for cold. Evidence this is what we will have for the foreseeable perhaps not overly cold but certainly seasonal and frosty. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I think you’re nitpicking here.. many would grab at it one thing for sure it’s anything but mild, still a bolder signal for +ve heights to retain to the NW of British Isles, AH displaced on a negative axis away from British Isles, low heights in Europe is that not a cocktail for cold. Evidence this is what we will have for the foreseeable perhaps not overly cold but certainly seasonal and frosty. 

Hope your right Daniel, fingers crossed.

[Chesil View]

Unless or until the meto change their extended outlook I see no reason at all to be disappointed. All this talk of backtracks and garden paths etc seems rather knee jerk and premature. Based on a couple of runs from the American GFS model that most of the time the Americans themselves don,t trust. Members should go on some of the American forums to see the disdain which the GFS is held in compared with ECM and METO. 

Regular readers of the summaries of American forecasters thoughts posted by Nick Sussex will know only too well how often they side with the ECM against their own model.  Keep the faith guys after all winter hasn,t even started yet.

[jvenge]

Control from the ECM is quite encouraging for those looking for cold all the way out to T360. 

The ensemble mean suggests that the control is not among a majority favoured evolution, though. 

[weirpig]

Ecm is the king of models  always has been   of course it may be wrong  but i would never back the GFS against the Ecm    i guess its that time of year when a few runs sends everyone into a frenzy.   ill take a breath and watch from afar   loads to be sorted yet.

Edited November 13, 2017 by weirpig

[karlos1983]

Well pretty disappointing 12 hours or so in the model watching world. However whilst the ECM is still showing us a route to cold and the Met O still firmly believe we will be under the influence of blocking, with Easterly or Northerly airflow, I believe there is still much to be optimistic about. Lets see where the 12z take us. 

D7 chart..... not D10

D10 shows our High going on a little holiday North west of us... 

Edited November 13, 2017 by karlos1983

[Stozzy]

I don't see what all this panic is about . If that low on the gfs is slightly further southwest we are in a northerly or north easterly airflow . I arnt worried yet 

[nick sussex]

It’s a bit of a mess this morning with a game of model musical chairs .

The UKMO is an improvement at T144hrs with a more favourable looking shortwave to the west.

The GFS again has problems ejecting the upstream shortwave cleanly and this now becomes absorbed by the main low which isn’t good.

The ECM has now moved a little towards the GFS/UKMO , it’s not as sharp upstream and is now thinking of ejecting a shortwave at T144hrs.

Overall still no resolution as to what to expect, the ECM at least doesn’t deliver the dreaded west based negative NAO.

The key time frame is around T144hrs to T168hrs , if that falls kindly then a decent spell of colder weather is possible, but it’s trying to overcome those shortwave problems that’s turned into a big hurdle.

[northwestsnow]

Doesnt look like 6z is going to be backtrackng @ 96 its almost identical to the poor 0z run.

[Duane S.]

Be honest, what would peoeple prefer?

The charts consistently showing HLB and the Met Office resolute on a mild outlook or... the charts flip flopping all over the place and the Met Office saying cold?

Of course, both would be nice! But- if I had to choose, the latter gets my vote every time.

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well pretty disappointing 12 hours or so in the model watching world. However whilst the ECM is still showing us a route to cold and the Met O still firmly believe we will be under the influence of blocking, with Easterly or Northerly airflow, I believe there is still much to be optimistic about. Lets see where the 12z take us. 

D7 chart..... not D10

Totally agree. No matter how many times the models hinted at cold scenarios last Winter ,the METO extended was never interested. There is a clue there somewhere

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Be honest, what would peoeple prefer?

The charts consistently showing HLB and the Met Office resolute on a mild outlook or... the charts flip flopping all over the place and the Met Office saying cold?

Of course, both would be nice! But- if I had to choose, the latter gets my vote every time.

Yes i think thats fair-

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Be honest, what would peoeple prefer?

The charts consistently showing HLB and the Met Office resolute on a mild outlook or... the charts flip flopping all over the place and the Met Office saying cold?

Of course, both would be nice! But- if I had to choose, the latter gets my vote every time.

Yes, all day, but its not like they are predicting a top quality scenario, its slushy deposits for the South at best and nothing spectacular further North, its HLB with marginal uppers to me.

[feb1991blizzard]

Its never a good thing when you have a load of shortwaves around the Southern tip of Greenland like on the 6z GFS, you always know one of them is going to shoot out towards Iceland and ruin everything, if your going to have disruption around that area, you want it clearly split flow with the energy going Directly North and directly south so you can pump up a nice HLB.

[northwestsnow]

So much forcing in the Atlantic !! 6z actually looks a bit better but i just cant see the retrogression needed with that much strength in the northern arm.

[karlos1983]

less in the way of shortwave drama on the 06z, not sure where this will end up? Probably close but no cigar

Edited November 13, 2017 by karlos1983