Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes don't want that high sinking, ends up over the UK, just a little shift north required now on tomorrows runs.

The sinking high is in relation to the earlier timeframe at T144hrs. If the upstream trough is going to eject a shortwave towards the UK then you want the high flattened, then you rely on height rises near Iceland and south Greenland to develop.

If the ECM is correct you want that trough upstream to amplify and not eject a shortwave towards the UK.

You don't want a middle ground solution as that looks something like the crud delivered by the UKMO.

Edited November 12, 2017 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

Looks very good to me, the Ecm 12z shows our weather turning progressively colder from the NW  from Friday onwards, becoming cold enough for showers to turn increasingly wintry, especially further North with snow for some and widespread frosts with icy patches. This run follows the current trend which is towards an increasingly blocked and cold extended outlook with plenty of frosty weather as pressure rises and winds become light..?..better than the usual mild filth anyday!

[Met4Cast]

The UKMO producing that worrys me. We've been in this situation many times where it's the GFS & ECM against the UKMO and almost every single time, the UKMO has nailed it. I'm not confident in anything the outputs put out if the UKMO isn't on board.

Having said that, nice to see a trend for the Scandi High re-appearing.

[Man With Beard]

I'll be honest, this is the kind of run that has failed from the ECM in the last three years. No conclusive direction tonight.

[northwestsnow]

As we head into friday and beyond these are the EC temp deviation plots- 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 12, 2017 by northwestsnow

[nick sussex]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

The UKMO producing that worrys me. We've been in this situation many times where it's the GFS & ECM against the UKMO and almost every single time, the UKMO has nailed it. I'm not confident in anything the outputs put out if the UKMO isn't on board.

Having said that, nice to see a trend for the Scandi High re-appearing.

I'd be more worried about the UKMO if its recent performance was good. It has in the past though dealt a blow to hopes so of course we'd like to see it move either to the ECM or GFS. I'd prefer the ECM because that won't have coldies nerves shredded! The high at day ten shouldn't sink which means we could see a decent spell of colder weather.

[snowray]

I think that the guys at the Met Office are just being cautious with the UKMO, they know our climate best and our usual late November default type of weather. The further outlook confirms the GFS and ECM type of synoptics and they will probably come on board tomorrow, but my worry as ever is that an even slightly watered down version will be useless in late November unless you live in the highest areas of the country.

Edited November 12, 2017 by snowray

[bluearmy]

The ec op over the polar field chalk and cheese with its previous run. I don't think the models have a scooby re the solution  beyond T120/144. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The ec op over the polar field chalk and cheese with its previous run. I don't think the models have a scooby re the solution  beyond T120/144. 

I'm not entirely sure they have a scooby beyond about 96 if i could be serious Blue-

One things for sure, if EC op is on the ball tonight thats 'old skool' November weather- its absolutely freezing here tonight- as we head forward another 10 days the days get shorter (obv) ..

A cold high will produce some pretty low minima i would imagine.

[comet]

Good runs tonight. lets just hope they now build on this and not backtrack into another pickle again tomorrow.

[phil nw.]

The 2m temps on the gefs look quite low

C,England                                                        C.Scotland

Low single figures after mid-week,frosts,week 2 looks colder.

The pattern in the Op runs vary from day 4 on most runs but the Ens continue to consistently show below average temperatures almost to month end.

 

[Man With Beard]

EC ensemble mean chart is interesting again - main theme is a very cold high with hard frosts, but it's interesting to see a heights to our west actually moving back wards into the Atlantic, which suggests there will be a number of ensemble members trapping a trough underneath some sort of height rise to our north.

 

[ICE COLD]

32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC ensemble mean chart is interesting again - main theme is a very cold high with hard frosts, but it's interesting to see a heights to our west actually moving back wards into the Atlantic, which suggests there will be a number of ensemble members trapping a trough underneath some sort of height rise to our north.

 

Let's hope the trend continues? Could you post the charts MWB please ? Cheers 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Let's hope the trend continues? Could you post the charts MWB please ? Cheers 

Here you are ICE COLD

day ten ecm and gfs means,they look pretty good to me

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Let's hope the trend continues? Could you post the charts MWB please ? Cheers 

Just going by the mean charts at the moment - note the high shifts west, along with the Scandi trough.

Clusters out 10.30ish. 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended puts us in a southwesterly next Sunday which backs GEM's idea of something milder in a week or so

 

Edited November 12, 2017 by Summer Sun

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Here you are ICE COLD

day ten ecm and gfs means,they look pretty good to me

Thank you Allseasons . Yep they look good to me too ?

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Just going by the mean charts at the moment - note the high shifts west, along with the Scandi trough.

Clusters out 10.30ish. 

Cheers MWB . Looking good .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended puts us in a southwesterly next Sunday which backs GEM's idea of something milder in a week or so

 

Oh well SS, it's only Nov, too early really for deep cold away from the north/high levels

[nick sussex]

Actually having seen the UKMO T168hrs chart  I’m going to go further than my original it’s crud comment regarding the T144hrs  , it’s utterly vile and needs to never darken this thread again ! 

[Man With Beard]

Oh I couldn't resist it, I flicked through all 51 EC ensembles on weather.us, and yes, about 50% of runs are between a northerly and an easterly by D10, and a lot are "boom" charts. 

Of the rest, maybe 20% euro highs and the rest either settled cold or just a mess. The clusters on brunnur.vedur.is will clarify them a bit later.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking at the ECM tonight and I get a sense of de ja vu. All looks very very similar to how mid-late November panned out last year

[January Snowstorm]

There's a phrase over here mutton dressed up as lamb......For me it sums up the models at the moment as they all struggle with the the 7-10 day brackett. Let's be honest neither option between all the big 3 is much to write home about....cold frosty or back to mild mush. I don't see anything from a wintry point of view yet anyway.

Of course the trend is our friend and it's far from raging zonality on offer which is the great news. A few upgrades during the week and we'd be in business!

[Stozzy]

A wouldn't be too concerned on the  Ukmo and gem models . The met office still going for a cold spell 

[nick sussex]

Just now, Heekster said:

Isn't it normal though for the model that shows mlld to be right even if all the others are different, that's what I found last year.

What just last year it’s been the same since I can remember ! Lol  The UKMO sucks big time , if that verifies I’ll be hitting the bottle !  It looks like a west based negative NAO which I detest even more than the limpet Azores high! Anyway let’s keep the faith , the UKMO has been woeful all week and has been late to the party although at this stage we’re not sure which is the correct one, the ECM or the GFS.

I see you’re new in here so welcome to NW and if you like cold weather and snow you’re in the right place with lots of fellow coldies.