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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
17 minutes ago, snowray said:

All over by the 28th. Lets hope we can at least get a snowy breakdown later on in Dec.

gfsnh-0-384.png

Come on now, I know you're just commenting on one run, but for it to be 'all over' by the 28th that would require that every single detail, down to the most minute bit of data, is 100% correct. Huge areas of cold pooling sat beneath a large block are notoriously difficult to cast aside, so it's extremely likely that even if the 12hz is correct in its handling of the setting up of cold (and that's a massive if) then it's going to struggle with working out how and when a breakdown will come.

It can't be over before it's even begun! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Don't tell nick s but gem 12z produces a classic west based neg nao late on ! 

Just as well its only the GEM, but after last nights 18z horror show I think that its the ECM that will lead the way, all eyes on the 12z.

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
1 minute ago, NorthernRab said:

Come on now, I know you're just commenting on one run, but for it to be 'all over' by the 28th that would require that every single detail, down to the most minute bit of data, is 100% correct. Huge areas of cold pooling sat beneath a large block are notoriously difficult to cast aside, so it's extremely likely that even if the 12hz is correct in its handling of the setting up of cold (and that's a massive if) then it's going to struggle with working out how and when a breakdown will come.

It can't be over before it's even begun! 

I'm not comparing this to 2010, but remember when the breakdown was supposedly coming but it just kept getting pushed back day upon day.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Come on now, I know you're just commenting on one run, but for it to be 'all over' by the 28th that would require that every single detail, down to the most minute bit of data, is 100% correct. Huge areas of cold pooling sat beneath a large block are notoriously difficult to cast aside, so it's extremely likely that even if the 12hz is correct in its handling of the setting up of cold (and that's a massive if) then it's going to struggle with working out how and when a breakdown will come.

It can't be over before it's even begun! 

Yes I your quite right of course. Its just that it would be typical of recent winters if everything was blown away before winter proper had even started yet. Met Office are also going for milder possibly, as we go into December. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The models, especially the Gfs / Gefs is oozing wintry potential again today..I honestly believe the UK will experience some wintry weather during the second half of november..and winter still to look forward to!!!:wink::cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

I still think the GFS op has more room for improvements for that high into Greenland for the start of next week some of the ens have the right idea the GFS will upgrade the high run by run i believe:D .:cold-emoji:

gens-4-1-192.png

gens-9-1-192.png

gens-10-1-192.png

gens-14-1-192.png

gens-15-1-192.png

gens-16-1-192.png

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The issue with the UKMO is it has the high further north and we also see the trigger shortwave further northwest and unlikely to be ejected favourably.

The high is no good to us because the jet is running over the top of it and we need to rely on heights developing north of the trigger shortwave.

GFS

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.d1ab051d1ca5b0e2f1637ddc488f0393.png

UKMO

UN144-21.thumb.gif.f16e4170e6c831bc15dda7ae0267b2af.gif

Thanks Nick :)

It will be interesting to see EC where EC goes this evening!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

19th to 28th GFS 12z op is on the colder side of the mean

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.3ec032536e409834ab82a32537c98e95.png

With regards to the 850's this weekend is the lowest they get going by the mean for the next 2 weeks

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

12z ECM will be interesting. ECM ensembles from 00z were quite the mix, some runs had some big falls of snow though lots of variety across the board. Equally some runs showed nothing, but certainly enough to keep interest going, especially as late November tends to be where things can get interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, snowray said:

All over by the 28th. Lets hope we can at least get a snowy breakdown later on in Dec.

gfsnh-0-384.png

It's a bit early to be talking about breakdowns 2 weeks away. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Good model output so far tonight even the UKMO run is not to shabby although a slight delay in Atlantic height rises until the high just to the west of the UK slides away southeast. Definitely get the feeling that there could be colder upgrades on the way. Lets hope the ECM run keeps up the positivity tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM T144 looks like the pick of the bunch to me, early doorway to cold here!:D

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Should be a good northerly at T192 on EC ? 

 

Edit : That will do for now :)

IMG_0620.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM now planning a different route!

Different handling of upstream trough energy which leaves us none the wiser this evening as to whats going to happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM now planning a different route!

Different handling of upstream trough energy which leaves us none the wiser this evening as to whats going to happen.

Less messy route though the ECM, can the high get sucked up into Scandi now I wonder?

ECH1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM now planning a different route!

Different handling of upstream trough energy which leaves us none the wiser this evening as to whats going to happen.

Indeed nick.the difference between the ecm earlier is vast by any standard esp regarding the nhp and blocking to the north west?????

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Up she goes into Scandi, glorious ECM....Very much game on I would say now.:D:cold:

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Less messy route though the ECM, can the high get sucked up into Scandi now I wonder?

ECH1-192.png

more than likely end up with a squished high and a cut off low over europe. dont worry, the next run will be different again!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Less messy route though the ECM, can the high get sucked up into Scandi now I wonder?

ECH1-192.png

Yes a less traumatic route to something colder without a shortwave drama. We need either this or the GFS solution. We don't want a middle ground solution so either the clean more amplified troughing upstream at the key timeframe like the ECM or a quick sinking of the high and shortwave running se per the GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes a less traumatic route to something colder without a shortwave drama. We need either this or the GFS solution. We don't want a middle ground solution so either the clean more amplified troughing upstream at the key timeframe like the ECM or a quick sinking of the high and shortwave running se per the GFS.

Yes don't want that high sinking, looks like it wants to end up over the UK, just a little shift north required now on tomorrows runs.:)

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

Edited by snowray
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