Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Ice Day]

Looking good for those members in the North West next weekend.  Of course these precip charts shouldn't be taken too seriously, but a chance for some of the white stuff  down to lower levels.....maybe even Crewe Cold will see some!?

[phil nw.]

Looking into week 2 still signs of continued Atlantic amplification.Greenland height anomalies and therefore ridging looking to increase again so i would imagine further injections of polar air likely  as long as the mean position of  Azores high remains displaced west as shown..

Day 10

Mean trough heading se into nw Europe.

Latest ens.graphs

Those for C.England, 2-3C lower for further north.Hill snow,night frosts at times,chilly feel,old style Autumn.

[Dennis]

Great new signs ... still wait a few days from now (thats what always gives some uncertainty) lets follow day by day

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

Great new signs ... still wait a few days from now (thats what always gives some uncertainty) lets follow day by day

That would be just about perfect 

[Dennis]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

That would be just about perfect 

Yes i follow this a long time and hope that we will get a nice winter after long time waiting (of course for winterfans)

[Daniel*]

UKMO 144

Not a single one of GEFS 06z suite back chilly anticyclonic UKMO solution. 

 

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO 144

Not a single one of GEFS 06z suite back chilly anticyclonic UKMO solution. 

 

unless it is on the money and You are the gfs of course...that would be bad

Edited November 11, 2017 by karlos1983

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

27 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Great new signs ... still wait a few days from now (thats what always gives some uncertainty) lets follow day by day

Wow that screams huge potential for a classic end of nov snowy spell. Let's hope it comes off.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Wow that screams huge potential for a classic end of nov snowy spell. Let's hope it comes off.

To me it looks like Spirograph when I was a bairn!

[northwestsnow]

So the metoffice backs the 6z GFS with a cold North westerly with rain and hill snow through next weekend

The question now is what happens after the NWly- the high in the Atlantic will likely ridge in towards the UK, can we get get enough amplification upstream to prevent the high toppling into Europe?

I appreciate for the majority it just looks cold with cold rain mixed in with colder drier weather but for those with decent altitude its quite exciting-  esp for those in NW Britain  its looking likely you will hit the snow jackpot quite early this year.

Edited November 11, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

It's a relief to see the Ecm / Gfs colder changeable /unsettled (polar / arctic maritime) solution being favoured..hopefully this means coldies ( the majority on here) will get to enjoy plenty of cold weather from late next week / early the following week onwards with widespread frosts and a growing risk of snow before winter even starts..what a bonus that would be!

Edited November 11, 2017 by Frosty.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a relief to see the Ecm / Gfs colder unsettled solution being favoured..hopefully this means coldies ( the majority on here) will get to enjoy plenty of cold weather from late next week onwards with frosts and a growing risk of snow before winter even starts..what a bonus that would be!

Is this finally the winter we've been craving so badly ????

Edited November 11, 2017 by Connor Bailey Degnan

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a relief to see the Ecm / Gfs colder unsettled solution being favoured..hopefully this means coldies ( the majority on here) will get to enjoy plenty of cold weather from late next week onwards with frosts and a growing risk of snow before winter even starts..what a bonus that would be!

While i agree i still feel the ukmo run is nice dry and cold...win win really mate...

[Jonan92]

What I don't like is that every run the heights are lowered in the pole, I remember the charts of a couple days ago and if you compare them to the current ones the jet is much stronger in the pole. It seems that it will regain strenght fast, I wouldn't be surprised if the models start showing a zonal jet soon

[Snowy L]

11 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

What I don't like is that every run the heights are lowered in the pole, I remember the charts of a couple days ago and if you compare them to the current ones the jet is much stronger in the pole. It seems that it will regain strenght fast, I wouldn't be surprised if the models start showing a zonal jet soon

 We also have low pressure above the North Atlantic/South Greenland High in both the GFS and ECM at t168 and the link to the arctic high is incredibly weak in both models too. Things will only go one direction when you have low pressure going above the alleged "northern" block. Not much to get excited about imo unless you live in the Pennines.

Edited November 11, 2017 by Snowy L

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

What I don't like is that every run the heights are lowered in the pole, I remember the charts of a couple days ago and if you compare them to the current ones the jet is much stronger in the pole. It seems that it will regain strenght fast, I wouldn't be surprised if the models start showing a zonal jet soon

There is quite a cooling in the polar region due which would probably strengthen the pv going into december

[Methuselah]

My main worry is that, should the upcoming cold-spell fail to materialise (not entirely unprecedented outcome!) I'll have to change my username to 'That ECM, that GFS, that GEM, that UKMO and that NANGEM'...

Which might be 'problematic?

[nick sussex]

Quite surprised to see the UKMO continuing with its trend from last night.

Its not bad in terms of pattern for coldies but what we don’t want is a halfway solution. So either the UKMO or GFS/ECM , either upstream amplification to build the ridge to the nw or one with amplified troughing sufficiently to the west of the UK which helps to pull high pressure ne towards Scandi .

 

Edited November 11, 2017 by nick sussex

[damianslaw]

Just focusing on the near time - there could be a surprise fairly low level albeit shortlived snowfall event on Monday in central parts of Scotland at least - as we see a frontal feature moving into cold level air.. with the aid of evaporative cooling, I won't be surprised if a few places with modest height - say about 250-300m sees a bit of a wet cover during Monday, before the snow turns quickly to rain. Nothing unusual, but will be interesting to see. Chances will increase if the front slows down, and there are signs it may be about to do this.

Into next week proper, it looks mostly changeable, trending cold again in the second half as polar/arctic maritime air once again embeds itself, which could mean it is the fourth weekend in a row with a northerly feed.

Longer term - as I said the other day, expect a few more twists and turns in the models, before they settle down on a consistent theme early next week. 

[karlos1983]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

My main worry is that, should the upcoming cold-spell fail to materialise (not entirely unprecedented outcome!) I'll have to change my username to 'That ECM, that GFS, that GEM, that UKMO and that NANGEM'...

Which might be 'problematic?

Pole dancer?

[tinybill]

58 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Pole dancer?

all i say is the coldies must be licking  theie lips at the  moment!!!

[mpkio2]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Quite surprised to see the UKMO continuing with its trend from last night.

Its not bad in terms of pattern for coldies but what we don’t want is a halfway solution. So either the UKMO or GFS/ECM , either upstream amplification to build the ridge to the nw or one with amplified troughing sufficiently to the west of the UK which helps to pull high pressure ne towards Scandi .

 

Me too Nick.

Again, I can't see why some think UKMO is bad, seeing how the low in the Atlantic is still sending up WAA over the UK to the pole and build a high over Scandy. I think its a longer route to cold, but if the low dives south as a high builds, we SHOULD still be in business.

[FluidHomeFront]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

To me it looks like Spirograph when I was a bairn!

If its any help, I find the earth.nullschool.net visualisation makes the air flow paths less retro looking and easier to understand:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=9.23,66.45,549/loc=-0.793,39.574

[Man With Beard]

Well the latest UKMO ditches its previous idea and pushes the Atlantic trough right through by T144. 

I'm guessing the low would start to sink after T168, but might now drag the coolest air with it.

Look at the differences between UKMO and GFS near Greenland at T144. Bound to have differing implications.

I note that the Arctic High is looking a bit stronger again on the GFS T168

But I admit that despite looking at 51 ECM ensembles from T144 to T360 and its various clusterings twice a day, 21 GEFS ensembles out to T384 four times a day, all the ops and the NOAA, I am still completely stumped as to where we are going after T120.

 

Edited November 11, 2017 by Man With Beard

[karyo]

38 minutes ago, mpkio2 said:

Me too Nick.

Again, I can't see why some think UKMO is bad, seeing how the low in the Atlantic is still sending up WAA over the UK to the pole and build a high over Scandy. I think its a longer route to cold, but if the low dives south as a high builds, we SHOULD still be in business.

The long road to cold should always be avoided unless it is the only road. The longer it takes the more things can go wrong.

The 12z GFS doesn't go the UKMO route. It has a weaker Atlantic block than the 6z but somehow the northwesterly at the end of next week delivers colder uppers to the UK.