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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Clear and Frosty/Snow Showers
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5

20th November 2016 at Ladybower  Reservoir in the Peak District.Could we have the same this year?

FC3E3015-A2D2-481C-B940-66154B800B8A.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GFS18z is again a bit of a west based run and as such takes the long route however the blocking to the north even in the higher resolution timeframe is emmense with the jet well south. . 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I have been intrigued by the modelling of the greeny ridge over recent days. On occasions it's been marked as per tonight's eps and others it's looked much flatter. Indeed the NOAA cpc chart looks flatter but it covers  a week period. there is the chance that the greeny ridge could be cut off with the jet running underneath - that would promote a flatter look to the output. 

Yes indeed. This is another serious contender from the current set-up.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

As expected, some serious amplification towards Greenland tonight on the clusters

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017110912_300.

Are we going to see the 00Z up the euro ridge again, though??

Edited by Man With Beard
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Still not feeling the love for the trough pushing through like the ECM & GFS ~ 156

Still going with the blocking ridge NNE out of france - poss linking into the Svalbard high-

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Still not feeling the love for the trough pushing through like the ECM & GFS ~ 156

Still going with the blocking ridge NNE out of france - poss linking into the Svalbard high-

S

 

Like pert 11 Steve Murr??

405A28E2-DAAC-475D-B602-F373527D25D3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

The GFS control run is quite similar to the ECM. Be nice to see that low further south east in future runs.

gens-0-1-336.png

ECM1-240-1.gif

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes take that & run to the bank!

As an Irishman, I hope the bank is closed!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Interesting ensembles on the 18z, we barely got down to -5 on the 12z, there are some far colder runs in there in the later stages on the 18z suite, and more of the lil old snow symbols too.

 

Manchester & London.

graphe_ens3-1.gif

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Runs getting colder towards the end - but don't be fooled, the route to cold does not look straightforward. Many of these end up biting the third or fourth cherry despite apparently looking an apple in the face...

IMG_0221.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The 18z GEFS are an unexpected bonus, a few flatliners in there - I move the definition of flatliners up from -10c across a number of days to around -6 to -8c at this time of year because its harder to achieve lower and easier to achieve convection with warmer seas, although not guaranteed snow due to the aforementioned warmer seas, still a good possibility, ECM ens also better than expexted in graph form so a late boost to send us off to bed with after a bizarre and nervy day.

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

The EPS46 just isn"t seeing a prolonged or strong - NAO. The control is giving brief cold shots, but nothing prolonged. The mean is so weak after day 13 I'm not sure it is worth anything without being able to see the 51 members.

Based on the 0z from yesterday, which was different from the 12z.

If someone was hoping for a strong signal, the EPS46 is not the place to seek it.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

A poor GFS 0z run with a monster low causing all the problems and the net result is a horrid west based -NAO.

Must admit, my hopes are just beginning to fade a little now a west based -NAO would be a real kick -a snapshot of gfs0z-

GFSOPEU00_222_1.png

Prssure remains too high to our south and we end up with Atlantic gunk.

Fingers crossed EC and Exeter keep the faith.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

This is for from nalid still lots of changes to come over next few days meto are going for cold and some snow in some places i have just posted this chart 9 days out this chart will look very different nerer the time maybe with a pressure build to the north east...

D70F56D8-0C00-410B-AF2F-3DA5802C40B5.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Mmmmm, things certainly seem to be getting watered down as each day goes by. 

This is normal (apart from a few notable occasions - ian browns Wtf moment springs to mind)

anyway, one main difference is the euro heights struggling to hang on more than modelled - this is standard fare from the modelling and was pointed out by a few over the past week. The main action was never likely to occur over nw Europe until after the 21 and the ec op and high res eps are just in that timeframe now 

the gefs higher res still needs till the back end of the weekend to get there  !

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I'm not going to go into any detail vis the ecm run merely to say it also has a wet and windy note forthe end of next week so three relevant charts.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.3a7900b08de4571dee7b9363109d7d25.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.081db06850594954811acd8cfc41465b.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.1829fc3de0b0b6ff00443a20bb29f1ad.png

and

ecm_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.fbee194612c0b4754d88bf3316486443.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just checking the calendar...Mmmmm November 10th, winter 3 weeks away..:wink: plenty of interesting output and tons of time for wintry upgrades. :-)

Oh absolutely. No sweat at all ☺️ I would normally be happy for some cold anticyclonic weather as we approach Dec but after the last few winters I am hoping for something a little more exciting than that. Does anyone have any info on the back end of the latest ec46?

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

We could have worse looking D10 charts.....

imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9e9904E5A4-1907-4DEF-A94B-F3758C3406CC.thumb.png.ca7b8ba2bffcaf30f6a89292c8d7ddc4.png

The trouble is though these charts are sticking at day 10. We really need to see them come down to day 9, 8, 7 etc. This hasn't happened over the last couple of days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

GFS continues with a North of West flow into the run.

viewimage.thumb.png.c4c91930c213a9e507020c55065776c2.pngviewimage-1.thumb.png.6a4bcae5d3309ec9467cac306ec3f94d.pngviewimage-2.thumb.png.9888c4ca7b18f9fd6d277d1528a6f830.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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