Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Northern Sky]

Bonkers NH profile on the end of the GFS again. It must be a strong signal to keep returning like it has over the last few runs. Tbh if the NH profile looks anything similar towards mid/late November and we don't get any cold from it then I think we should all give up and join a knitting forum or something.  Lots of chilly if not cold weather on offer before then, which is for me is great in November. Let's hope it leads to something even better.

[bluearmy]

the solution for our part of the NH days (11-15 ) looks like being tough to predict whilst the potential for a deep system moving in off the atlantic around day 10 persists. even if there is a very conducive macro pattern to deliver cold in that period, this low will prove troublesome to the modelling. if it disappears from the agenda within a few days then fine but if it persists then we will struggle to get a handle on what is likely for our part of the NH, even with good agreement on what is happening elsewhere.   

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the solution for our part of the NH days (11-15 ) looks like being tough to predict whilst the potential for a deep system moving in off the atlantic around day 10 persists. even if there is a very conducive macro pattern to deliver cold in that period, this low will prove troublesome to the modelling. if it disappears from the agenda within a few days then fine but if it persists then we will struggle to get a handle on what is likely for our part of the NH, even with good agreement on what is happening elsewhere.   

Agreed blue..although clearly Exeter are fairly confident of a cold spell as they are now mentioning snow in their MRF...as far as im concerned the NWP continues to promote heaps of high lat blocking...i fully expect to see some real eye candy in the coming days ..:-)

[Paul_1978]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed blue..although clearly Exeter are fairly confident of a cold spell as they are now mentioning snow in their MRF...as far as im concerned the NWP continues to promote heaps of high lat blocking...i fully expect to see some real eye candy in the coming days ..:-)

Very true - when you look at the AO forecast, NAO forecast, easterly QBO, the La Niña situation, as well at the Met Office longer range output, then surely it isn't going to be long before we start seeing some realistic eye candy in a shorter time frame. 

Edited November 8, 2017 by Paul_1978
Typo

[Singularity]

Well, ECM is a zillion times more amplified than GFS across the Atlantic as of day 8... 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/192_mslp500_arc.png?cb=784

The deep low GFS keeps powering across looks to get stuck west of a Mid-Atlantic ridge on this run, and so it should help the blocking to the N/NW rather than interfere with it

[snowray]

Got to laugh sometimes, ECM such a party pooper. PV shot to pieces, and we get the old blow torch!

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Got to laugh sometimes, ECM such a party pooper. PV shot to pieces, and we get the old blow torch!

Wait for the undercut at 240

Edit: There it is

High Pressure retrogressing towards Greenland, low pressure going underneath, low pressure into Central Southern Europe. The next frame would be a Steve Murr "boom" chart.

Edited November 8, 2017 by Daniel Smith

[snowray]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Wait for the undercut at 240

Yes fingers crossed aye Daniel.

[Dancerwithwings]

I'm liking the look of this with HP to the Northeast of the UK and the low sinking south

Edited November 8, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[booferking]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Got to laugh sometimes, ECM such a party pooper. PV shot to pieces, and we get the old blow torch!

Greeny its going for Greeny i tell yea.

 

Just now, snowray said:

Yes fingers crossed aye Daniel.

 

[-uksnow-]

Jaw dropping negative NAO here. Simply incredible chart,  cool days and frosty nights, and whats that lurking to drop down to the north...

[Allseasons-Si]

Erm!!!,WOW,i want that to come off

lows to the south propping up the heights to our north,then retrogress up to Greenland then BANG the floodgates will open.

Edited November 8, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Snowy L]

2 minutes ago, -uksnow- said:

Jaw dropping negative NAO here. Simply incredible chart,  cool days and frosty nights, and whats that lurking to drop down to the north...

Surely not a repeat of this

 

 

[Dancerwithwings]

4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I'm liking the look of this with HP to the Northeast of the UK and the low sinking south

And now joining up with the Greenland HP

[snowray]

As things stand its the usual places, Italy, Balkans, Greece that gets the cold. Nothing set in stone of course at D10, everything a bit further North would be nice or will we have to take our chances with round two?

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Snowy L said:

Surely not a repeat of this

 

 

That is just what i have explained in my latest post,looks very similar indeedy

[feb1991blizzard]

Strange the criticism of the ECM 240, just woke up from a kip, its an absolute snorter _ 10/10

[mulzy]

ECM FI is good, very good actually.

[Jonan92]

Do we have recent historical maps similar to the ECM chart at 240t? I can't remember such a desintegrated vortex

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Surely not a repeat of this

 

 

Love that to happen...

[Met4Cast]

I've just borrowed Nicks crayons for a second.

Low pressure to the North of the UK will head South/South-Eastwards, high pressure will shift North-Westwards towards and over Greenland and the cold air over Central Europe will push East towards the UK. Basically identical to the 2010 gif posted above.

Of course, it'll all change on the next run, but this chart is about as good as we can expect.

[Frosty.]

The early daffs would love this on the Ecm 12z this evening..almost summery charts!

[Allseasons-Si]

If we could cut the 2 off the 240 then we will be laughing

i am keeping a level head cos the gefs mean shunts the low further west in the atlantic and then we are on the wrong side of cold.

[Mucka]

JMA 192

 

ECM and JMA basically have the "Scandi" ridge much further West than GFS, building through Western Europe.

With so many moving parts and no real consistency it is difficult to make projections but one would expect the ridge modelled further West would ultimately more likely result in a Northerly flow while the one further East would more likely result an Easterly due to final likely placement of any block and undercutting low pressure.

 

So either  a strong Atlantic block/Greenland high or a Muir sausage seem like the two competing outcomes currently.

If that's the case it is chocolate cake or Cheese cake with just an outside chance of getting stale biscuit crumbs. What terrible analogy!

 

Edited November 8, 2017 by Mucka

[EML Network]

well it's nice to finally be back here after having been away for over a year I think.

Things really do seem to be shaping up for a far more interesting winter than we've had in a long while and it's no surprise to me at least that this is coinciding with a decline in sunspot activity. 

Anyhow, thought I would throw my pennies worth in re the ECM..

If that rolled on I don't think many of us would be best pleased, the High to our East would sink and the winds would swing around to a direct southerly and the low to our South West would roll over the high and reset the Atlantic. 

It's easy to look at charts and imagine what you want to see evolving, but you can't always do that you have to look at the frames previous to see the likely evolution. 

It's an interesting end to the ECM, but I prefer the GFS evolution as it keeps us in the game.

 

Still it's all way too far out to invest any thoughts into, if there's one thing I've learn't over the past decade on this site, it's that when it comes to winter you really can't get yourself excited about anything beyond 144 ..well you can if you want to, but be prepared to be let down more often than not. 

 

great to be back with something worth discussing for once