Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Allseasons-Si]

Yep!!!,going under and look at that block in the arctic,weather porn at it's best at the mo

the gfs is very consistant at giving these charts out,what's not to get exited about

gone under

OMFG,that's 2010 esk

I'VE JUST FELL OFF THE FENCE

 

 

Edited November 6, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[tight isobar]

Utter madness into 'latter frames'..

But the signal cannot be ignored!!

Some text book blocking ..and a seriously pummeled pv(polar vortex)..

And ample evolutions for opening doors for further blocks -setting up now!

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep!!!,going under and look at that block in the arctic,weather porn at it's best at the mo

the gfs is very consistant at giving these charts out,what's not to get exited about

gone under

 

The GFS 12Z in FI is very, very similar to a lot of runs on the ECM ensembles this morning - not a million miles away from the control run.

Still a long long countdown to go. ECM ensembles have been pretty steady for 5 days now, but another 5 days until we get into the slightly more reliable.

And of course it needs to be ultra-perfect to produce November snow. The GFS doesn't get cold enough until at least D16:

[Summer Sun]

A light covering of snow for higher parts of Scotland towards the end of GFS

This then moves south into northern England right at the end as the air gets that bit colder

[bobbydog]

and another easterly in F.I.....

[knocker]

This evening's gfs is whipping the wave a little further south Saturday before the amplification and the northerly with wintry showers. Profuse apologies for posting something in a realistic time frame.

[carinthian]

Both GFS and UKMO bring a cold Remembrance Sunday to the British Isles. All in the reliable time span. Arctic sourced air mass sweeping south should bring some of you the first wintry showers of the season .

C

Edited November 6, 2017 by carinthian

[Man With Beard]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

This evening's gfs is whipping the wave a little further south Saturday before the amplification and the northerly with wintry showers. Profuse apologies for posting something in a realistic time frame.

You forgot to report the heavy snow in the Faroes, come on, get a grip

[bluearmy]

Maybe time to say that arctic ridges are funny old things and the cold evolution  currently on the table is very reliant on the behaviour of one of these - hard to watch without getting too excited but for a few days probably the best policy .......

[oasis]

To my eyes, gfs ensemble mean at 10 days better on 12z than on 6z. Stronger looking high pressure over arctic.

[oasis]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Maybe time to say that arctic ridges are funny old things and the cold evolution  currently on the table is very reliant on the behaviour of one of these - hard to watch without getting too excited but for a few days probably the best policy .......

Question I would ask, if this hypothetically happened something like shown on 12z run, is it 2 weeks too early? Maxes showing at 5-7 in south on 12z.

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, oasis said:

Question I would ask, if this hypothetically happened something like shown on 12z run, is it 2 weeks too early? Maxes showing at 5-7 in south on 12z.

Yes with those uppers for much of lowland England and Wales - however, get the pattern in and perhaps the uppers will be a bit lower. 2009 last week November delivered iirc 

[blizzard81]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes with those uppers for much of lowland England and Wales - however, get the pattern in and perhaps the uppers will be a bit lower. 2009 last week November delivered iirc 

Do you mean 2010?

[knocker]

The movement of the Canadian vortex a tad west and the dissipation of the trough orientated south east >Iceland has been indicated by more than one model very recently accompanied by positive anomalies in mid Atlantic and over Iceland. So still a NW upper flow and changeable weather, including some nasty northerly shots from transient systems, with temps generally a tad below average. But the stage is set for the Azores HP to make a move.

.

[mb018538]

Wow at that anomaly chart...virtually the whole pole with +ve anomalies!

[Scandinavian High.]

Charts looking good for cold but I’m keeping feet well on the ground after the big let downs we have had over the years .

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

The GFS 12Z in FI is very, very similar to a lot of runs on the ECM ensembles this morning - not a million miles away from the control run.

Still a long long countdown to go. ECM ensembles have been pretty steady for 5 days now, but another 5 days until we get into the slightly more reliable.

And of course it needs to be ultra-perfect to produce November snow. The GFS doesn't get cold enough until at least D16:

This is just one variation of many that may unfold or may not,still,the northern hemisphere looks nice on the latest

"upgrades"

[Allseasons-Si]

38 minutes ago, knocker said:

The movement of the Canadian vortex a tad west and the dissipation of the trough orientated south east >Iceland has been indicated by more than one model very recently accompanied by positive anomalies in mid Atlantic and over Iceland. So still a NW upper flow and changeable weather, including some nasty northerly shots from transient systems, with temps generally a tad below average. But the stage is set for the Azores HP to make a move.

.

That's 348 hrs away Knocker

nice chart though and not one +ve anomoly in the arctic polar regions.

[Had Worse]

The UK only has to get 5 numbers and two stars (76million -1 odds) to hit the jackpot.

Atleast from the current projections, we have got a valid ticket for the cold and snow draw with a fair few lines on it.

[Allseasons-Si]

And the big three at 144 hrs,the gfs is more amplified of the three.

 

[lassie23]

We have been here before with model output winter eye candy ,they can flip just like that, my advise is keep calm and don't start dreaming of snow......yet Where's my snow shovel.

[snowbunting]

 Can anyone remember when the cold signal started to appear on the Nov 2010 models? I remember going for a walk in Sleat, Skye early Nov thinking the switch between autumn/winter had turned really quickly. A bit like this year. I know many are still thinking it will turn to atlantic onslaught but looking at these models they all seem to be singing from a similar hymm sheet. 

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's 348 hrs away Knocker

nice chart though and not one +ve anomoly in the arctic polar regions.

To be precise Allseasons 9.5-14.5 days away and of course everyone will put it in the context of previous cross model anomalies so not to be viewed in isolation. And I believe Phil posted something along these lines earlier.

Edited November 6, 2017 by knocker

[Mucka]

Very similar theme to GFS, strong Arctic and Russian blocking with low pressure into central/Eastern Europe.

Ideally the pattern would be tad further West but if we can get into this sort of position the chances of some cold second half of November should be good.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Very similar theme to GFS, strong Arctic and Russian blocking with low pressure into central/Eastern Europe.

Ideally the pattern would be tad further West but if we can get into this sort of position the chances of some cold second half of November should be good.

Looks like a strong PV building over Greenland on that run..