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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
52 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Good ol Friday pub run ............

 

btw, I say it  every November  but you really should look at fi on the NH profile at this time of year to get the most fun! 

Looks good, but on top of it all there is this for the same timeframe

npst30.png

Vortex looks to be tightening

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

And just to illustrate the different interpretations in these fluid patterns the ecm make makes much more of the low scooting around the Azores high at the end of next week.We don't want this to materialize as you could be looking at gusts in excess of 80kts over Scotland.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.b2ac2c6ad24f34f7013eb9d2bed75b60.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Looks good, but on top of it all there is this for the same timeframe

npst30.png

Vortex looks to be tightening

It certainly does Crewe. currently the strongest flow very high up is tended to our south but unless we can have a trop/strat disconnect, (which has occurred in the past), we will doubtless suffer the consequences eventually (without some helpful wave breaking which is also possible). It's not a done deal by any means. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Thanks for all the above model-interpretations, guys...I'll keep me eyes peeled for a 'wintry showroom' or two...?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Way too early to say with any certainty but there are increasing signs of a cold and probably mainly dry end to late Nov/early Dec. Ec46, cfs and meto seem to be going for this. 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

i'm liking the big siberian high at the end of the 06z

gfsnh-0-372.thumb.png.feee57c5bee67f66fa27e6d388bec10d.png

a strong siberian high can be a key component of colder winters in europe.

lets see more of this...:wink:

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Way too early to say with any certainty but there are increasing signs of a cold and probably mainly dry end to late Nov/early Dec. Ec46, cfs and meto seem to be going for this. 

Ensembles ebbing and flowing on this as one would expect, but I note on this morning's ECM ensembles that there is no appetite for a "zonal on steroids" situation between D10-D15 at least in the N Atlantic (apart from briefly at the start of the period). A UK High seems the best guess for D10 based on the clusters (and I emphasis "guess" because there are a few variants on the positioning of the high, one of which allows a brief unsettled phase). Further out than that, many options open including ones that disrupt the Atlantic sufficiently to put us in a colder, drier situation. As always, all subject to change!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Ensembles ebbing and flowing on this as one would expect, but I note on this morning's ECM ensembles that there is no appetite for a "zonal on steroids" situation between D10-D15 at least in the N Atlantic (apart from briefly at the start of the period). A UK High seems the best guess for D10 based on the clusters (and I emphasis "guess" because there are a few variants on the positioning of the high, one of which allows a brief unsettled phase). Further out than that, many options open including ones that disrupt the Atlantic sufficiently to put us in a colder, drier situation. As always, all subject to change!

That'll do for me - so long as it's not rampaging westerlies, win, rain, strong jet, euro high....your usual autumn tripe for these parts, then I'm happy.

It's actually been very un-zonal and dry here so far this autumn, and looks like continuing for a  while longer yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
5 hours ago, bluearmy said:

It certainly does Crewe. currently the strongest flow very high up is tended to our south but unless we can have a trop/strat disconnect, (which has occurred in the past), we will doubtless suffer the consequences eventually (without some helpful wave breaking which is also possible). It's not a done deal by any means. 

Yeah but it does look quite slack in the N. Atlantic region. This has been enough in the past to see high pressure in those slack regions in the troposphere, if the strat and troposphere are in sync.

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

Yes, IIRC GLOSEA long ranger was showing strong zonality for this autumn, so I'm taking the DJF prediction with a little salt.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Long term possibilities look good but in a week's time we are basically in bartlett type conditions.

Of course far better to get it now rather than in a month's time..

Would be nice to get GPs thoughts....

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
26 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Long term possibilities look good but in a week's time we are basically in bartlett type conditions.

Of course far better to get it now rather than in a month's time..

Would be nice to get GPs thoughts....

no we're not, - a bartlett is a stubborn high pressure system centred over europe. 

however, yet again, the later stages of the run show a big strong siberian high setting up. 

gfsnh-0-360-2.thumb.png.c5a7fcfb218d93c1fbdd30b9b7bc0b91.png

a  very big 'building block' towards a cold winter....

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
12 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

no we're not, - a bartlett is a stubborn high pressure system centred over europe. 

however, yet again, the later stages of the run show a big strong siberian high setting up. 

gfsnh-0-360-2.thumb.png.c5a7fcfb218d93c1fbdd30b9b7bc0b91.png

a  very big 'building block' towards a cold winter....

Certainly the output you post doesn't show a Bartlett High at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

12Z is basically low after low - not a chance in hell of any Atlantic retrogression with that blasted Atlantic in overdrive.

SE likely escaping most of the wet stuff but it all looks depressingly familiar .

It is a shame because i do feel the NH profile is ripe for retrogression, we just cant seem to see an end to these lows exiting the Easte seaboard, i do hope this isnt going to be a sign of things to come!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
31 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

no we're not, - a bartlett is a stubborn high pressure system centred over europe. 

however, yet again, the later stages of the run show a big strong siberian high setting up. 

gfsnh-0-360-2.thumb.png.c5a7fcfb218d93c1fbdd30b9b7bc0b91.png

a  very big 'building block' towards a cold winter....

Yeah, I don't see bartlett at all.. The lows appear to be mainly west to east but also at times on a slight NW to SE trajectory so I would say a transition from cool to colder weather at times

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
27 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Certainly the output you post doesn't show a Bartlett High at all.

 

4 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Yeah, I don't see bartlett at all.. The lows appear to be mainly west to east but also at times on a slight NW to SE trajectory so I would say a transition from cool to colder weather at times

i think he's referring to this-

gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.f65c1a7a691535f8d6a275303e24e2ac.png

which is just the azores high getting shunted about for a few days. it also shows a very disjointed trop vortex.

or a cat... depending how you look at it...

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Probably worth saying that the zonality from the GFS is out past day 8 and could be worse. Beforehand we get largely dry and cloudy weather (probably milder than average). After day 8 we do get some amplification however a series of secondary lows form preventing the real cool air making it south of the Scottish border before the next low arrives. A mobile flow albeit not terribly mild. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

We have a classic situation on our hands for Fri-Sat next week; GFS flattest with the ridge-trough combination, ECM sharpest, and UKMO at halfway house.

The impact on wind direction is not huge; from WSW to WNW, but the difference in airmass across the UK for Saturday daytime is more significant; tropical maritime versus polar maritime. By Sunday the resulting 2-metre temperature differences amplify to some 4-5*C.

Essentially it's a quite mild, cloud-laden WSW flow with a bit of rain in the north, or more or less a repeat of this weekend's conditions but without the mass of rain across England during the early hours. Having been out on a nice walk with various convective cloud formations lit very nicely by the low sun, I know which one I'd prefer...!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Nothing very surprising with this evening's ecm det run. I haven't as yet seen this evening's EPS  five day anomaly but this is illustrated quite well by comparing it with this mornings

ecm_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.b40759785c44efae61e9c543e283621f.pngecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.2d4dce79f7e3d6a578fded814f31a0e8.png

And the temp contour and anomaly

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.0198f934fa47c2575cc5e74d766a9b0f.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

npsh500.216.png npsh500.240.png

 

So the sharper weekend pattern has further knock-on effects in the ECM 12z as a trough is able to drop down across Italy during the same period that the blocking across Asia is becoming very extensive. This has interesting consequences - shame they're way out at 9-10 days range and with the manifestation of the required preceding pattern in a week's time a subject of debate.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
46 minutes ago, Singularity said:

npsh500.216.png npsh500.240.png

 

So the sharper weekend pattern has further knock-on effects in the ECM 12z as a trough is able to drop down across Italy during the same period that the blocking across Asia is becoming very extensive. This has interesting consequences - shame they're way out at 9-10 days range and with the manifestation of the required preceding pattern in a week's time a subject of debate.

The eps are now firmly into neg AO territory as we head through week 2 as they catch up with the gefs. Also a slightly neg NAO at the same time. My take on the NH is that the vortex is firmly the other side of nw Greenland  and there is plenty of room for heights to build in areas which could bring cold to nw Europe . Whilst we are a good week away from December at the back mid of the extended output, we could be in far worse places from a coldie perspective. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
10 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Way too early to say with any certainty but there are increasing signs of a cold and probably mainly dry end to late Nov/early Dec. Ec46, cfs and meto seem to be going for this. 

Is that the same Ec46 that was going for a cold Easterly for last Dec ,and we all know how that turned out.

I don't understand why anyone takes any notice of these seasonal models,they all have proven it's still impossible to forecast seasons in advance.Waste of time and money.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 hours ago, Singularity said:

We have a classic situation on our hands for Fri-Sat next week; GFS flattest with the ridge-trough combination, ECM sharpest, and UKMO at halfway house.

The impact on wind direction is not huge; from WSW to WNW, but the difference in airmass across the UK for Saturday daytime is more significant; tropical maritime versus polar maritime. By Sunday the resulting 2-metre temperature differences amplify to some 4-5*C.

Essentially it's a quite mild, cloud-laden WSW flow with a bit of rain in the north, or more or less a repeat of this weekend's conditions but without the mass of rain across England during the early hours. Having been out on a nice walk with various convective cloud formations lit very nicely by the low sun, I know which one I'd prefer...!

The overall pattern remains the same, and for this reason I'd be inclined to go with the sharper trough scenario as shown by ECM this evening than GFS, very much a rinse and repeat performance of conditions this week for next week. Polar maritime air predominating in the main - so another chilly carbon copy of this weekend most likely next weekend.

Longer term - perhaps a more zonal flatter pattern for the following week, but tentative signals this will be temporary as greater forces take hold, i.e. heights to the NE..

Quite a seasonal November could be on the cards, not the wet zonal onslaught of some recent years, mind last year bucked the trend. I don't see much stormy weather at all for the foreseeable - interesting to note how the hurricane season has quickly run out of steam..

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