Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Long range modelling has always seemingly had a good handle on default 'zonal patterns' so confidence in this outcome should be higher. They tend to struggle more picking out patterns against the normal climatological mean. 

Agreed, to my eyes we are setting up for a zonal +NAO pattern, certainly for the next few weeks.

I should add thats not really an issue for me, id rather get it out the way now, trouble is, once the Atlantic goes up a gear, it rarely puts the brakes on, as we have seen for the last 3 or 4 'winters'.

Edited November 2, 2017 by northwestsnow

[cheshire snow]

After many years of disappointment and watching the GFS and ECM through out some 

Weather porn charts,until I see it in the METO Updates I wont believe any of the models.

All models are fun to watch and follow,but this year I will keep my excitement in

Check until the METO start getting interested.

C.S. 

[nick sussex]

Typical models as soon as we think they might displace the Azores high the GFS op now starts bringing this further east.

Its only when it hits the lower resolution output that the GFS then displaces it and then tries its best to deliver some interest.

There are however large differences upstream between the GFS and UKMO at T144hrs. The latter being more amplified .

 

 

Edited November 2, 2017 by nick sussex

[Daniel*]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed, to my eyes we are setting up for a zonal +NAO pattern, certainly for the next few weeks.

I should add thats not really an issue for me, id rather get it out the way now, trouble is, once the Atlantic goes up a gear, it rarely puts the brakes on, as we have seen for the last 3 or 4 'winters'.

It doesn’t look bad to me at all no ugly southwesterlies, the first half of November is looking pretty cool.

GFS 12z goes very wintry In the extended range but as useful as a chocolate teapot. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It doesn’t look bad to me at all no ugly southwesterlies, the first half of November is looking pretty cool.

GFS 12z goes very wintry In the extended range but as useful as a chocolate teapot. 

thats a nice chart  

[ICE COLD]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Long range modelling has always seemingly had a good handle on default 'zonal patterns' so confidence in this outcome should be higher. They tend to struggle more picking out patterns against the normal climatological mean. 

In a broad sense, the CFS and GLOSEA have been rock solid behind a +NAO winter for months. I struggle to see what will alter to change their prognosis. 

Hi Crewe 

Them long range models are terrible . I know most winters are mild and wet but even if it is going to be a cold winter or cold winter month then long range models would never pick it up this far out . When was the last time a long range model picked out cold spell /cold month and got it right . I can't remember one . We struggle to predict the weather 7 days out let alone months in advance . So everyone chill it's only just November . Cold spells can just come out of nowhere and usually do . 

Cheers 

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Hi Crewe 

Them long range models are terrible . I know most winters are mild and wet but even if it is going to be a cold winter or cold winter month then long range models would never pick it up this far out . When was the last time a long range model picked out cold spell /cold month and got it right . I can't remember one . We struggle to predict the weather 7 days out let alone months in advance . So everyone chill it's only just November . Cold spells can just come out of nowhere and usually do . 

Cheers 

One such case sticks out in my mind (and it was the last genuinely cold and snowy period)....March 2013. The CFS saw that coming from two months away. Nailed it. Not sure whether the GLOSEA saw the same signals as wasn't really checking that model at the time.

These sort of charts were being churned out regularly leading up to the event, with HP shown somewhere between Scandi and Greenland

At the moment we're seeing no such inclination from any long range model and it has been this way for months. 

Averaged CFS output produces this over D-J-F

Strongly +NAO and mirrors the GLOSEA almost down to a tee. Extrapolating from that modelling...best hopes are lee NW'lys if depressions track favourably to our E/NE.

Edited November 2, 2017 by CreweCold

[Man With Beard]

Latest ECM looks like producing better heights to the NE after T144

edit - got that wrong, though interesting weaknesses in the vortex by T192

Edited November 2, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Latest ECM looks like producing better heights to the NE after T144

edit - got that wrong, though interesting weaknesses in the vortex by T192

All aligned wrong for us.

Early cold pouring into NE USA as per usual which will only serve to fire the jet stream up. This is a recurrent theme of recent winters with an antagonistic response of pressure rising downstream across mainland Europe.

About as flat as you can get across the N Atlantic sector.

[Bruegelian]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

One such case sticks out in my mind (and it was the last genuinely cold and snowy period)....March 2013. The CFS saw that coming from two months away. Nailed it. Not sure whether the GLOSEA saw the same signals as wasn't really checking that model at the time.

These sort of charts were being churned out regularly leading up to the event, with HP shown somewhere between Scandi and Greenland

At the moment we're seeing no such inclination from any long range model and it has been this way for months. 

Hi CC, I would normally be down-spirited like you, with CFS and GLOSEA showing this signal (rock-solid as you say, and I think they are usually fairly good in verifying) -  but the strange thing is , if you watch Gavs weather vids you will know that the BCC and ECM seasonal models are going for a negative NAO winter - really quite different to CFS and GLOSEA. Indeed Gav P was saying that the professionals are 'scratching their heads' as far as he knows. So personally I'm not as despairing as I would normally be, and I think maybe this winter might suprise us somewhat. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Hi CC, I would normally be down-spirited like you, with CFS and GLOSEA showing this signal (rock-solid as you say, and I think they are usually fairly good in verifying) -  but the strange thing is , if you watch Gavs weather vids you will know that the BCC and ECM seasonal models are going for a negative NAO winter - really quite different to CFS and GLOSEA. Indeed Gav P was saying that the professionals are 'scratching their heads' as far as he knows. So personally I'm not as despairing as I would normally be, and I think maybe this winter might suprise us somewhat. 

The ECM seasonal went for a strongly -NAO winter last year.

That's all I'm saying. 

I'm not being 'down- spirited' at all. I'm merely pointing out where we are at right now and where we are *most likely* to be headed as we approach winter proper.

People have had digs at me for being negative in recent years but looking back in hindsight, the negativity was very very justified...

Edited November 2, 2017 by CreweCold

[Bruegelian]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM seasonal went for a strongly -NAO winter last year.

That's all I'm saying. 

But it wasn't too far off the mark - last winter was painfully close to being proper cold at times. There was a lot of HP around, just never "locked in" to our north.

[feb1991blizzard]

31 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

One such case sticks out in my mind (and it was the last genuinely cold and snowy period)....March 2013. The CFS saw that coming from two months away. Nailed it. Not sure whether the GLOSEA saw the same signals as wasn't really checking that model at the time.

These sort of charts were being churned out regularly leading up to the event, with HP shown somewhere between Scandi and Greenland

At the moment we're seeing no such inclination from any long range model and it has been this way for months. 

Averaged CFS output produces this over D-J-F

Strongly +NAO and mirrors the GLOSEA almost down to a tee. Extrapolating from that modelling...best hopes are lee NW'lys if depressions track favourably to our E/NE.

Even before that!  -  here is the average of the runs over a sustained period in December.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

But it wasn't too far off the mark - last winter was painfully close to being proper cold at times. There was a lot of HP around, just never "locked in" to our north.

High pressure was never even close to getting a foothold to our N. There was a mean mid latitude HP signature hauled up below a very strong circum- polar flow. 

 

[LRD]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Even before that!  -  here is the average of the runs over a sustained period in December.

I think CFSv2 is going for quite a cold November (I think) so let's see if it predicts a month ahead accurately before giving it 10 gold stars for a forecast 2-4 months out. I agree it doesn't look good though. Looking at the latest GFS, aside from the last few frames, it has the damn Azores High in the worst possible places. Again. It's relentless, especially in the autumn... but in the winter too to a lesser extent

 

Edited November 2, 2017 by LRD

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, LRD said:

I think CFSv2 is going for quite a cold November (I think)

Let's see.

[nick sussex]

I think before everyone starts booking the emergency trip to Lapland  even if you get an overall positIve NAO winter that doesn’t preclude some wintry weather.

Things can and do change and it’s only early November. 

 

[NeilN]

18 minutes ago, LRD said:

I think CFSv2 is going for quite a cold November (I think) so let's see if it predicts a month ahead accurately before giving it 10 gold stars for a forecast 2-4 months out. I agree it doesn't look good though. Looking at the latest GFS, aside from the last few frames, it has the damn Azores High in the worst possible places. Again. It's relentless, especially in the autumn... but in the winter too to a lesser extent

 

It's all guess and conjecture. As for the Azores High, can we ask Kim-Jong Un, Donald Trump or Mad May to fire missiles at it to stop it ruining our winter? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think before everyone starts booking the emergency trip to Lapland  even if you get an overall positIve NAO winter that doesn’t preclude some wintry weather.

Things can and do change and it’s only early November. 

 

Absolutely. 

Christmas Day 2004 is a good example of what can happen even in a generally +NAO set up. Couple of inches of snow here from an Irish Sea streamer that day. 

Perhaps worth noting that even with the +NAO signal, there are some runs which bring mean uppers a couple of degrees below average from the W/NW which perhaps hints at the potential for a colder version of zonality than we might usually expect. Higher ground of the N could do very well for snow even with a +NAO. 

Edited November 2, 2017 by CreweCold

[Bullseye]

53 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM seasonal went for a strongly -NAO winter last year.

That's all I'm saying. 

I'm not being 'down- spirited' at all. I'm merely pointing out where we are at right now and where we are *most likely* to be headed as we approach winter proper.

People have had digs at me for being negative in recent years but looking back in hindsight, the negativity was very very justified...

To be fair the CFS only last month was starting to hint at blocking through Dec and Jan but has now backtracked. We also had GLOSEA last winter constantly going for -NAO like ECM seasonal, last year was a disaster for all seasonal models from what I remember. Will be interesting to see seasonal models come end of Nov.

Edited November 2, 2017 by Bullseye

[mpkio2]

Well, it's 2nd November (My B-DAY, by the way ) and the prospect of colder weather (During Late-Autumn) is already setting in for us coldies on the internet.

So, like last year, I'm here to give my opinion and try to balance out what the models are showing (By balancing optimism and caution,) and see what the next few months might show for our small island.                                                                             And like last year, I said before anyone believes any one model, that cross-model agreement was necessary (In the grand scheme of things).

And where do we stand now? Well...

12z GFS 02/11/17 t120:

12z ECM 02/11/17 t120:

12z UKMO 02/11/17 t120:

All show the same theme, but with slight differences here and there. What we have though is a main lobe of the Vortex sitting some place in N.Canada, small heights in Scandi region, low in Europe and a cool W/NW floor into the UK (Cold zonality- it's better than warm weather, that's for sure ). It's also important to note that both ECM and UKMO are both in agreement by t144, against GFS and GEM in agreement at the same time.

So far, so good, IMO. I've seen a worse looking NH profile that's for sure. November is the month where the PV starts to strength and awaken, so it won't be any surprise if we start to see this - its normal. But if we can increase the chance of HLB setting up shop in the Arctic region, the better for our chances of cold.

Anyway, I'm happy to be back in full model viewing and can't wait for the Rollercoaster ride that is model watching to get into full swing!

P.S. Good to see some old favorites active on the forums!

 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

All aligned wrong for us.

Early cold pouring into NE USA as per usual which will only serve to fire the jet stream up. This is a recurrent theme of recent winters with an antagonistic response of pressure rising downstream across mainland Europe.

About as flat as you can get across the N Atlantic sector.

Let’s see what the ec46 shows later  tonight. Tuesdays didn’t sustain the east Canadian cold blast so Euro height rises never occurred as a consequence. Loathe to take much from that run but a repeat will raise an eyebrow ........

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

To be fair the CFS only last month was starting to hint at blocking through Dec and Jan but has now backtracked. We also had GLOSEA last winter constantly going for -NAO like ECM seasonal, last year was a disaster for all seasonal models from what I remember. Will be interesting to see seasonal models come end of Nov.

Did some mention it's the second of November, well that's right, my optimism with fingers crossed can wait..far to early ATM, also I've learnt over the years not to take much notice of what the CFSv2 output does, its the Yo Yo model in my eyes.....anyway all I want is the vortex to do one this year 

[Don]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

One such case sticks out in my mind (and it was the last genuinely cold and snowy period)....March 2013. The CFS saw that coming from two months away. Nailed it. Not sure whether the GLOSEA saw the same signals as wasn't really checking that model at the time.

These sort of charts were being churned out regularly leading up to the event, with HP shown somewhere between Scandi and Greenland

At the moment we're seeing no such inclination from any long range model and it has been this way for months. 

 

Worth noting the CFS correctly forecast the cold winter of 2009/10 and December 2010 also.

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

Worth noting the CFS correctly forecast the cold winter of 2009/10 and December 2010 also.

Worth noticing the CFS is a lot of tripe the times it’s depicted cold nirvana charts months ahead almost every single winter at one point. As good as at random drawing something out of a hat sometimes luck plays in its favour. ECM seasonal/GLOSEA is far more superior of course no model is infallible and last winter tested these models like no other.