Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

It will be a bit blowy:shok:

gfs-0-192.png?12gfs-14-192.png?12

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

A beautiful looking gfs run  certainly more akin to the time of year . a potent northerly. Then way out in low res  an easterly of sorts with fronts approaching from the west. All in all more seasonal 

Edited by weirpig
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes indeed after the balmy warmth of early Autumn modelling now showing a change to more seasonal temperatures as the first cold plunge heads south courtesy of the Atlantic high and a sharpening Scandinavian trough.

Day 5 charts from GFS and UKMO in pretty good agreement

gfsnh-1-120.png?12UN120-21.GIF?24-18

we get a glancing blow but with the high toppling in after and that pool of colder air over us we are set for maximums to drop by several degrees from the weekend some colder nights with some frosts around.

Eurasian snow cover prospects looking good over the next week or so too as that Arctic cold pool heads well south of 60N over there.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

OK.

So it's +252

First real chill for the N Yorks moors.

ukmintemp.thumb.png.6a4ff61988f95d16b021deb2205b42cb.png

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.44fd233213e6d8045398bc9949564c5b.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
2 minutes ago, DJ RY said:

Not weather related......

Hi guys how do I turn the email notifications off on here please. My inbox has loads of Netweather Community Forum emails, many thanks in advance.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/notifications/options/

You should be able to disable them on the above link

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

interesting charts for this side of the pond where i am...looks like we could go from +20c to -20c in matter of days at the start of November 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm this evening (what I've seen of it) appears to be very similar to the midnight which I didn't see at all until now.

It has the expected progression of the high pressure around the cut off upper low to the south with trough then swinging south east around it into Scandinavia by Sunday initiating what becomes a cool northerly as the ridge moves east in it's wake. Quite a widespread air frost Monday morning.

But then it breaks ranks somewhat and the next trough that emanates from N. Canada dissects the Atlantic high pressure and briefly phases with out cut off low to the south and thus by Wednesday 00 we have a surface low west of Ireland with the associated fronts, and rain, orientated Ireland to Scotland. These dissipate against the Euro high and the low drifts south leaving the UK in a col with the main trough west of Norway and high pressure once again surging in mid Atlantic. This is all very precarious and really next week is still pending

ecm_z500a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.aee013b864dd18f0a2493e9b32d6b0ab.pngecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.53241b49f4219a0c2faf56de7f541425.png

Edit

Apropos nothing at all really but just to note the 100mb pattern replicates the 500mb quite well with this fairly diffuse N/S vortex

100.thumb.gif.764da46409b142b3c71c5645eb9caa49.gif

Edited by knocker
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
17 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

Edit

Apropos nothing at all really but just to note the 100mb pattern replicates the 500mb quite well with this fairly diffuse N/S vortex

100.thumb.gif.764da46409b142b3c71c5645eb9caa49.gif

Apologies Mods for posting a question here, but do you think it would be reasonable to suggest that this shows hat the vortex is as yet fairly weak? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Apologies Mods for posting a question here, but do you think it would be reasonable to suggest that this shows hat the vortex is as yet fairly weak? 

Well it's reasonable in the lower Strat and the trop. but looking quite nice higher up Apologies for dragging the thread off topic :shok:

10.thumb.gif.6887a97ef33afac60e8c0fda6af7b2b6.gif1.thumb.gif.44d24f63d3fec11cb34648ba37ec0f0d.gif

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models continue to show a marked pattern change as we end the month, courtesy of a shift in the jetstream position allowing mid atlantic ridging to build, with cooler air filtering down from the north by the weekend, nothing particularly cold, but much more seasonal temps, with chance of some frost and fog.

Next week - some variance between ECM and GFS, the former doesn't know where to position itself really, GFS holding firm with significant warm air advection up west side of Greenland and conversely significant cold air advection down from the north across N Sea and into scandi producing a potent northerly. My hunch is the cold shot will go just a bit too far to the east to have any real impact, but instead we will see a cold high surface down from the NW and North east.

Developments generally look conducive to a marked sharp scandi trough, never a bad thing if you are after sustained cold polar shots..

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Long story short - The ecm is an absolute dogs dinner of a yawnfest. Especially when compared to the gfs

It seems to be like a stuck record at 240,it's been the same on the last few runs showing the same scenario:nonono:

although the 8-14 day 500mb outlook has been stuck too but i would take it over the ecm:)

814day.03.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
45 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Apologies Mods for posting a question here, but do you think it would be reasonable to suggest that this shows hat the vortex is as yet fairly weak? 

I really couldn't care less about the state of the vortex right now. It is too early in the season and now is the time of year that more often than not the vortex grows some balls. I will be much more engaged in all things vortex in about a month's time from now. That's when it will count for the winter ahead. 

Edited by blizzard81
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It seems to be like a stuck record at 240,it's been the same on the last few runs showing the same scenario:nonono:

although the 8-14 day 500mb outlook has been stuck too but i would take it over the ecm:)

814day.03.gif

Indeed. I hate using the following word but I cannot think of a better one to describe the ecm over the last 24 hours - meh! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. I hate using the following word but I cannot think of a better one to describe the ecm over the last 24 hours - meh! 

Whatever happens we will surely find out next week,if it goes pete tong then so be it,plenty of time yet,but i did seem to recall this time last year when i said that we are in a better position this time only to have glancing blows and Europe got the better of it,it was such a close call last year,i am not going to say it this year lol, but with lower solar activity and a e-qbo i favour a better winter,,,,hopefully.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Whatever happens we will surely find out next week,if it goes pete tong then so be it,plenty of time yet,but i did seem to recall this time last year when i said that we are in a better position this time only to have glancing blows and Europe got the better of it,it was such a close call last year,i am not going to say it this year lol, but with lower solar activity and a e-qbo i favour a better winter,,,,hopefully.

As we do every year, we can only hope lol. I base many things on the past. In terms of winters, I have found that we tend to go four or five mild winters with  minimal snowfall only to be pleasantly surprised by the  following winter which reminds us what real snow looks like. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick glance at this evening's anomalies and the reason would appear to be quite apparent for the differences between the gfs and ecm det, runs.

Although there is pretty good upstream agreement on the significant amplification over N. America with the Alaskan ridge and WAA into the Arctic, cold trough down central N. America and twin, diffuse, vortex lobes there are still differences in the Atlantic on how to handle the high pressure and the trough to the south. Not forgetting also the orientation of the Scandinavian trough This could easily explain the trough popping SE in mid Atlantic on the det. run  I shouldn't really post the EPS chart but I feel a little license is allowed as the essential still isn't out yet  Bad day vis the ecm

eps_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.c66565d23cb4d5c972ef27fbab70e276.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.3751744e6857d966935a25657d221562.png610day_03.thumb.gif.75084c9c6bbe2f9e5833afcc4a040fee.gif

Edited by knocker
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

Are there signs of the models getting closer to agreement for early November?

ECM

image.thumb.gif.bdc9f06984d7c7839597f27c4859e6ce.gif   image.thumb.gif.25a7c8a32e46078f8b6802d2d688b9c2.gif

GFS

image.thumb.png.9e8cae98b804e48a676641a868754b9b.png   image.thumb.png.53970e04f5237edad6c65088644e1d63.png

GEM

image.thumb.png.bb6d6a448b3e664e2146ebc5371b6c78.png . image.thumb.png.97a7b30fa29c5cd89e8069cfb7efcc5e.png

Definitely looks colder for everyone in these charts - might be windy as well but the best thing about it is that it should put a stop to the incessant rain we've endured for the last six weeks in this part of the world.  I'm fed up with soggy weather and a cold snap with crisp mornings is the perfect forecast at this time of year.

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Galway

What appears to be interesting is that the polar vortex is in disarray. If it continues this way, we could be in for fun times, cold and snow lovers that is.

Edited by Windchime72
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
22 hours ago, carinthian said:

This chart from UKMO sort of ties in with our first significant snow portal forecast of the season. Moderate snowfall in the Eastern Alps on Sunday night with the arrival of a Arctic Front. Temps by Monday morning will be -1c at 1000m and -9c at 2300m. A bit too early for the snow portal service to provide amounts. The forecast indicates a temporary Arctic air mass invasion but significant. The direct flow to be cut off but with likely prospect of a NWly maritime flow for a while with higher temps but cold enough again for significant snowfall at high elevation. All good news for the piste preparation work.

C

UKMOPEU00_120_1.png

Have our first snowfall forecast amounts from the fine mesh model we use for our location . The period Sun 6pm -Mon 6am... 27cm at 1750 absl, heaviest during this period . Snowfall will become moderate to light during the rest of Monday, more showery with cloud breaking. By Monday morning , freezing level will be at 750m. So looks like piste team will soon get to start on important base preparation with longer term lower temps expected as well which will help the process. Getting excited !

C

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

In the short term it looks a done deal for transition to cooler/perhaps colder shots via atlantic ridge placement. Dragging in north/north-westerly flow...

Medium term: perhaps a more defined notable shot' via sharpening of alignment introducing a more elongated northerly plunge countrywide!...

Some will argue' that-the tropospheric/stratospheric vortex(polar) being in disaray at such early stages is premature' for winter....

Personaly i could'nt like it any better atm..small waving dissallowing organisation at this particular juncture screams possibilites' at crucial winter point..... 

And northern hemisphercaly its easy to clasp' the pressure the beast is under.....

Long may that continue!!!!

gfsnh-0-360.png

gfseu-0-204 (1).png

gfseu-0-96.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...