Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[carinthian]

This chart from UKMO sort of ties in with our first significant snow portal forecast of the season. Moderate snowfall in the Eastern Alps on Sunday night with the arrival of a Arctic Front. Temps by Monday morning will be -1c at 1000m and -9c at 2300m. A bit too early for the snow portal service to provide amounts. The forecast indicates a temporary Arctic air mass invasion but significant. The direct flow to be cut off but with likely prospect of a NWly maritime flow for a while with higher temps but cold enough again for significant snowfall at high elevation. All good news for the piste preparation work.

C

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

13 hours ago, Daniel* said:

You’re not wrong. Well soil temps are much too high currently for settling snow away from northern uplands IMO a cool down between 1-2 weeks of anticyclonic weather with frost - preceding the main blast of cold air would be needed. I was just addressing Surrey dismissing the chance of snow in the south. It’s not quite too early but indeed earlier than we would preferably like. 

SST's are at their warmest in September and coldest in March in our part of the world but after all the recent ex tropical activity bringing very mild weather, the sea temperatures are still between 14-15C throughout the Bristol Channel. So we won't be expecting to see snow on the beaches of South Wales yet that's for sure lol, maybe by the end of November or December we might though, like 2010. 

*Sorry for the confusion guys I still can't get used to the way these posts work but originally I was trying to reply to a post about SST's how they seem to be higher in November than February but it won't let me instead added it on to this one which has nothing to do with SST's.* 

Edited October 24, 2017 by DJ RY

[blizzard81]

The ecm operator has finally got out of bed. The 00z run is slowly starting to run. 

[Summer Sun]

meteociel update on ECM

 

"Problem with ECMWF. Run 00Z with undetermined delay Problem at ECMWF. 00Z run is late."

 

[Newberryone]

Very amplified 00z ECM run overall with admittedly a rather potent but relatively short chilly snap occurring outside the reliable timeframe. Certainly no weather advisaries on any front for the foreseeable.

Edited October 24, 2017 by Newberryone

[booferking]

Here comes the payload.

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Here comes the payload.

ECM around the same timeframe

[tight isobar]

Someone' give the vortex some tramadol...

Its becoming a nervous wreck into the new month!!..

Alaskan-ridge...greets greeny high....

Would be a eye watering synoptic in the reliable!!!!....

Even @this stage!

Edited October 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[karlos1983]

Unfortunately although on the face of it this looks a good chart at 120

With nothing propping that HP up in the Med,it is only going to go one way.

 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Unfortunately although on the face of it this looks a good chart at 120

With nothing propping that HP up in the Med,it is only going to go one way.

 

With the punch load on the pv-looking in good stance' into november....

With heat flux into the pole(modeled)...

Its await the floodgates!!!!

-perhaps-...

All speculative atm -given-..

'However'...vast array of options for cold spillage!!!

[karlos1983]

Just now, tight isobar said:

With the punch load on the pv-looking in good stance' into november....

With heat flux into the pole(modeled)...

Its await the floodgates!!!!

-perhaps-...

All speculative atm -given-..

'However'...vast array of options for cold spillage!!!

yes agreed. I was commenting more on the 6-10D, long term I am much more optimistic. To be hones, I would rather wait a few more weeks anyway, when the NH is much colder and we can unleash some proper arctic air mass 

[weirpig]

The Gfs  certainly keeps us in a cold/cool airflow  and possibly the white stuff   although unlikely to settle  at this early stage.  a true taste of winter.   The ECM  not so good   

[MattTarrant]

Just to input a sense of humor and pretend this run will verify....

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Just to input a sense of humor and pretend this run will verify....

sure the labelling of those charts will go from humorous to mocking'us as the months go on 

Nice to see though 

[Man With Beard]

IMO, the best way to sum up model developments in the next ten days is by comparing the N Hemisphere profiles of ECM for T0 and T240:

  

The main story is a big shift of the vortex towards our side of the globe.

This means we are closer to cold shots from the north, and closer to a stormier type of weather. That's what I'm keeping in mind as November begins. More detail than that is best reserved to nearer the time.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

IMO, the best way to sum up model developments in the next ten days is by comparing the N Hemisphere profiles of ECM for T0 and T240:

  

The main story is a big shift of the vortex towards our side of the globe.

This means we are closer to cold shots from the north, and closer to a stormier type of weather. That's what I'm keeping in mind as November begins. More detail than that is best reserved to nearer the time.

And that coupled with the MetO's latest prognostications (a lot of settled weather with fog & frost) suggest that cold air might seep into Europe on quite a few occasions...cue the November Fog Index?

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

So the EC Monthly run, Monday edition, has been released (only released on a Monday and Thursday). I posted information about the long range climate drivers two pages ago. Now I am going to have a look at the most reliable (out of a pretty poor bunch) long range model there is.

 

This week's 500mb anomalies. You can see a fairly strong ridge to the SW, which sets up the jetstream to come across the U.K. and head southeast across Continental Europe. Then it makes way for troughing in Eastern Europe into Russia (which also happens to help Eurasian Snow Cover expansion, which is a important factor in winter).

 

Week 2 (Next Week) 500mb anomalies. Again a ridge exists near the UK, probably to the west. The UK is on the Eastern edge of this ridge. The trough over Eastern Europe strengthens and moves west, potentially dumping snow across Eastern Europe and the European Alps. EC46 Precipitation anomalies show drier than normal conditions for most of the UK, except North Scotland. The snow anomalies show somewhat higher than normal snowfall in parts of the Scottish Highlands, particularly to the far north. The temperature outlook is mostly neutral for this period.

Week 3 (Week after next week) 500mb anomalies. A ridge is over the Atlantic, near the UK, with the UK being on the ridge's northern boundary. Snow anomalies are neutral, same for temperature anomalies. Precipitation anomalies are wetter than normal in Northern Scotland, but drier than normal for rest of the UK.

Week 4 Ridging anomalies for Southern UK regions. The jetstream seems more going towards the ENE across the U.K, than the other earlier weeks (which were going more to the ESE) IMO. Precipitation anomalies show a wet UK, with most of the region under wetter than normal anomalies. Temperature and Snowfall anomalies are mostly neutral.

That is the EC Weekly model update. Hope you enjoyed that. All detail is IMO.

Thanks for that, great summary. I do recall last year that the actual weather was often the opposite of the Week 4 chart, so plenty for coldies to be cheerful about

[Sky Full]

Hmmm.  Seems a little busier in here than of late.  I wonder why.  Lets have a look and see....

    

   And this is only November 2nd!   Might need the winter woolies out for fireworks night.

Hands up everyone who believes this is really going to happen.  

Only me then?

Edited October 24, 2017 by Sky Full

[MR EXTREMES]

Seen this year in year out.

I'm staying on the fence but most certainly good chances of strat warming events.

Long over due for a cold shot although I feel the northerly could skip UK to go into Europe into Scandinavia eastwards.

Although east QBO makes a pretty good starting point.

Much much more erratic mjo and not the recent mjo winters where (cod) circle of death was a headache.

It's looking promising but then last autumn showed promise only to lead us up the garden path countless times.

But by God do I love seeing beautiful wintry charts.

I will believe only when it gets within t96.

But I'm excited to see how the next few days go with the models.

And the hurricane season could well also play a part,

as it's extremely quiet!

so maybe the models won't have the added influence in up and coming model runs.

[tight isobar]

Points worthy of note:

Going into november.

Warmth at the pole via Alaskan waa..morphing with any retro'into greenland..with possible 'split accomplishment of the polar vortex.

 

Also..there is flagging of a lot of warmer air in situ @russian quadrant' perhaps inflating later on (november) with further pressure 'cross pole' aiding yet further pressure on the pv as a whole...

 

Already there are good -fairly consistant signs of favourable postioning of heights and alignment...correctional for a cold start for winter for our part of the globe!

...

Will be v-intresting to watch these possible scenarios unfold....

And certainly makes for some probable/possible fun and games...

Going into winter!!!

Edited October 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[SMU]

Early stages of the 12z sees a allignment of the cold to the North- which should mean the first wave could effect more people

[Summer Sun]

Cooler air flooding south by Sunday

 

Edited October 24, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

UKMO has a northerly flow on Sunday this then pulls away east into Monday allowing pressure to build in from the west so frosty nights likely to be more widespread into next week once the short-lived northerly moves away and things settle down

[tight isobar]

The western seaboard waa..continues in gathering flux...

And is further aiding the shunt of eatwards migration of large lobe vortex..

Could be the ace card.....into november..

Gfs12z....

Edited October 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[Summer Sun]

Nasty storm at the start of November