Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Allseasons-Si]

Should of posted this instead of the temp anomaly

March and April

Edited October 17, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[NeilN]

Anything for Jan and Feb? Would be amazing if it came off. A February 1986 please. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The latest from gfs,i sure hope this doesn't come off,poor s Ireland

[feb1991blizzard]

32 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The cfs kept on showing this the other week,was the cfs onto something

i have not checked this model in a while,going to check it now

A good mean for dec though

Anomaly I think you mean, the mean not so good, what you have to remember is over Greenland the default pattern tends to be below average pressure / heights (unfortunately) so you need really strong +ve anomalies and low ones to either the south or east of the UK.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anomaly I think you mean, the mean not so good, what you have to remember is over Greenland the default pattern tends to be below average pressure / heights (unfortunately) so you need really strong +ve anomalies and low ones to either the south or east of the UK.

Yeh,i posted the temp anomaly instead of the pressure anomaly,made another post^

any,this is the cfs so lets not get too hung over,i mean up

Edited October 17, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

The latest gfs starting to push height's into Greenland compared to its 12z

[Man With Beard]

ECM control run once again throws up a massive N Atlantic block to start November

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM control run once again throws up a massive N Atlantic block to start November

And this for the 6-10 dayer from ECM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMXLCZnX0AAufWS.jpg

i have just posted this in the model tweets thread but have posted a model ,so relevant here too

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Also,the MJO working though to phase 8 and quiet amplified too,i seem to recall that this is a good thing,but point me out if i am wrong.

Edited October 17, 2017 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Snowy Hibbo]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Also,the MJO working though to phase 8 and quiet amplified too,i seem to recall that this is a good thing,but point me out if i am wrong.

Depends what you want. Phase 6 + 10 days correlates with a -NAO. The current GFS forecast for the NAO is a decreasing of +NAO to neutral conditions. Based on the MJO forecast, there is an increased chance of a -NAO in the first days of November.

CFS seems to agrees with that. Late October and Early November look to feature a -NAO, according to the 4 member CFS ensemble. I'd personally agree with that forecast, based on the connection with the MJO analogs.

[knocker]

Today mainly  cloudy with sunny intervals in N. Ireland, Scotland and N. England (maybe some slight rain around in places) but the SW, south are currently cloudy with rain which will move north east during the day effecting the Midlands and later further north. Tomorrow starting dry but mainly cloudy before the next low and fronts approach from the south west during the day bringing rain and perhaps strong winds to the south.

The aforementioned low and fronts quickly clear overnight Thursday/Friday resulting in a rather benign day on Friday, maybe some showers in Scotland, before the next intense Atlantic low arrives just west of southern Ireland 961mb bu 00 Saturday with the fronts impacting the western half of the UK. It then tracks north east to be in the Edinburgh area 976mb by 1800. Some quite strong winds in the southern quadrant, maybe gusting 50+kts in Wales and the south west.

The low moves quickly away east and loses it's identity leaving transient ridging in it's wake before on Monday a very deep Atlantic depression is slow moving and filling and it's associated fronts are straddled across the UK as the ridge is depressed. These basically fizzle out against the high pressure that holds sway to the south east so on Tuesday pretty much a NW/SE split albeit the temps are not too bad, particularly in most of England that is in a light southerly

We are now getting into the time frame where the aforementioned amplification is indicated and how this is handled by the models will be interesting. Essentially with high pressure surging in the western Atlantic and over Scandinavia and the upper trough in the middle in close proximity to the UK, a large surface area of low pressure will be almost stationary adjacent to the UK, Precisely how this pans out is probably dependent on the precise trough/ridge orientation (will the trough deconstruct and create another WAA surge? ) and something the det runs will need to get their teeth into to sort the details.but certainly best left for now

 

Edited October 18, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm is tracking the Saturday low a little further south than the gfs and at 1800 has it in the Humber area 984mb. The strongest winds remain in the SW approaches, south Wales. the south coast and the Channel of 50+kts.

[northwestsnow]

Cheers Knocker

Ecm going for a Scandy high @144.

Would be nice to see the Atlantic trough split thereafter with energy going south..i would love to see a block over scandy to usher in november, cant beat a cold,dry,foggy/frosty November day to see mother nature in all her glory as winter approaches.

At 168 southern UK is under the influence of high pressure so hopefully some cold nights to come, of interest is the amount of warm air being pushed all the way to Greenland and the push south of cold air into NW Russia.

Edited October 18, 2017 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Lovely ecm run!!

MAJOR cool down for early Nov across much of central and east  Europe as cold air spills out of the Arctic and the warm air continues to push into Greenland.

[mb018538]

Much quieter ECM run - should be some chilly nights around if it verifies. I think a fair few people would take this after the amount of deep lows, wind and rain we have had in places recently!

[knocker]

The ecm take on the amplification has the pattern further west with the trough more central in the Atlantic A variation on a Rex Block?

[johnholmes]

The 3 anomaly charts I use show this

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

All 3 fairly similar and the NOAA 8-14 keeps the cut off upper low.

Mind you they have not often been that similar over the past few weeks, yes at times, not at others. This is not unusual at this time of the year. The major change over from summer to winter is often not easily managed by them. Of course we have also had a pretty active Tropical Storm/Hurricane season which the 500 mb anomalies also have great difficulty with, partly due to them being 'mean' charts.

[mb018538]

ECM preferable out of those anomalies - GFS has the trough further east and is more involved in our weather. Broadly similar in their agreement on the global pattern though - big western US ridge, big eastern US trough, western Atlantic ridge, eastern Atlantic trough, and a strong scandi ridge.

[Scorcher]

The ECM may be showing a cooldown in Eastern Europe for next week but the UK is still very much in the influence of the much warmer air from Iberia right up to the end of the run.

In fact the cold air never really gets west of Poland or the Czech Republic on this run. Surprised some are suggesting cool nights- in such a warm air mass and with a fair breeze I can't imagine there will be anything notable at night time.

This looks like a very good chart for some late warmth in fact- the source of the air is from the Med, and with France and Spain still very warm for the time of year we could well benefit.

The trend for recent Octobers is for late warm spells rather than cold. We had similar charts last year that brought warmth towards the end of the month and very little in the way of cold nights.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z gradually turns really pleasant next week away from the far west / northwest with strong height rises into scandi which forms a block against the atlantic with the uk bathed in a very mild / rather warm SSEly / SEly airflow, especially further s / se...the pleasant benign face of autumn hopefully returning during late october. 

 

Edited October 18, 2017 by Frosty.

[Charmayne]

Hi guys... can I ask where you get these models from? I've been following your threads for a couple of years, trying to learn about models etc. I'd like to try and start reading them myself and seeing what I have learnt from you all.....then looking here to see if I've got it right or completely wrong lol. Many thanks. 

[tight isobar]

'Another' run showing a v-blocky end oct-begining-nov.

Wave1 activity?,

 

This could be a winter where we (uk) sit in correct placement of NW-NE waa/blocking!!!

One to watch over coming weeks.

[johnholmes]

14 minutes ago, Charmayne said:

Hi guys... can I ask where you get these models from? I've been following your threads for a couple of years, trying to learn about models etc. I'd like to try and start reading them myself and seeing what I have learnt from you all.....then looking here to see if I've got it right or completely wrong lol. Many thanks. 

Hello

A big welcome to Net Wx. We have a section that may help you if you go to 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/

You should find something in there to give help understanding charts. Do the simple bits first then move on to things more complicated.

Also don't be afraid to ask about something you read either on the forum or in the Guides. You will always find someone to get back to you. If you prefer you can always send a pm to someone. (you need to have, not sure the number, perhaps 10 posts before this can happen)

good luck

 

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, Charmayne said:

Hi guys... can I ask where you get these models from? I've been following your threads for a couple of years, trying to learn about models etc. I'd like to try and start reading them myself and seeing what I have learnt from you all.....then looking here to see if I've got it right or completely wrong lol. Many thanks. 

Hi Charmayne

I think most on here use meteociel charts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/

But this new site in the States has loads of charts and other info for Europe as well as globally which you can browse.

https://weather.us/

 

Edited October 18, 2017 by knocker

[johnholmes]

Just now, knocker said:

Hi Charmayne

I think most on here use meteociel charts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/

But this new site in the States has loads of charts and other info for Europe as well as globally

https://weather.us/

 

There are charts using GFS (the American Global Forecasting system) from Net Weather as well, see the list on the home page.