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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
16 minutes ago, sundog said:

All that warm air headed into Greenland at end of the ecm could lead to some northern blocking? If thats what happens.

Possible, though not very plausible. 

I believe it was around this time in 2010 we started to see faint whispers of what was to come though.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

I sense the storm for the weekend is settling into position. On the latest GFS, you can see how the storm peaks quite a while before arrival - at wind point it does have hurricance force winds - but by the time of arrival at the UK the strongest mean winds are in the 50mph-60mph category for S Wales primarily. Strong winds, but probably not red-warning quality:

gfs-14-78.png?6  gfs-14-96.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Just look at that latest run from GFS for day 9 at 850mb height. Warm Tropical Continent flow wafting out of deepest Africa for much of mainland Europe. Think we will see October records off the scale at this rate in quite a number of countries right across from Portugal to Hungary.

C

GFSOPEU06_216_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just look at that latest run from GFS for day 9 at 850mb height. Warm Tropical Continent flow wafting out of deepest Africa for much of mainland Europe. Think we will see October records off the scale at this rate in quite a number of countries right across from Portugal to Hungary.

C

GFSOPEU06_216_2.png

Indeed. Quite what this means going forward I'm not sure...but it's interesting to see. Would be good if we could transport this WAA sufficiently N to affect the burgeoning vortex.

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
16 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just look at that latest run from GFS for day 9 at 850mb height. Warm Tropical Continent flow wafting out of deepest Africa for much of mainland Europe. Think we will see October records off the scale at this rate in quite a number of countries right across from Portugal to Hungary.

C

GFSOPEU06_216_2.png

Some central parts probably see an anomaly of +10 or so for the time of year, before dropping down. Quite a few of the GEFS not showing that kind of extreme, though, and considering the range. Guessing it changes next run :-)

 

 

Captură de ecran din 2017.10.17 la 14.56.27.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Just now, jvenge said:

Some central parts probably see an anomaly of +10 or so for the time of year, before dropping down. Quite a few of the GEFS not showing that kind of extreme, though, and considering the range. Guessing it changes next run :-)

 

 

Captură de ecran din 2017.10.17 la 14.56.27.png

Its not only the huge + positive temp anomaly that is significant but also how widespread it is across the whole of Europe to the Russian borders.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Its not only the huge + positive temp anomaly that is significant but also how widespread it is across the whole of Europe to the Russian borders.

C

It's impressive to see, but still day 9 and although a lot of the ensembles show some agreement, they differ a lot on the area and anomaly. Probably some fun and games between that cold to the east to be had yet. Although not likely enough to change much for central Europe and around the alps (in the context of this being the GFS/GEFS)

ECM and EPS see things differently for the period and it can be very different depending what happens at day 6 and 7 first.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Edit.

Just to clarify I am talking 8-12 day period below.

 

Personally I am quite interested to see how organised the shift East of the PV is - how deep a trough will set up in Europe and how far West it will be and what sort of amplitude we get behind (will we get positive heights into Greenland for example)

Not sure how much it relates to what we can expect for early winter patterns but I will feel encouraged if positive height anomalies can get into Greenland in any meaningful way even though blocking is easier to sustain in October for the most part.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
3 hours ago, jvenge said:

It's impressive to see, but still day 9 and although a lot of the ensembles show some agreement, they differ a lot on the area and anomaly. Probably some fun and games between that cold to the east to be had yet. Although not likely enough to change much for central Europe and around the alps (in the context of this being the GFS/GEFS)

ECM and EPS see things differently for the period and it can be very different depending what happens at day 6 and 7 first.

 

 

ECM does indeed see things quite differently for next week! 2m temp graph here for Warsaw.

ensemble-tt6-warsaw (2).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Big block keeps popping up could this be the year.:shok:

gfsnh-0-384 (1).png

Let's see if we can get the block into Greenland as programmed.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Tis the season to be silly  tralalala :D

On a serious note it looks to me like ukmo has moved towards the GFS at 144 with the Atlantic pushing the block away.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

After a wet night Thursday the gfs is pretty consistent with track of the low on Saturday as it fills, with the strongest winds in the southern quadrant Saturday morning in the Cornwall area,maybe gusting 60kts for a while.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.3ed79729a17438cc743856db083231a8.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_18.thumb.png.8284f4339997990d1222fd32e20addb4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kenilworth, Warks
  • Location: Kenilworth, Warks
26 minutes ago, knocker said:

After a wet night Thursday the gfs is pretty consistent with track of the low on Saturday as it fills, with the strongest winds in the southern quadrant Saturday morning in the Cornwall area,maybe gusting 60kts for a while.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.3ed79729a17438cc743856db083231a8.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_18.thumb.png.8284f4339997990d1222fd32e20addb4.png

For newbies 1knt = 1.151mph so gusts just short of 70mph 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Also after a wet and quite windy Thursday night the ecm has the Saturday low 975mb over Cork at  06 and 985mb NE Wales by 18. Thus the strongest winds in the SW approaches and in the Channel gusting in the 50-55kt region. The heaviest rain south Wales and the Midlands. By midnight it's over Hull 990mb

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Plenty more unseasonably warm weather on the way next week according to the Ecm 12z with winds becoming a long draw southerly, it would become very warm across the s / se in any decent sunshine, potentially more very impressive warmth for late october further south if this run is anything to go by.:)

192_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850.png

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All... After yesterday interesting weather , a little quieter for a while , but things get rather stormy by early weekend for southern Britain....What is quite unusual is that the strongest gusts of wind are reserved for mainly England and overland with gusts up to and over 70 mph. Looks like the Midlands could bear the brunt of this storm, ok a long way off still ,but one to watch.....

saturday.png

saturdayx.png

saturdayxx.png

saturdayxxx.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

ECM op has a nice Scandinavian block surge of very cold air advected westwards into Scandinavia and Eastern Europe the Azores high keeping things settled and mild here in Western Europe. Them white pixels which folk obsess about should see those white pixels really build, winter ‘mode’ is descending on the northern hemisphere. 

4EBCAFED-1F59-4018-B4A9-1862CB8BD8DA.thumb.png.1db1e769b0f1503ff2c90b8e3b77ad96.png2675C705-4BD1-433A-9A96-247BA07921CC.thumb.png.f45eb3baf3950fee12a44dfd1abb0b8f.png

NAO going negative in the extended range and seemingly AO to a lesser degree with impressive WAA extending to Greenland certainly early interest it will not amount to much with HP stubborn to our S/SE. However blocks can also provide to be stubborn to shift Greenland highs are notorious for this. 

48576D8B-53F4-4DE0-A1C8-9AA1E11AD827.thumb.png.45de7dce63175eba6ece6dfc094bc330.png55E7B8B0-C4ED-419D-AFE2-FE5AC5F3EB03.thumb.png.c02236a62aab7d71e3cbc85f3954867b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFS and NOAA anomalies this evening are certainly firming up on the Pattern change over N. America and similar amplification in the Atlantic and even, maybe a tad unusually, emphasizing this in the latter period. This portends a reduction of any  significant west-east movement with low pressure residing in the east Atlantic and perhaps a slack low pressure area to the south west of the UK in the later period. Plenty here for the det. runs to get to grips with. Could well be a reasonable warm set up with temps a little above average. A quick glance at the ecm and it not quite so progressive with the pattern thus the Euro high a bit more influential over the UK initially. There are differences so this is not cut and dried by any means.

EDIT

The EPS in the latter stages a more prosaic gentle upper flow a tad south of west but temps still okay

610day_03.thumb.gif.47a3495d2e2e791bc200499313d3b9b8.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.c04c2deacdc5dd63ad52769ed5f30bfd.gif

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.a7a8050d07a0da1ac6660ce885f0acea.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.6fad9b2423634dfc2ac820273e5cbbe0.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Surprised not more coldies taking note of the plunge of cold to the east on the ECM - but having said that, very little support within the ECM ensembles from this morning, with perhaps only 7 out of 51 members set up in a way that could potentially shift the cold further towards us.

Speaking of this morning's ECM clusters, they were a real hoot - by T288, they were roughly equally split between 1. a Scandi trough / cold northerly for the UK, 2. a long draw warm southerly and 3. a monster storm slap bang on top of us. Four seasons in one ensemble set :)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017101700_288.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Surprised not more coldies taking note of the plunge of cold to the east on the ECM - but having said that, very little support within the ECM ensembles from this morning, with perhaps only 7 out of 51 members set up in a way that could potentially shift the cold further towards us.

Speaking of this morning's ECM clusters, they were a real hoot - by T288, they were roughly equally split between 1. a Scandi trough / cold northerly for the UK, 2. a long draw warm southerly and 3. a monster storm slap bang on top of us. Four seasons in one ensemble set :)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017101700_288.

You can tell we are entering the silly season. The clusters are as clear as mud lol

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

First one of the new season -

gfsnh-0-384_pnl0.png

 

BULLSEYE!

The cfs kept on showing this the other week,was the cfs onto something:shok:

i have not checked this model in a while,going to check it now:D

A good mean for dec though:D

cfsnh-1-12-2017.png?00

Edited by Allseasons-si
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