Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Dorsetbred]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, a real potent storm shown on the 6z GFS, bringing quite widespread gales and severe gales to numerous locations

 

Yep certainly more concerned with the two later this week (from a IMBY) perspective, the second whilst looking fairly quick moving looks to hold some raw power...

[AWD]

Still there on the GFS 12z.

Arpege 12z also has it.  Different track/variation but at this range that's to be expected:

Along with 12z UKMO.  This run has it running further south more, thus affecting Northern France more but at this timescale, detail like that could easily change: 

One to watch.  Something Ireland could do without too.

Edited October 16, 2017 by AWD

[Snow Slave]

6 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

At a first glance, you may think both frames are for today's storm. Actually, one is for Friday. Scary.

  

On the 00Z, the latter storm turned into this:

One to watch.

The deep purples are over my area! 

God I sooooo hope the 00z actaully comes off! 

We are overdue some exciting weather. 

 

[Summer Sun]

The weekend could still see some strong winds and heavy rain in some parts of the UK

[radiohead]

12Z ECM at T96. Here we go again?

 

Edited October 16, 2017 by radiohead

[knocker]

Leaving aside next weekends depression as others have it covered the GEFS anomaly this evening is still indicating an upstream pattern change in the medium term with a trough in eastern N. America and amplification in the Atlantic. Thus a meridional flow but south westerly once more over the UK which would portend temps perhaps rising again above average for a spell. Really just musing but it will be interesting to see if NOAA and the EPS show any interest

[Ice Day]

Saturday looking very stormy with a low crossing Ireland during the morning, assuming the 12z ECM is on the money.  Low pressure shown to be around 972 which would probably be producing gusts of around 70mph, maybe a bit more.  Certainly not welcome for those still trying to get their power back!  Proper autumnal weather this....

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Could be a dreadful start to half term if the GFS 12z is right.

This is not good as some people will be going on holidays both home and abroad. For those towing touring caravans on Saturday take extra care on the roads. 

[damianslaw]

Looking beyond the upcoming weekend which promises further very unsettled conditions, the models are showing quite an amplified flow as we enter the last part of the month, with a deepening long wave trough over eastern USA seaboard, ridge development over the western atlantic and a deepening trough just to our east, this will allow strong heights to build to the NE, and a probably southerly/southwesterly flow at first, but then the possibility of the trough splitting somewhat and those heights to the NE taking hold bringing a welcome change to drier colder conditions as we enter November - its my take on things.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All , After todays spectacular display of mother nature ,that's the amazing red sun and the spooky red hue during day time today here in Worcestershire much better than any eclipse and something Ive never seen before  , Ophilia is now dying very quickly but still a big feature across the uk, a little bit quieter in the next few days and then the Attention turns to the weekend ,looks rather stormy by Saturday fuelled by a very strong jet stream....

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z GFS looks nasty...

Widespread inland severe gales possible from that on Saturday

[Man With Beard]

58 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

18z GFS looks nasty...

Widespread inland severe gales possible from that on Saturday

How is it that the track of Ophelia was nailed so darn perfectly, yet this one, like most Atlantic storms, is bobbing about over a 300 mile range!!

Getting close in range now. Odds against it rivaling Ophelia but could be the biggest storm of the year for England. Or will it somehow hit the same places hit today?

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

How is it that the track of Ophelia was nailed so darn perfectly, yet this one, like most Atlantic storms, is bobbing about over a 300 mile range!!

Getting close in range now. Odds against it rivaling Ophelia but could be the biggest storm of the year for England. Or will it somehow hit the same places hit today?

I was thinking the same about projected path...I thought data was meant to be sparse to our SW but Ophelia was forecast pretty effortlessly over about 5 days. I'm guessing it is due to the fact that initially she was detached from the jet stream. I think it is the jet (and forecast strength) which is responsible for errant model runs. Also factor in interaction with other areas of low pressure.

On to Saturday...the 18z doesn't exactly give Ireland much joy

Looks pretty dicey for them once again.

Edited October 16, 2017 by CreweCold

[The Eagle]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I was thinking the same about projected path...I thought data was meant to be sparse to our SW but Ophelia was forecast pretty effortlessly over about 5 days. I'm guessing it is due to the fact that initially she was detached from the jet stream. I think it is the jet (and forecast strength) which is responsible for errant model runs. Also factor in interaction with other areas of low pressure.

On to Saturday...the 18z doesn't exactly give Ireland much joy

Looks pretty dicey for them once again.

Yeah this has already been referred to on television here but I sense the public is tired.

 

Another red alert = another day off work though

 

Hopefully we don't have to go through all this again.

Edited October 16, 2017 by The Eagle

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

Yeah this has already been referred to on television here but I sense the public is tired.

 

Another red alert = another day off work though

With a bit of luck, the core of the highest winds will miss to your east...perhaps running up the Irish Sea as per 18z

On a side note, I can't believe how differently Ireland approaches these things. I could never imagine my company (a large retailer) allowing closure due to storm force winds. In fact, they'd still try and trade if the roof blew off!

[Chris.]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

With a bit of luck, the core of the highest winds will miss to your east...perhaps running up the Irish Sea as per 18z

On a side note, I can't believe how differently Ireland approaches these things. I could never imagine my company (a large retailer) allowing closure due to storm force winds. In fact, they'd still try and trade if the roof blew off!

Sounds like you work for one of the car manufacturing  giants in the north east lol.

[Geordiesnow]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

How is it that the track of Ophelia was nailed so darn perfectly, yet this one, like most Atlantic storms, is bobbing about over a 300 mile range!!

Getting close in range now. Odds against it rivaling Ophelia but could be the biggest storm of the year for England. Or will it somehow hit the same places hit today?

Devil is in the detail as per always but all models are painting a similar picture of low pressure being dominant over the UK and for it to have a southerly track(e.g not heading over Scotland or between Scotland/Iceland), the question will be where the strongest winds will be and how deep it will get? Potential there for more severe gales but at the same time, the system may not deepen as much as expected so whiist it may be windy, the weather will not be all that severe.

I do hope its another deep low, its what I want too see at this time of year before hoping for the cold weather set ups!

[knocker]

I was going to do a quick spiel on last night's anomalies but, although they  are all to some degree agreed on the upstream pattern change and amplification in the Atlantic, the differences are sufficient, particularly with the orientation of the upper trough in the eastern Atlantic, too make the longer term outlook very iffy..Suffice it to say there may be a brief period of drier and warmer weather but in the long term the amplification may not do us any particular favours.

Back to today.

This morning the influence of Ex Ophelia is still being felt in N. Ireland and particularly Scotland where it is still wet and very windy. This will clear quite quickly this morning as the low continues to move quite quickly into Scandinavia so much calmer conditions, albeit with some showers, by this afternoon.. And also all sea areas should be without gales by the same time.

Apart from the far north, for the rest of England and Wales, a much quieter and cooler day but by evening a warm front edging in from the south will bring cloud and some rain to the SW/S

So a much quieter day tomorrow for all but by midnight Thursday we are already seeing the European high pressure ridging NW and the Atlantic dominated by the negatively tilted upper trough which heralds the start of some more nasty weather with new lows to the NW and SW with associated front over Ireland.

The low to the south west and the front swing across the UK on Thursday bringing rain to just about everyone but it is the next depression away to the south west which is the main concern. This tracks quite quickly ENE on a strong upper flow (100kts at 500mb) and by appalling coincidence is 965mb at the tip of south west Ireland by midnight Saturday. Over the next 24 hours it tracks across the Irish Sea, Northern England and into the North Sea bringing much rain and severe gales in places as it does so. Where the worst of the winds will be is obviously dependent on the precise track of the low but currently Wales and the south west and southern England are in the frame.

After some very transient ridging on Sunday the next frontal system arrives from the west along with small waves that form on it so more general rain again by Monday. This unsettled theme continues into midweek but it is around here that the aforementioned pattern change is indicated so probably a good place to leave it.

[knocker]

The ecm has the low 970mb just off the SW tip of Ireland at 06 on Saturday but moves it quite slowly so by 1800 it is just west of N. Wales. Thus the strongest wind gusts (50kt region) in the south west and south Wales. By Midday Sunday it has filled to 994mb and is over Cumbria. This is best case scenario vis wind and the heavy rain probably confined to the south west, Wales and the north west.

Not forgetting of course that a belt of moderate rain will track north east on the front preceding this movement on Saturday morning.

Edited October 17, 2017 by knocker

[James1979]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

With a bit of luck, the core of the highest winds will miss to your east...perhaps running up the Irish Sea as per 18z

On a side note, I can't believe how differently Ireland approaches these things. I could never imagine my company (a large retailer) allowing closure due to storm force winds. In fact, they'd still try and trade if the roof blew off!

Crazy isn’t it- when I worked for Harrods during the st Jude storm and there were no trains they tried to make me take it as annual leave when i couldn’t get in! Doesn’t matter what’s going on out there, you get in m’boy or take it as holiday was the attitude.

[blizzard81]

Ecm shows some beautiful weather for half term week. 

[Man With Beard]

My sense this morning is that the low is going to peak before arrival - meaning quick weakening after landfall. Stormy for coasts, gales elsewhere. But still chopping and changing

[knocker]

The previously mentioned amplification with the ecm det. run this morning

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm shows some beautiful weather for half term week. 

Yes the Ecm 00z shows a BIG improvement next week with high pressure and increasing warmth..these charts look more like summer than late october!

[sundog]

All that warm air headed into Greenland at end of the ecm could lead to some northern blocking? If thats what happens.