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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The ec control looks similar to the op re the storm. Max winds on the op Monday evening at 99 knots off the sw coast of Ireland 

Worrying at the moment from cork right up to mayo though I guess that part of the world is not averse to some pretty strong winds through the autumn and winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec control looks similar to the op re the storm. Max winds on the op Monday evening at 99 knots off the sw coast of Ireland 

Worrying at the moment from cork right up to mayo though I guess that part of the world is not averse to some pretty strong winds through the autumn and winter. 

Storm Darwin hit Ireland on 12 February 2014 causing major damage to housing, property and forestry. The climate records suggest that Storm Darwin was broadly a 1 in 20 year event. Remains to be seen as to whether or not this weather system has the potential to rival that event.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Latest on Ophelia, now a hurricane but gradually weakening to an extra-tropical storm by Monday. Interesting track though!:)

Lots to talk about in the coming days with unseasonable warmth / heat and an extra-tropical storm etc..certainly not boring run of the mill autumn weather ahead!

DL4p3jdU8AA8GHx.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

18z has the storm slightly further west and not as intense to my untrained eye.

GFSOPEU18_126_1.png

GFSOPEU12_126_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Latest ECM pushes the eye of Ophelia straight through Ireland a little more weakly than yesterday, with strongest gusts now on the west coast of England/Wales/Scotland, over 80 mph in places.

Temperatures for Monday generally 22-25C through central and eastern England.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Latest ecm track is about 30 miles east of last run across w Ireland and 5mb less intense. That's some bad news and good news. Looking at the last few runs and other modelling, I can't see the track being corrected much further east that it would bring Dublin into the equation re anything ridiculous. as MWB posted, some very gusty stuff through the Irish Sea. 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

0z has the eye clipping the West coast of Ireland although it appears to be a more intense storm. SW would appear to take the brunt of the wind. What sort of gusts would you expect from this system? 

GFSOPEU00_114_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

NetWx-MR Models take on Mondays wind & temps, Continues to show a similar track of Ophelia. A nippy 6c for the Highlands.. Some stark temp variations.

viewimage-15.thumb.png.75d2480830ddd29a54945ab063963585.pngviewimage-13.thumb.png.63c6ca8eeb3e71a46425f689d04fc1d5.pngviewimage-16.thumb.png.5f172ec6bf17aedbac1df2bf36efe754.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Looks a familiar pattern as we head into deepest Autumn. Above average temps for most of Europe . Nothing weather over Central Euroland, a familiar pattern, with continued bursts of unsettled weather for NW Europe.  Already fear of a poor start to the coming ski season !

C

ECMOPNH00_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

May seem a little off topic considering the main focus off attention being Ophelia and its projected path. However, beyond that, the atlantic on the Ecm 00z  doesn't seem to be as rampant as on the previous run, with more in the way of higher heights to the south again deflecting the worst of any wind and rain to the far northwest. 59df23cea44b7_oct18.thumb.JPG.6b61f82e3bad08e470502d85c3af8e56.JPG59df23e626dc2_oct20.thumb.JPG.bbc4c0a0d0178057dfda93adc17a5a12.JPG59df23f3f09a3_oct22.thumb.JPG.571b82e6bd533aab2c964c798b40b58b.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

As per usual, the BBC are not on board for anything exceptional over the weekend/Monday temperature-wise. They are going for high teens here and only around 20C in the London area.

I would have thought that with the setup as it is, we would get a fair bit of sunshine over the weekend which would lift the temps higher than that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Looks a familiar pattern as we head into deepest Autumn. Above average temps for most of Europe . Nothing weather over Central Euroland, a familiar pattern, with continued bursts of unsettled weather for NW Europe.  Already fear of a poor start to the coming ski season !

C

ECMOPNH00_240_1.png

Indeed carinthian, yesterday's 12z ECM was excellent as it was showing a shift in this pattern but today we are back to square one.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

As per usual, the BBC are not on board for anything exceptional over the weekend/Monday temperature-wise. They are going for high teens here and only around 20C in the London area.

I would have thought that with the setup as it is, we would get a fair bit of sunshine over the weekend which would lift the temps higher than that. 

Highest temps at this stage look to be out of London

3bd50d97-43c2-46d6-b87e-cee0b91189b2.thumb.png.1fa1aa5c9b34d6ac48d7d19d36a5a5b2.png125fd064-dd5b-4dcd-ab63-31874b38abce.thumb.png.f95f876dd536c712db501f4070c76b87.png46e88b23-3fdf-4201-920c-8a8028108712.thumb.png.fea20af1d760b7a8061d886d16a42846.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Indeed carinthian, yesterday's 12z ECM was excellent as it was showing a shift in this pattern but today we are back to square one.

The same tired old pathetic story I'm afraid. What else is new?   Still I'm sure there will be some who will be happy enough with it for whatever reason.:nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
1 hour ago, sundog said:

The same tired old pathetic story I'm afraid. What else is new?   Still I'm sure there will be some who will be happy enough with it for whatever reason.:nonono:

Can't see anything to suggest otherwise, looks like the usual setup heading into late Autumn early Winter. The hunt continues for that elusive pattern change to something more seasonal.

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

It seems like a permanent pattern every year. Who knows it could change, but something will give in the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Can we please use the model banter/moan thread for general lighter discussion & chit chat/BBC forcasts please. And only use this thread for what the Model Outputs are showing, As per thread title with charts/data to back post up where possible.

Many thanks, Please continue.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Here in South Wales, it looks like Monday will be the peak of the warm spell with temperatures getting up to 21C in places but I wouldn't be surprised if we get a tad higher than that.  Sunday is 20C Max with long spells of sunshine and Saturday will probably be the coolest of the weekend at around 15C and quite cloudy.

So it seems like the October beach days are returning here again (only for a short period) this year but this time, it may well be even warmer :)

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z shows plenty of fine weather with high pressure throughout next week across southern uk and further ahead shows another long draw broadly southerly airflow through low res bringing warm / very warm temperatures for the time of year and most of any rain generally restricted to the far west / northwest, as is the case next week. There are hints of our first polar / arctic maritime outbreak right at the end of the run but for the most part, this run indicates a lot of unseasonably warm and fine weather, especially further south and east.:)

06_228_mslp850.png

06_228_uk2mtmp.png

06_252_mslp850.png

06_252_uk2mtmp.png

06_300_mslp850.png

06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_324_mslp850.png

06_384_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
4 hours ago, SteveB said:

Can't see anything to suggest otherwise, looks like the usual setup heading into late Autumn early Winter. The hunt continues for that elusive pattern change to something more seasonal.

I think there is little relevance to the weather patterns now than what we may face in winter, heights across the pole are high and is forecast to stay like that for the foreseeable but it's too early to know what will happen in the future.

Ignoring the uncertainty where the ex hurricane might end up, the trend does seem to suggest the Euro high may keep its influence over the UK somewhat rather than an Atlantic onslaught taking place as the models sort of suggested previously, either way a warm Outlook and no real signs of anything chilly on the horizon.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png  ukmaxtemp.png  ukgust.png

A slight reduction in the forward motion of Ophelia allows the plume to stick around a few hours longer on Monday. Optimal setup for maximising temps. In fact, given that back in May this year GFS fell a few degrees short with the highest temps when conditions were warm but very breezy, I'd not rule out a localised 25*C this side of the Channel. Incredible to see France largely in the mid-high 20s, let alone having already spent the weekend hitting the mid-20s widely.

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png ukgust.pngh850t850eu.png

This push back of the Euro High on Tuesday seemed to spring up quite suddenly yesterday evening, and while the 12z applies more pressure from the Atlantic troughs than the previous two runs, this only serves to place us under tight pressure gradients for a time before the ridge winds out anyway - albeit with some cooler air cutting in rather than the balmy setup of what was a pretty extraordinary 06z in terms of implications for the month-mean temperatures.

Hopefully this sneaky 'attack of the Euro High' is not a trend that will still be with us a month from now (as much as GloSea5 seems to think it will be... how dare it eh?).

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