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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Well, indeed, and heights over Greenland or to the NE mean little at this time of year apart from the signal (perhaps) of a weak Atlantic.

The GFS has played this trough disruption on a lot of the recent OP output so I'm just wondering if, in the absence of anything tropical, the signal is for the Atlantic to weaken.

The 06Z OP FI NH profile isn't without interest with much warmer air where we would expect our friend the PV to be but as others have said elsewhere, it's still very early days and of little import for future seasonal developments.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
4 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm very similar to the gfs and takes Ophelia as an intense extra tropical depression just west of Ireland on Monday. Lets hope they are both correct.

Why? Its Autumn and surely deep lows is what you want too see really just like in winter most want too see heavy snow which also bought brings its own problems.

It does seem like the UK may miss this tropical storm but its still far too early to know for sure and the path could easily shift more eastwards. The warmth that this system could produce before it heads anywhere near our shores could potentially be quite impressive, it certainly an interesting period coming up.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Why? Its Autumn and surely deep lows is what you want too see really just like in winter most want too see heavy snow which also bought brings its own problems.

I

No they are not what I want to see, I saw enough of them in a previous life. And regarding heavy snow and cold I'm perfectly happy (or not) with the memories of 47 and 62-63.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A sharp temperature gradient showing on the charts between the tropical and polar air masses resulting in the energised jet stream wavering near us over the coming days.

gfs-1-114.png?6gfs-5-114.png?6

So yes a burst of Summer like heat,especially further south but also creating ripe conditions for further cyclonic development along the boundary.

Indeed all eyes to the south west over the next 5 days as to the track/development of further wave depressions forming south of the Azores from the influx of tropical air.

Latest gfs at day 4 shows such a feature at the base of the main Atlantic trough ready to run NE.

gfs-0-96.png?6

As already said by others one to watch because of the rain and storm force winds associated with them.

Uncertainty on this currently and the hope is the continental high here on the 06z gfs can just steer it on a more northerly route further away before it collapses under the resurgent jet from the west later next week.

gfs-0-120.png?6

For N.Ireland and NW Scotland though it does look a close run thing.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Remarkable to see 19C or more right through the country in the second half of September. The ex-tropical storm acting as the perfect catalyst to waft the warmth northwards.

ECM was bang on the money for this one (if it turns out as currently modelled), and now the GFS/UKMO have followed.

Ophelia looking a bit more likely to be an Ireland affair (though still low confidence) - however, the latest ECM clusters show stormy weather likely to get to the UK mainland by next Wednesday - all clusters going pretty much the same way on that:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017101100_168.

Or even in the second half of October!

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

A sharp temperature gradient showing on the charts between the tropical and polar air masses resulting in the energised jet stream wavering near us over the coming days.

gfs-1-114.png?6gfs-5-114.png?6

So yes a burst of Summer like heat,especially further south but also creating ripe conditions for further cyclonic development along the boundary.

Indeed all eyes to the south west over the next 5 days as to the track/development of further wave depressions forming south of the Azores from the influx of tropical air.

Latest gfs at day 4 shows such a feature at the base of the main Atlantic trough ready to run NE.

gfs-0-96.png?6

As already said by others one to watch because of the rain and storm force winds associated with them.

Uncertainty on this currently and the hope is the continental high here on the 06z gfs can just steer it on a more northerly route further away before it collapses under the resurgent jet from the west later next week.

gfs-0-120.png?6

For N.Ireland and NW Scotland though it does look a close run thing.

One thing's for sure, the BBC forecasts from the ones I've watched thus far daren't go there yet it seems with the strongest focus on the impressive rainfall totals (potentially unwelcome, 175mm and counting currently on the highest peaks) and the heat burst shortly afterwards for parts South of Birmingham at the weekend. As to why they won't comment on next week, I think are playing the extra cautious, softly, softly deck of cards and who can blame them. Knocker's posts and yours and a few others besides prove to me, that that is currently a wise move. Fascinating mid-October period of weather, one that will baffle the wildlife as well.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z shows fabulous warmth on the way for the southern half of the uk later this week and through the weekend into the start of next week with temperatures soaring into the low 20's celsius in the sunny spells and potentially 24/25c in favoured spots across the s / e / se. We are looking at a generally northwest - southeast split with most of the rain expected across the far northwest / west with the best of the dry weather and sunshine further east / southeast..enjoy this upcoming late burst of exceptional warmth!:)

06_57_uk2mtmp.png

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

06_81_mslp850.png

06_105_uk2mtmp.png

06_105_mslp850.png

06_105_precipratec.png

06_129_mslp850.png

06_129_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I'm hoping the Euro High shifts east enough for the storm to push into the south coast. Not looking likely but still time for things to change.

In the meantime, one last BBQ perhaps on Sunday/Monday 8)

BBQ.thumb.gif.75ef5fbbf176f212f536057ed03c7660.gif126-778.thumb.gif.1c078ff1cdd3405620f02bfd751f3b2f.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Yep Descent weather showing up for this time of the year  South more so then anywhere else  hovering around 19c to 20c here during the period    might  even get the wife to turn the heating off 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Arpege hitting 25C on Sunday, another one to the list of models predicting some pretty outrageous temperatures for the middle of October.

arpegeuk-41-98-0.png?11-18

 

There is still uncertainty regarding Monday and the track of ex-tropical depression Opheilia. There is the chance is the fronts stay west enough that Eastern areas could get even warmer on Monday. 

That isn't all though, again the track of the depression also means the chance of some damaging winds (especially the further west you are). 

The GFS for day 5

120-289UK.GIF?11-12

Just south of Ireland and packing some very strong gusts of winds, worth noting the much calmer conditions further east and a straight southerly flow which would bring dry and sunny conditions and hence the GFS predicitions of 24C for that day (Stunning concidering the model tends to downplay maxima). Rainfall at the moment doesn't look so bad apart from the usual north western spots which tend to do badly when heights build over Europe (Western Scotland, parts of N.Ireland and Cumbria).

120-777UK.GIF?11-12

So a lot to talk about, plenty of interest at least.

By the middle of next week we should be back in a more typical October pattern with the upper trough slowly moving eastwards bring a mix of sunny spells mixed with some spells of wind and rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

It's difficult to see the exact track on this run due to the time configuration  however this is were the low is 24 hours later . Has the low gone through the centre of Ireland ? 

IMG_0986.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
18 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Will the ecm has shifted the storm more eastwards and certainly seems to have strengthened it somewhat

IMG_0985.GIF

Gusts to 111mph in SW Ireland from this:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101112/cork/gusts-3h-mph/20171016-1500z.html

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yep nasty. Keeping a close eye on this. Obviously the track isn't nailed  yet  an easterly push on subsequent runs could cause a few headaches . Even that Far East it still brings winds  up to 50mph in centre England 

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

On the 30th anniversary of the 1987 storm, we could well have another in the name of Brian if this comes off for Ireland

c254fecb-a28c-4cd9-8e6e-6cde124d75d2.thumb.png.b6a1615935fe0821e523743886e0b44b.pnge4d12a47-ee5d-4450-beff-8167de4511e4.thumb.png.ad31c78a7839534eda65593610e5ece4.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

On the 30th anniversary of the 1987 storm, we could well have another in the name of Brian if this comes off for Ireland

c254fecb-a28c-4cd9-8e6e-6cde124d75d2.thumb.png.b6a1615935fe0821e523743886e0b44b.pnge4d12a47-ee5d-4450-beff-8167de4511e4.thumb.png.ad31c78a7839534eda65593610e5ece4.png

 

 

Keep up, SS. I thought you were always first with the news.  

Never in a million years, did I think it might come off? Helen Willetts said they're watching things closely at the BBC or words to that effect and that's the first I've heard the Beeb mention it in their forecasts. Will be fascinating to see what develops or doesn't as the case might be.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Exceptional warmth on the Ecm 12z for a time, even warmer than the 00z. As I said earlier, while there is still potential for low to mid 20's celsius and perhaps a little higher in favoured spots..I welcome it with open arms,..stunning ecm charts!:)

564 dam / +15 plus T850's in mid october is magical.

 

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850.png

96_thickuk.png

120_mslp850.png

120_mslp850uk.png

120_thickuk.png

120_thick.png

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

Have to say that these storm projections are making me nervous. Doesn't look good at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Lots of interest in the coming days, in the shorter term we have the projected warmth forecast, how high will temps go is the question. Then we have the uncertainty regarding ex tropical storm - where will this go? Then we might be plunged into a much cooler phase with northern heights building bringing promise of first widespread air frost.

The models are playing around with different scenarios for next week. Quite often warm southerly plumes are replaced by colder northerly feeds.. in short space of time.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

npsh500.240.png

If only it was January eh? :rolleyes:

Bit of a departure from recent det. runs of both this and GFS so just a wildcard at least for the time being. 

Much more concerning matters to deal with in the nearer-term, first in a positive sense if you like a late burst of warmth, and then negative for western Ireland potentially (and who knows, maybe a bit further east as the path may still shift by up to 100 miles one way or the other - although either westward or little change both seem more likely than eastward due to the Euro ridge looking quite impressive).

The tropospheric vortex sure seems to be having a bit of trouble getting its act together this month - but this taking place in October means little of significance for the winter as was made apparent following informative discussions not long ago in the stratosphere thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
1 hour ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Keep up, SS. I thought you were always first with the news.  

Never in a million years, did I think it might come off? Helen Willetts said they're watching things closely at the BBC or words to that effect and that's the first I've heard the Beeb mention it in their forecasts. Will be fascinating to see what develops or doesn't as the case might be.

While they might be mentioning it at the BBC, certainly the same can't be said for the Irish met service. No early weather warnings, not even a mention of this system by Met Eireann on its 9:30pm broadcast tonight.

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