Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[gottolovethisweather]

11 hours ago, knocker said:

I didn't twig earlier but this is what the ecm is playing with and developing as an extra tropical feature. We shall see

I'm not saying a word but...... thirty years on and the timeframes are broadly similar given the projected dates.  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/case-studies/great-storm

2 hours ago, knocker said:

On a closer time scale the ecm has some very nasty weather overnight and into Weds, for Scotland, N.Ireland and northern England with heavy rain and gales, perhaps severe. Flash forward to 00 Sunday and the wave is west of N. Ireland and Ophelia is tracking east just south  of the Azores who could receive some very inclement weather from this and the front.

The wave continues on it's journey NE as the front loses it's identity over the western half of the Britain on Sunday as the rest of England basks in temps up to 23C in places. Meanwhile Orphelia is starting to swing NNE and is an intense little feature in the southern Irish Sea by 18 Tuesday. en route to the borders. Needless to say this scenario would drag some rain and warm temps with it.

That's just one theory of course.

6

Anyway, as an aside and broadly weather-related, so bear with me. Where I ventured birding today, small flocks of Redwings and Fieldfares were seen passing overhead, not far off their normal arrival dates but do give them the heads-up as they MAY wish to head back North soon temporarily to avoid the incoming heatwave and then back South again, shortly afterwards. 

So in summary, courtesy of the many posts in here, unsettled, more especially towards the North and West, windy if not stormy and cool to average up North and very warm fro time darn South. Next week, eyes on the jetstream and the features aforemnentioned above.

A woman just emailed to say "Tony, get off the bleedin weather forums", I replied, "Don't worry, they're won't be another post like this",  not simply enough meat on the bones...... Really thhirty years ago next week, blimey o'reilly

Until next time, take care all. 

 

Edited October 9, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[Daniel*]

12 hours ago, knocker said:

I didn't twig earlier but this is what the ecm is playing with and developing as an extra tropical feature. We shall see

It will need to be watched very closely with, the thirty year anniversary of the Great Storm coming up how apt. 

 

[knocker]

Today will start off cloudy in many areas with sporadic light rain or drizzle, particularly the west, but cloud breaking in most places and then feeling quite warm in the light south westerly. later in the day  more cloud will arrive in N. Ireland and western Scotland followed by rain and increasing winds, perhaps to gale force.The front(s) and rain will clear the south east late Weds as a ridge nudges in from the south west giving brighter and clearer conditions.

According to this morning's gfs the next deep Atlantic low has tracked north east to be Iceland 959mb by 06 Friday with associated fronts already running south east across N. Ireland and Scotland with once again the wind increasing. But the front grinds to a halt against the strong high pressure to the S/SE and waves are beginning to form on it running NE whilst Ophelia can be clearly seen on it's tail near the base of the upper trough which runs a fair way south. It should be noted this scenario produces a very marked temp gradient N/S over the UK.

Not a lot of change over the next 24 hours with waves and rain still effecting the north, the HP to the south with temps over England in the low 20sC. But the front has been disrupted further to the south west by the ridging Azores which has tended to cut off Ophelia. But the very same ridging does at last force what is left of the front east and scattered light rain with it and by Monday a cooler airmass is in place for all. From here it gets quite complicated as the high pressure is quickly shunted east by activity caused apparently by Ophelia as it tracks east over Corunna and the main Atlantic trough. Thus by Tuesday we have a shallow low west of Scotland with England and Wales in a warm southerly drift with temps once more in the low 20sC. Oh what a tangled web we weave,

From here the main trough in the west does finally through but this getting way too far ahead, Throughout all of this quite complicated jiggling the NW/SE divide remains the dominate feature and there could well be some worrying rainfall totals in the north west. It goes without saying that none of this over the weekend and into next week is a done deal.

Edited October 10, 2017 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

ECM really ramping up the plume with uppers of 17C by Monday morning. But that tropical storm looks worrying. It hits our shores by Tuesday on this model, doesn't appear too strong but surely has potential to be worse.

[Frosty.]

Sensational Ecm 00z charts for mid october mid 20's celsius for some of us if this verifies!..564 dam = BBQ!! 

[knocker]

Yes it's quite interesting. The ecm instead of having the Azores ridge disrupting the front and isolating Ophelia, it ridges more to the north thus pushing the front eastwards and swings Ophelia quickly north of Corunna and then NE across the UK into the North Sea on Tuesday. Unless it deepens considerably it shouldn't be too windy but probably dump a fair amount of rain in the south. Once it;s through the high pressure continues to keep the Atlantic fronts at bay through midweek and the southerly drift again has it quite warm in England and wales. But again, this is long way from being definitive.

Edited October 10, 2017 by knocker

[mb018538]

I guess the potential is there in any sunshine to push temps to around 24/25c if the ECM verified.

All eyes on TS Ophelia though, that is going to cause to models one hell of a headache on that track! Very unusual, with the potential (low at this stage) to cause disruption.

[summer blizzard]

Euro has ridging to the east holding and a very abnormal pattern. GFS resumes normality by day 9. 

[Man With Beard]

20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I guess the potential is there in any sunshine to push temps to around 24/25c if the ECM verified.

All eyes on TS Ophelia though, that is going to cause to models one hell of a headache on that track! Very unusual, with the potential (low at this stage) to cause disruption.

I'm going to go a step further and suggest somewhere would hit 80F if the ECM pressure charts work out. I'm thinking this because west Spain has regularly been hitting 35C in recent days, and that's exactly where our weather would be coming from. Such heat is unprecedented in October down there, at least so consistently, and therefore I'd expect something unprecedented here on a direct hit.

[Summer Sun]

25c somewhere in Cambridgeshire on Monday? the temps from ECM show it is possible

Enjoy this weekends warmth I know I will

Edited October 10, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Sensational Ecm 00z charts for mid october mid 20's celsius for some of us if this verifies!..564 dam = BBQ!! 

 

 

Amazing to see the 15C isotherm north of Newcastle on October 16th- this can't have happened too many times before! 

[Boro Snow]

And hopefully the last time we see it this far north till at least March 

[Man With Beard]

Perhaps worth restating before Knocker takes Sidney's winter coat off - always a good chance of a plume being modelled 200 miles further east by T72 when compared to the T144. If that happens in this case, you could knock a good 3-5C off the temps we see modelled today. Not really any chance of upgrades so it's what we see now or a bit cooler.

[feb1991blizzard]

In GFS FI, close but no cigar - not a million miles off a nice little Northerly to get the new season underway.

 

 

That's the problem early in the season, the sea is too warm still so as soon as cold air starts to make its way over warm seas, shortwave development seems to scupper it.

Edited October 10, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[knocker]

And by way of variation the 06 gfs has Ophelia phasing with the Atlantic trough and the new low nips up the UK intensifying at goes bringing  heavy rain and gales. Be interesting to see how this all ends up

Edited October 10, 2017 by knocker

[sparky1972]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

25c somewhere in Cambridgeshire on Monday? the temps from ECM show it is possible

Enjoy this weekends warmth I know I will

time to crack out the BBQ again, could be some fab summer like weather comming up then

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows plenty of very nice unseasonable warmth during the next week or so across England and Wales with temps into the high teens celsius further s /se but with plenty of rain across the northwest tomorrow (especially cumbria where 100mm is expected), generally cooler for most of scotland and a relatively cooler blip on thursday but still warm in the south-east followed by a surge of warmth from the sw / s for friday and the weekend, a bit cooler next monday and then more warmth for tuesday. Temperatures later this week, especially the weekend could be into the low 20's celsius across the southern half of the uk and perhaps closer to 23/25c across southern / southeast england along with a good deal of dry and sunny weather further s / se...feeling more like summer apart from scotland from later this week! Enjoy.

Edited October 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

Latest GFS looks a bit more like the ECM for uppers at the weekend, but the tropical low looks a bit scary by Monday!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows what can only be described as a summery spell spreading up across most of england and wales, especially further s / se between fri / mon with very impressive warmth by mid october standards. I know some will moan about it but I hope it happens..charts look great further south with plenty of dry and sunny weather for around 4 days from later this week across most of southern uk...not often we see 564 dam thicknesses into mid october!.enjoy it guys.

Edited October 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

It's never going to happen but an interesting take by the gfs this evening. The wave on the front develops and intensifies over night Sunday whilst HP ridges north west and Ophelia joins the main trough to the NW and also intensifies.We certainly wouldn't want this action further east/

[Man With Beard]

Does Ophelia still have a tropical eye even this close to the UK?

[The Northern Ramper]

I find this weekends sypnotics as much use as snow in April, nice to see but pretty pointless.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

I find this weekends sypnotics as much use as snow in April, nice to see but pretty pointless.

April 1981 must have proved that incorrect for you and that was 22nd(ish) April.

[Daniel*]

UKMO with severe gales a notable storm, bear in mind GFS has a habit of overdeveloping so once you have conservative UKMO toying with it should be noticed. Sub tropical Ophelia very nasty on GFS 12z the evolution is incomparable to the years I've spent model watching, let's hope the UK/Ireland is not in her path.

 

Edited October 10, 2017 by Daniel*

[Met4Cast]

38 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO with severe gales a notable storm, bear in mind GFS has a habit of overdeveloping so once you have conservative UKMO toying with it should be noticed. Sub tropical Ophelia very nasty on GFS 12z the evolution is incomparable to the years I've spent model watching, let's hope the UK/Ireland is not in her path.

 

I'm lowkey hoping we are in her path, the weather couldn't get more boring at the moment. It's been far too long since we've had some decent autumnal storms, high winds, rough seas, lovely!