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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I saw he parted company with WB; is he involved with this site? There's a huge amount of free data including every one of the 50 ensemble runs.

 

Shame its all in old money. I learned celcius. Faranheit means nothing to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, Gael_Force said:

I saw he parted company with WB; is he involved with this site?

I'm not sure to be honest. I know he is producing stuff on his home computer and some of his tweets have linked to it.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Shame its all in old money. I learned celcius. Faranheit means nothing to me.

Fortunately we have modern technology at our fingertips ... converter is only a Google click away! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley, Kent
  • Location: Bexley, Kent
6 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Shame its all in old money. I learned celcius. Faranheit means nothing to me.

 

You can change from imperial metric in the settings (cog icon on right-hand side of menu bar) don't even have to reload the chart, automatically switches it for you 

Edited by Sardonixs
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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
3 minutes ago, Sardonixs said:

 

You can change from imperial metric in the settings (cog icon on right-hand side of menu bar) don't even have to reload the chart, automatically switches it for you 

I saw the icon now. Thanks!

Shows a high of 15c though for Lancashire? Can't be right can it? Another nordic website that shows the raw temps from the ECM is showing 19c for my neck of the woods. Somebody's wrong lol

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
28 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The US weather site that has been used on the hurricane threads has all the ECM data (free for now). 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/cornwall/surface-temperature-f/20171015-1800z.html

 

 

 

Awesome find! I see 74F in Cambridgeshire on Monday week so not far off what I thought

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

Now I see what those temps actually are. 21 on sunday? Sickening...

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
10 hours ago, knocker said:

But that 850mb temp 0nly translates to a surface temp of 19C.which of course is pretty good for this neck of the woods in October (22C in the east Midlands). The EPS means tonight are indicating the abdication of the surface high SE and veering the SW south westerly so still quite pleasant, particularly in the south.

Best remind myself that talking about specific temps 8-10 days down the road is a definite no no.

 I can only speak on behalf of my human inclination which tends to not be too far from the reality the models tend to understate warm temps ECM has that faculty especially I believe. Of course there's more to it but it's an exceptionally warm airmass for the time of year notwithstanding what temps would be achieved if..

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
8 hours ago, Daniel* said:

I can only speak on behalf of my human inclination which tends to not be too far from the reality the models tend to understate warm temps ECM has that faculty especially I believe. Of course there's more to it but it's an exceptionally warm airmass for the time of year notwithstanding what temps would be achieved if..

Good grief I was merely attempting a constructive comment on the structure of the the airmass. And just to clarify I rarely comment on other posts these days. And yes I'm aware model temps leave a lot to be desired but perhaps there are many others who don't have your expertise regarding lapse rates in the low levels 7-10 days down the line.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Today should see a quieter and drier day than yesterday (drier wouldn't be difficult in this neck of the woods) in a NW or W airstream. Although it will be cloudy in many places and chances of drizzle persisting in the west and south west.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.56692761802a5c3241eed9f8e6208bc2.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.deb253ae9cb7d92b7a16e99b36f8d71b.gif

Monday evening sees fronts approaching from the west and they cross the country overnight bringing some light rain to northern parts, and are in the North Sea by 06 along with a little wave that has formed on them. At the same time the next low is winging up from the SW and is south of Iceland 980mb.In the next 24 hours it deepens considerable to 962mb over eastern Iceland and the associated fronts are impacting N. Ireland and the western half of the UK  These also quickly run through bringing  rain to many areas on Weds and by 00 Thursday are over southern Scandinavia along with another little wave that has formed.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_10.thumb.png.a6810f39a061b242c9ebb4d0b3dcf524.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_14.thumb.png.851980d8d62d54a6558e3517be2e5126.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_17.thumb.png.c80bd0477553051f76e69783df47a2a4.png

The amplification that has been in the offing now begins and with a deep upper trough stationary in the Atlantic the surface depression moves north into Iceland and the associated front stalls and dissipates over northern Britain as the high pressure pushes north.

gfs_z500a_natl_22.thumb.png.3669c0844a7a2a8fcfe9a50884f1bcb6.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_24.thumb.png.b2d13b795a7ec425242d607a4826b9ca.png

Thus over Saturday the ridge becomes quite influential but further complications are in the pipeline. With the upper trough extending a fair way south little waves starting forming of the stalled front and track north east and by 00 Sunday one such is over Ireland In the next 12 hours it arrives just north of Scotland and in the process forces the fronts east across the country bringing rain to all  before clearing.away to the north east and allowing the next ridge to encroach from the south west.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_29.thumb.png.5a987650471bb83512c7eae03a9e28e2.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_31.thumb.png.cefa4cfe7df0424d2ce0a8ca84fff7ab.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_33.thumb.png.b993f5250cae424310685eb771934f50.png

So a changeable outlook but tending more settled later in the ten day period but still essentially a NW/SE split as the battle between the upstream energy and the ridging HP continues apace, Thus very dry in many areas with temps quite variable but trending above average further south but these very much depend on how the aforementioned battle pans out and thus the position and orientation of the surface high cell.

gfs_tprecip_uk2_41.thumb.png.53a7dba453ddb372d46e3673c544c956.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs with the stalling front just impacting N. Ireland and western Scotland Friday 12z.and a south westerly flow over the UK with the high pressure to the south/south east

Through Saturday the front dissipates and a dry quite warm day ensues with the SW maybe backing a tad as the main front attempts ingress from the west. By midday Sunday this front, accompanied by rain, has reached Ireland and western Scotland. The front dissipates as it continues to push east giving way to transient ridging before the next system arrives from the west on Tuesday.

The detail for next weekend and the following week is a long way from being nailed down so although the surface temps are quite variable albeit trending above average the precise surface analysis is critical.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.c22b90a64c00d8ccc83dd4cc15760778.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.thumb.png.23c15cabb937f8f2573944da94006135.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well next weekend seems to offer potential for some unusually igh temperatures, but a lot of this depends on the exact position of the high and the wind direction to maximise the northward extent of any warmth.

ECM again looks the most bullish about this.

ECM1-144.GIF?08-12   ECM1-168.GIF?08-12

Winds between the south and south west offer the best allignment for any warmth with clearer skies, but there also needs to be a reasonable amount of breeze, any slack flow will constrict temperatures due to there being much less daylight and of course the weaker strength of the sun compared to the summer months. This set up could deliver temperatures close to the mid-twenties if we get the ideal set up. But something close to 20C would be a more realsitic prediction. Halloween 2014 was an extreme event in temperatures of all the variables being perfect for maximising the temperatures.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A very pleasant week coming up for some parts of the UK with temps in the high teens rising into the low 20's towards the end

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.5b58fffc74b78d06194c0531f2345588.pngukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.150cfa13fcc21e8d653be4b5737e3ab3.pngukmaxtemp2.thumb.png.2dd6db43fc0200119db68a97afb3265d.png

ukmaxtemp3.thumb.png.cfd696a9d98e9cb6b590eede639b3c8b.pngukmaxtemp4.thumb.png.cc12586ae61ab41273f43a1537560b49.pngukmaxtemp5.thumb.png.695c940a8433a0eee12f965def50483b.png

ukmaxtemp6.thumb.png.0efb0f217ef46795c412c3c3481957af.png

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Some very warm looking charts for the time of year towards the end of the week.

I think some may be underestimating what's possible temperature wise in mid October in the right setup. The ECM chart for Saturday looks better than the warm spell of mid October 2001, when temps widely were in the low 20s.

Winds were relatively light during that spell too. On this occasion it looks like we may benefit from a warmer air mass than in 2001 too.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Just seen the upper temps at 5000 feet for Austria next week. Looks like my return will herald the warmth and rapid disappearance of the early Autumn snowfalls at height which isstill visible this morning at around 2000m.

C

ECMOPME00_240_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The anomaly charts (the 3 I use) have all shifted their emphasis over the past few days. From torugh and westerly Atlantic to more of a ridge developing from Europe into the UK and Scandinvia.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

For me,i am looking forward to a nice spell of weather next weekend(if it comes off)so i can get on with some final finishings to my decking:D

i know not to take the cfs too seriously but if this high can build further to the north,this is what could happen

from t240hrs 00z the high starts to build

cfsnh-0-240.png?00

from there into Scandinavia by 354hrs allowing a chilly easterly

cfsnh-0-354.png?00cfsnh-2-354.png?00

then from there a retrogression to Greenland allowing a northerly flow

cfsnh-0-468.png?00cfsnh-2-468.png?00

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=354&code=0&carte=1&mode=0&run=10

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=354&code=0&carte=1&mode=2&run=10

it can happen:cold-emoji:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

564 thickness making its way up to the UK in mid-October must be pretty rare?

168_thickuk.thumb.png.8cc753ab946b1c8aedacb0720c5693e7.png

If that was summer we'd be looking at some very high temps given the time of year we'll be more likely to see the mid 20's which is still very impressive for mid-October but not unheard of

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This wave depression the gfs develops on saturday is certainly not without interest  And also illustrates the key point which is how long will the UK remain under the influence of the undoubted warm air to the south?

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.d27f1c4a1b96788390f6ba873b265184.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_30.thumb.png.30cd3bf0368e894ce5e03cb3d85fb18f.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
39 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

564 thickness making its way up to the UK in mid-October must be pretty rare?

168_thickuk.thumb.png.8cc753ab946b1c8aedacb0720c5693e7.png

If that was summer we'd be looking at some very high temps given the time of year we'll be more likely to see the mid 20's which is still very impressive for mid-October but not unheard of

:)

ECM takes parts of Essex to 22c

bfed6b2d-9f53-40df-b876-a8d1adc7c3f1.thumb.png.dcc9de7f4c1d85371018f10fef7672dd.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The Euro high modelled on the charts certainly wafting some warmth north in the coming week.

ECM1-144.GIF?08-12ECM0-144.GIF?08-12

Pretty much Bartlett high territory which is the worst setup for cold fans in Winter but for now Indian Summer type conditions,especially further south.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
26 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The Euro high modelled on the charts certainly wafting some warmth north in the coming week.

ECM1-144.GIF?08-12ECM0-144.GIF?08-12

Pretty much Bartlett high territory which is the worst setup for cold fans in Winter but for now Indian Summer type conditions,especially further south.

Well that certainly isn't a pattern we want to see repeating as we head into winter! 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This evening's gfs not anywhere near developing the wave as previous but still running the scenario of it tracking north east and pushing the front through over Sunday and introducing ridging from the SW on Monday.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_28.thumb.png.67242abdfe85bc91d134dd805cd3b58c.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_30.thumb.png.302bde6eb1b9af668fd8b0bbfb274e44.png

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

Looking at the end of the ECM 12z, if I'm reading it right, then we would see some pretty chilly uppers. Maybe the pain of this Indian Summer muck would be worth it after all.

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